证券研究报告 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：蒋珺逸 执业证书编号：S0600525040004 邮箱：jiangjy@dwzq.com.cn 2026年1月13日 摘要： 注：以上数据统计区间均为2026年1月3日-1月9日 2 A股连阳，谁在发力？ ——资金流向和中短线指标体系跟踪（十八） 证券分析师：陈刚 ✓ 宏观流动性与资金价格： ➢ 公开市场操作：央行公开市场大额净回笼，累计净回笼规模达1.66万亿元，主要系跨年前后逆回购集中到期所致 ➢ 货币市场利率：跨年后资金需求下降，宽松格局延续，价格维持稳定运行 ➢ 债券市场利率：股市"开门红"背景下，债市相对承压，曲线整体陡峭化 ➢ 外汇市场：人民币汇率进一步升值 ✓ 微观流动性与A股市场资金面：A股放量大涨，可跟踪资金净流入规模扩大 ➢ 散户：情绪升温，加速入场 ➢ 游资：活跃度创近半年来新高 ➢ 杠杆资金：大幅流入，融资余额创历史新高，市场风险偏好显著提升 ➢ 外资：北向成交热度上升，海外被动资金转为净流入，外资"做多"情绪升温 ➢ 公募：偏股基金新发强度回落，主动偏股型仓位整体回升；E ...

进入2026年的首周，A股市场气势如虹。 截至1月9日终盘，三大股指全线飘红，其中深证成指上涨1.15%，创业板指录得0.77%涨幅，而上证指数上涨0.92%，报4120.43点，这也是自2015 年7月24日失守4100点后，沪指时隔逾十年首次重返这一整数关口。 不仅如此，当日沪深两市合计成交额达到3.12万亿元，较前一交易日显著放量3224亿元，时隔近四个月再度突破3万亿元大关，这也是A股历史上 第五次单日成交额站上这一里程碑。 从元旦后5个交易日的表现来看，上证指数累计上涨3.82%，深证成指上涨4.40%，创业板指上涨3.89%，科创50上涨9.80%，沪深两市平均每日成 交额为2.85万亿元。 据新经济e线了解，沪指连阳点燃春季行情，进一步夯实"上证慢牛"的共识，整体上看，成长优于价值，小盘优于大盘。2月春节前是A股胜率最 高的日历特征，3月两会或审议"十五五"正式稿，政策催化有望增强，板块轮动、主题活跃或将延续。 有色、卫星成市场香饽饽 在A股情绪高涨的当下，多个领域的行业主题ETF都受到了资金的青睐。 Wind数据显示，截至1月9日，全市场598只行业主题ETF在5个交易日内累计获得资金净流入达 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a strong start in the first trading week of 2026, supported by improved macro expectations and ample liquidity, with major indices trending upwards [1] - The satellite and semiconductor equipment sectors led the market, with the satellite ETF tracking the China Satellite Industry Index achieving a weekly increase of 22.46%, indicating strong investor interest in these strategic emerging industries [1][2] - Multiple ETFs related to semiconductor materials and equipment also saw significant gains, with several products exceeding a 17% weekly increase, reflecting optimism driven by domestic control and global semiconductor cycle recovery [2] Group 2 - Despite the impressive performance of thematic ETFs, investors also focused on balanced allocations through broad-based indices and Hong Kong assets, with the Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial ETF seeing a net inflow of over 3.7 billion yuan, highlighting interest in the Hong Kong financial sector [2][3] - The overall market saw significant trading activity, with the total trading volume of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index surpassing 300 billion yuan, indicating high investor engagement in this representative index of China's new economy [3] - Technology growth and core assets emerged as focal points for many public fund institutions, with expectations for continued strength in the technology sector driven by breakthroughs in AI, humanoid robots, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4]

南财金融终端数据显示，昨日(1月7日，下同)上证综指日内上涨0.05%，收于4085.77点，最高4098.78点；深证成指日内上涨0.06%，收于14030.56点，最高 14111.18点；创业板指日内上涨0.31%，收于3329.69点，最高3351.22点。 昨日股票型ETF收益率中位数为0.0%。其中按照不同分类，规模指数ETF中易方达上证科创板100增强策略ETF收益率最高，为2.95%；行业指数ETF中国泰 中证煤炭ETF收益率最高，为3.8%；策略指数ETF中银河上证国有企业红利ETF收益率最高，为1.18%；风格指数ETF中南方上证科创板成长ETF收益率最 高，为1.75%；主题指数ETF中广发中证半导体材料设备主题ETF收益率最高，为7.82%。 | 类别 | 代码 | | --- | --- | | 股票型 | 159230.SZ | | 股票型 | 563670.SH | | 股票型 | 516100.SH | | 股票型 | 159851.SZ | | 股票型 | 159103.SZ | | 股票型 | 159257.SZ | | 股票型 | 515720.SH | | 股票型 | ...

01 1月7日，半导体板块表现强势，多个相关主题ETF单日涨超7%。此外，港股创新药、煤炭、稀土等主题ETF亦有不错表现。多只昨 日涨超4%的通用航空、金融科技等主题ETF今日回调。 02 2026年前两个交易日，资金多流向宽基、有色、黄金等涨幅明显的板块。在2025年底，就有不少资金涌入有色主题ETF。数据显 示，2025年的最后三个交易日，至少有超50亿资金涌入有色主题ETF，华夏中证细分有色金属产业ETF等多只有色主题ETF今年以来 实现"三连涨"。 03 1月7日，航空、港股互联网、金融科技等前两日涨幅明显的板块回调，多只相关ETF跌超2%。此外，多只港股汽车、券商、软件、 卫星、地产、油气等主题ETF亦表现疲软。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价(元) | 涨跌幅 (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159230.SZ | 通用航空ETF基金 | 1.33 | -4.39 | | 159792.SZ | 港股通互联网ETF | 0.88 | -2.56 | | 513770.SH | 港股互联网ETF | 0.54 | -2.54 | | 513040.SH | 港股通互 ...

Wind统计显示，截至1月6日，沪深两市ETF两融余额为1198.95亿元，较上一交易日增加27.87亿元。其 中，ETF融资余额为1122.3亿元，较上一交易日增加26.46亿元；ETF融券余额为76.65亿元，较上一交易 日增加1.41亿元。 具体来看，1月6日，有288只ETF获融资净买入，其中，海富通中证短融ETF获融资净买入额居首，净 买入12.02亿元；融资净买入金额居前的还有富国中债7—10年政策性金融债ETF、南方中证500ETF、华 泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏上证科创板50ETF、南方中证申万有色金属ETF、嘉实上证科创板芯片ETF 等。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock side employs a small-cap growth portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond rebalancing strategy of 10/90 and 20/80, projecting cumulative returns of 6.80% and 12.44% by 2025 respectively [1] - As of December 26, 2025, the total market size of fixed income plus funds reached 21,730.41 billion, with 1,147 products, and 233 of these funds achieved historical net value highs last week [2][18] - The report highlights that 25 new products were launched last week, with median performance across various fund types showing divergence, such as mixed bond type I (0.09%), mixed bond type II (0.29%), and flexible allocation type (0.31%) [2][14] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q4 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index yielding 2.88% since December, while the total wealth index of government bonds yielded -0.10% [3] - The report recommends focusing on specific industry ETFs for December 2025, including Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF and Huabao CSI Bank ETF, with a combined return of 3.08% last week [3] - The absolute return strategy performance tracking indicates that the stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.45% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy yielded 0.28% [4] Group 3 - The report details that the small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination performed exceptionally well, achieving a year-to-date return of 12.44% [4] - The report also notes that the conservative, balanced, and aggressive fund median returns were 0.14%, 0.27%, and 0.39% respectively for the week ending December 26, 2025 [2][14] - The absolute return strategy performance tracking shows that the combined strategy of stock-bond and industry ETF rotation yielded returns of 0.68% and 0.31% respectively last week [4]

Core Viewpoint - As of December 29, the total margin balance for ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 117.215 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 1.754 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 1: ETF Financing and Margin Data - The ETF financing balance stands at 109.869 billion yuan, down by 1.733 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The ETF margin short balance is 7.346 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 0.021 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Net Inflows in ETFs - On December 29, 223 ETFs experienced net financing inflows, with the top inflow being the Fortune China Hong Kong Internet ETF, which saw a net inflow of 80.7712 million yuan [1] - Other ETFs with significant net financing inflows include the Hai Fu Tong China Short Bond ETF, Guangfa China Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, Guotai Junan China All-Index Securities Company ETF, Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF, and Southern China Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock side employs a small-cap growth portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond 10/90 and 20/80 monthly rebalancing strategy, projecting cumulative returns of 6.36% and 11.56% by 2025 [1] - As of December 19, 2025, the total market size of fixed income + funds reached 21,722.64 billion, with 1,148 products, and 99 of these funds reached historical net asset value highs last week [2][9] - The report highlights that 13 new products were launched last week, with median performance across various fund types being relatively close, including mixed bond type I (0.08%), mixed bond type II (0.09%), and flexible allocation type (0.13%) [2][16] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q4 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index, the total wealth index of government bonds, and the AU9999 contract yielding 0.92%, -0.20%, and 2.88% respectively since December [3] - The industry ETF rotation strategy for December 2025 recommends focusing on specific ETFs, including Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF and Huabao CSI Bank ETF, with a combined return of 0.64% last week [3] - The report notes that the macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.01% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy achieved a return of 0.04% [4] Group 3 - The small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed the best performance with a year-to-date return of 11.56%, while PB earnings, high dividend, and small-cap value strategies yielded 4.68%, 4.30%, and 10.56% respectively [4] - The report indicates that the cumulative return for the small-cap growth portfolio, adjusted for timing strategies, reached 13.01%, while the PB earnings combined with small-cap growth strategy yielded a year-to-date return of 4.68% [4]

Group 1 - The total margin balance of ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 119.742 billion yuan as of December 22, an increase of 0.612 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The financing balance of ETFs was 112.374 billion yuan, up by 0.507 billion yuan, while the margin balance for securities lending was 7.368 billion yuan, increasing by 0.105 billion yuan [1] - On December 22, 257 ETFs experienced net financing inflows, with the top inflow being the Fortune China Government Bond 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF, which saw a net inflow of 460 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Other ETFs with significant net financing inflows included the Guotai CSI All Share Communication Equipment ETF, Invesco Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted ETF, Bosera CSI Convertible Bonds and Exchangeable Bonds ETF, Huaxia CSI A500 ETF, GF CSI Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, and Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF [1]