文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 2、法国与意大利10年期国债利差收窄至0附近 。法国与意大利10年期国债利差近期收窄至接近零，反映市场对两国财政和政治风险评估的趋同。法国10年期国债 利差上行主要因总统马克龙提前选举失败导致"悬浮议会"，阻碍新总理贝鲁推动438亿欧元财政紧缩预算案，而意大利则因梅洛尼的稳健政策，国债收益率相对稳 定，法意利差收窄表明投资者对两国风险预期的重新平衡。 3、美股周期性行业/防御性行业与ISM制造业PMI出现分化 。2023年6月以来，美股周期性行业/防御性行业与ISM制造业PMI出现分化。美股周期股相对于防御股 的表现持续走强，而衡量制造业景气度的ISM制造业PMI却持续疲软，或说明当前的资本支出繁荣可能高度集中于少数与人工智能相关行业，未能广泛传导至整体 经济，因此并未带来全面的制造业复兴。 4、全球基金经理环比增加在新兴市场以及股票上的配置 。根据2025年8月的美国银行全球基金经理调查，全球基金经理环比增加了在新兴市场、股票、公用事 业、日本以及能源上的仓位，同时降低 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - In March, global asset performance ranked as follows: commodities (2.62%) > global bonds (0.61%) > RMB (0.30%) > 0% > USD (-3.16%) > global stocks (-4.45%) [2] - The "Terrific 10" index of Chinese tech stocks increased by 58% from 2024 to March 2025, outperforming the "Magnificent 7" index of US tech stocks, which rose by 41% [3] - The A-share margin balance reached 2.55% of the A-share circulating market value, the highest since 2017 [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The correlation coefficient between the Russell 2000 index and the NFIB small business confidence index was 0.77 from 2016 to September 2024, indicating a close relationship [3] - Since October 2024, the NFIB small business confidence index has risen while the Russell 2000 index has underperformed the S&P 500 index [3] - The A-share industry rotation speed reached the 94th percentile of historical levels over the past 10 years as of March 2025 [8] Group 3: Investment Insights - 58% of global fund managers expect gold to be the best-performing asset in a scenario of comprehensive trade conflicts, followed by long-term US bonds (16%) and short-term US bonds (9%) [4] - The valuation of the "Magnificent 7" in the US shows a negative correlation with the actual yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds, indicating concerns over high valuations and liquidity [4] - The price of rebar has decreased by 13.8% since 2023, while copper prices have increased by 4.2%, reflecting differing demand in construction and manufacturing sectors [6]