Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices opening lower and declining throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index dropping over 1% [1] - AI application concepts rose against the trend, while semiconductor concepts showed active performance, and certain robotics stocks strengthened [1] ETF Market Activity - On November 18, the non-monetary ETF market saw significant inflows, with E Fund's ChiNext ETF increasing by 366 million shares and a net inflow of 1.12 billion yuan [1] - Other notable inflows included Bosera's convertible bond ETF with an increase of 76 million shares and a net inflow of 1.03 billion yuan, and Huaxia's SSE government bond ETF with an increase of 7 million shares and a net inflow of 804 million yuan [1] Fund Performance - The top-performing ETFs by net inflow for the month included: - Huaan Gold ETF with a net inflow of 5.12 billion yuan [4] - GF's non-bank financial theme ETF with a net inflow of 3.43 billion yuan [4] - Huatai-PineBridge's Hang Seng Technology ETF with a net inflow of 3.38 billion yuan [4] - The overall ETF market as of November 18 had a total of 32,079.33 billion shares and a total scale of 56,955.37 billion yuan [4] Sector and Theme Trends - The real estate sector saw the largest increase in ETF shares, with two funds tracking it [4] - The largest increase in thematic ETFs was in the China Securities Battery theme, with four funds tracking it [4] - The Hang Seng Technology index had the largest number of tracking funds, totaling 13, while the highest return index was the China Securities Semiconductor, which increased by 2.22% [4]

Core Insights - The report suggests increasing allocation to large-cap value stocks while focusing on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and cyclical sectors [3][30] - The industry rotation model has been optimized to adapt to market conditions, incorporating high-frequency factors and enhancing the strategy's effectiveness [4][26] - The latest industry rotation model identifies non-bank financials, steel, media, non-ferrous metals, environmental protection, and telecommunications as preferred sectors [30][33] Market Review and Fund Flow Tracking - As of October 31, 2025, the total monthly trading volume of A-shares reached 36.78 trillion yuan, with a slight decrease in daily average trading volume by 10.49% compared to the previous month [12][18] - The average stock return dispersion for the past month was 2.41%, indicating a slight decline but remaining above the median level for the past six months [12][18] - The industry rotation speed has continued to expand, significantly exceeding the average level since 2015 [12][18] Industry Rotation Model and ETF Fund Configuration - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on large-cap value and cyclical sectors, particularly in the context of the current unclear market leadership [3][30] - The recommended ETF portfolio includes six funds: E Fund CSI 300 Non-Bank ETF, Guotai Junan CSI Steel ETF, GF CSI Media ETF, Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, Southern Yangtze River Protection Theme ETF, and Guotai Junan CSI All-Share Communication Equipment ETF [3][34] - The model's historical performance has shown consistent positive excess returns, outperforming major benchmark indices [5][42] Historical Performance and Model Effectiveness - The industry rotation model has maintained a strong performance over the years, achieving excess returns compared to industry averages, with a notable performance in 2025 [5][42] - The model's win rates over the past 1, 3, and 5 years are 83.33%, 69.44%, and 71.67% respectively, indicating its robustness [43][44] - The report highlights the significance of emotional and price-volume factors in capturing market dynamics, especially in weak market conditions [42][43]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11% to close at 3954.79 points, with a weekly high of 4025.7 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67% to 13378.21 points, reaching a peak of 13700.25 points [1] - The ChiNext Index gained 0.5%, closing at 3187.53 points, with a maximum of 3331.86 points [1] - Global markets saw most major indices rise, with the Nasdaq Composite up 2.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.75%, and the S&P 500 up 0.71% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.97%, while the Nikkei 225 Index surged by 6.31% [1] ETF Market Performance - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was 0.23% [2] - The highest weekly return among scale index ETFs was 2.4% for the Jiashi Zhongchuang 400 ETF [2] - The South China CSI New Energy ETF led industry index ETFs with a return of 5.94% [2] - The highest return in strategy index ETFs was 2.37% for the China Southern CSI All-Share Dividend Quality ETF [2] - The Jiashi CSI Battery Theme ETF achieved the highest return among thematic index ETFs at 7.75% [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top five stock ETFs by weekly return were: - Jiashi CSI Battery Theme ETF (7.75%) - Huatai-PB CSI Battery Theme ETF (7.56%) -招商中证电池主题ETF (7.52%) - 富国中证电池主题ETF (7.51%) - 浦银安盛中证光伏产业ETF (7.04%) [4][5] - The five stock ETFs with the largest declines were: - 国联安上证科创板芯片设计主题ETF (-5.35%) - 华安上证科创板芯片ETF (-5.11%) - 国泰上证科创板芯片ETF (-5.06%) - 博时上证科创板芯片ETF (-5.05%) - 南方上证科创板芯片ETF (-5.05%) [4][5] ETF Liquidity - Average daily trading volume for stock ETFs increased by 13.3%, with average daily trading volume rising by 46.7% and turnover rate increasing by 0.22% [6] ETF Fund Flows - The top five stock ETFs by fund inflow were: - 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF (inflow of 5.084 billion) - 华夏上证科创板50成份ETF (inflow of 1.647 billion) - 华夏上证50ETF (inflow of 1.535 billion) - 国泰中证全指证券公司ETF (inflow of 1.353 billion) - 嘉实上证科创板芯片ETF (inflow of 959 million) [9] - The five stock ETFs with the largest outflows were: - 鹏华中证酒ETF (outflow of 351 million) - 华安创业板50ETF (outflow of 334 million) - 汇添富中证电池主题ETF (outflow of 284 million) - 南方中证申万有色金属ETF (outflow of 279 million) - 嘉实中证稀土产业ETF (outflow of 256 million) [10] ETF Financing and Margin Trading - The financing balance for stock ETFs increased from 47.486 billion to 49.145 billion, while the margin balance rose from 2.5678 billion to 2.6069 billion [11] ETF Market Size - The total market size for ETFs reached 5699.032 billion, an increase of 6.878 billion from the previous week [15] - Stock ETFs accounted for 3724.471 billion, representing 65.4% of the total ETF market size [15][17] ETF Issuance and Establishment - No new ETFs were issued last week, but eight new ETFs were established, including 天弘国证港股通科技ETF and 摩根恒生港股通50ETF [18] Institutional Insights - 财通证券 is optimistic about the solid-state battery industry, expecting breakthroughs in technology and increased industrialization by 2025 [18] - 中国银河证券 believes traditional lithium battery equipment manufacturers will maintain their advantages in the solid-state battery market, suggesting a focus on developments in equipment and orders [18]

Market Overview - As of October 31, the total ETF margin balance in the two markets reached 118.932 billion yuan, an increase of 0.648 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The financing balance was 110.985 billion yuan, up by 0.935 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance decreased to 7.947 billion yuan, down by 0.287 billion yuan [1] - In the Shanghai market, the ETF margin balance was 83.393 billion yuan, increasing by 0.931 billion yuan. The financing balance rose to 76.404 billion yuan, up by 1.196 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance decreased to 6.989 billion yuan, down by 0.265 billion yuan [1] - In the Shenzhen market, the ETF margin balance was 35.539 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.283 billion yuan. The financing balance fell to 34.581 billion yuan, down by 0.260 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance decreased to 0.958 billion yuan, down by 22.3196 million yuan [1] ETF Margin Balances - The top three ETFs by margin balance as of October 31 were: 1. Huaan Yifu Gold ETF (8.113 billion yuan) 2. E Fund Gold ETF (5.690 billion yuan) 3. Huaxia Hang Seng (QDII-ETF) (4.116 billion yuan) [2] ETF Financing Amounts - The top three ETFs by financing amount on October 31 were: 1. Hai Futong Zhongzheng Short-term Bond ETF (2.059 billion yuan) 2. E Fund Hong Kong Investment Theme ETF (1.661 billion yuan) 3. Bosera Convertible Bonds and Exchangeable Bonds ETF (0.992 billion yuan) [4] ETF Net Financing Amounts - The top three ETFs by net financing amount on October 31 were: 1. Hai Futong Zhongzheng Short-term Bond ETF (0.285 billion yuan) 2. Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (0.142 billion yuan) 3. E Fund ChiNext ETF (0.119 billion yuan) [5] ETF Securities Lending Amounts - The top three ETFs by securities lending amount on October 31 were: 1. Guotai CES Semiconductor Chip Industry ETF (19.8833 million yuan) 2. Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (19.7935 million yuan) 3. Southern CSI Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals ETF (4.0323 million yuan) [6]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown significant recovery in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high of 4025.70 points by the end of October, leading to a strong performance of public equity funds and the emergence of numerous "doubling funds" [1][3] Group 1: Fund Performance - The average net value growth rate of actively managed equity funds for the first ten months reached 27.48%, with the best-performing funds exceeding 200% [3][5] - Over 98% of actively managed equity funds reported positive net value growth rates, with 705 funds achieving over 50% growth, and 34 funds surpassing 100% [7][5] - The top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, achieved a net value growth rate of 200.63%, capitalizing on opportunities in the cloud computing market [9][8] Group 2: Index and Sector Performance - Major indices such as the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index saw annual growth rates exceeding 50%, with the ChiNext Index at 48.84% [1][4] - The communication equipment sector emerged as a significant winner, with related index funds showing remarkable performance, including the Guotai CSI All-Index Communication Equipment ETF, which had a growth rate of 98.87% [12][13] Group 3: Investment Themes and Manager Insights - Fund managers are focusing on structural opportunities in sectors like AI, innovative drugs, and robotics, which have shown strong performance [7][14] - Investment strategies include a focus on domestic semiconductor equipment and energy storage, with managers highlighting the increasing production capacity of domestic storage chips and the growing demand for energy storage solutions [15][14]

Core Insights - Central Huijin shows strong commitment to broad-based ETFs, maintaining stable holdings while flexibly adjusting industry-themed ETFs [1][3] Group 1: Broad-based ETFs - Central Huijin's holdings in broad-based ETFs remained stable, with 15 out of 21 ETFs held at over 20% share remaining unchanged by the end of Q3 [1] - The number of ETFs held by Central Huijin with over 20% share increased to 16, with a total holding of 194.71 billion shares [1] - Major broad-based ETFs like Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF saw significant net value growth in Q3, with 22 broad-based ETFs growing over 10% [2] Group 2: Industry-themed ETFs - Central Huijin's asset management plans adopted a more flexible strategy for industry-themed ETFs, with lower holding ratios compared to broad-based ETFs [3] - The Huaxia Huijin asset management plan reduced holdings in two industry-themed ETFs, indicating a responsive approach to market trends [3] - Top-performing industry-themed ETFs included Huaxia CSI 5G Communication Theme ETF and Huabao CSI Electronic 50 ETF, with net value growth rates exceeding 40% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Central Huijin's investment strategy reflects a strong commitment to broad-based ETFs while demonstrating flexibility in sector-themed ETFs, indicating a dual approach to asset allocation [1][4]. Group 1: Broad-based ETFs - Central Huijin shows strong holding stability in broad-based ETFs, with 15 out of 21 ETFs held at the end of Q2 remaining unchanged in Q3, maintaining a shareholding ratio above 20% [2]. - The total holdings in broad-based ETFs reached 1,947.11 billion shares for Central Huijin Investment Co. and 1,626.04 billion shares for Central Huijin Asset Management Co. by the end of Q3 [2]. - Notable growth was observed in mainstream broad-based ETFs, with some experiencing net asset value growth rates exceeding 50% in Q3, and 22 ETFs showing growth rates over 10% [2][5]. Group 2: Sector-themed ETFs - Central Huijin's asset management plans exhibit a more flexible adjustment strategy in sector-themed ETFs, with significant reductions in holdings for specific ETFs [4]. - The two asset management plans reduced their holdings in the Guotai CSI 800 Automotive and Parts ETF and completely divested from the Huaxia Hang Seng China Enterprises High Dividend ETF [4]. - High-performing sector-themed ETFs included the Huaxia CSI 5G Communication Theme ETF and the Huabao CSI Electronic 50 ETF, with net asset value growth rates exceeding 40% [5]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Central Huijin's approach to broad-based and sector-themed ETFs reflects a macroeconomic strategy focused on long-term stability and value discovery, with a lower sensitivity to short-term market fluctuations [3][5]. - The adjustments in sector-themed ETFs are aimed at optimizing returns and managing risks by closely following market trends and industry conditions [5]. - The distinction in strategies for broad-based and sector-themed ETFs illustrates Central Huijin's management philosophy of adapting asset allocation based on economic cycles and industry dynamics [5].

Group 1 - Zhongkuang Resources (002738.SZ) reported its Q3 2025 results, with 34 institutional investors holding a total of 197 million shares, representing 27.27% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 25.26% of the shares, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, 11 funds increased their holdings, with a total increase ratio of 0.87%, including notable funds like Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF and Hongde Fengrun Mixed Fund [2] - Conversely, 6 public funds reduced their holdings, with a decrease ratio of 0.27%, including funds like Eastern New Energy Theme Mixed Fund and Southern CSI 500 ETF [2] - There were 9 newly disclosed public funds this period, while 390 funds were not disclosed compared to the previous quarter [2] - Foreign investment sentiment showed an increase in holdings from one foreign fund, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with an increase ratio of 0.14% [2]

Core Insights - Resource cycle assets, including non-ferrous metals, energy (oil, coal), chemicals, and steel industries, have been largely overlooked by investors in the past but have shown significant performance this year, particularly non-ferrous metals which have risen by 87.15% due to factors like supply-demand balance, inflation hedging, and risk aversion [1] - Different segments within the resource cycle have exhibited varied performance, with the energy sector being favored for its high dividend yield, while chemicals and steel have benefited from "anti-involution" policies, leading to a strong performance in Q3 [1] Fund Types Overview - Index funds are categorized into four types: - Non-ferrous metal funds, which have a long-term holding ratio of over 90%, are the most numerous and have high purity [4] - Rare earth funds, benefiting from China's tariff countermeasures, are critical resources used in new energy, electronics, and military applications [4] - Gold stock funds, which have seen some funds increase by over 90% this year, benefit from multiple factors including risk aversion and central bank gold accumulation [4] - Comprehensive resource funds, which have a balanced industry approach but lower growth compared to non-ferrous metal funds, typically have non-ferrous metals as the largest sector but below 60% [5] Performance of Index Funds - Key index funds in the resource cycle sector have shown varying performance year-to-date: - Non-ferrous metal ETFs have returns ranging from 68.52% to 76.41% [6] - Rare earth ETFs have returns around 67.14% to 73.86% [6] - Gold ETFs have a notable return of 90.33% [6] - Comprehensive resource ETFs have lower returns, with the highest at 42.18% [6] Active Fund Types Overview - Active funds are divided into three categories: - Theme funds primarily focus on non-ferrous metals, typically holding over 50% in this sector, with additional allocations to coal and chemicals [7] - Balanced funds maintain a non-ferrous metal holding ratio generally below 50%, allowing for some rotation in investments [7] - Quantitative funds, which are fewer in number, utilize a strategy combining subjective and quantitative methods to select resource stocks for excess returns [7] Performance of Active Funds - Active funds have also demonstrated significant returns year-to-date, with some notable performances: - The "万家周期驱动股票发起式A" fund has a return of 47.20% [8] - The "中欧周期优选混合发起式A" fund has a return of 64.30% [8] - The "东方兴瑞趋势领航混合A" fund, categorized as balanced, has a return of 70.94% [8] - Resource cycle funds exhibit considerable elasticity, with decision-making centered on identifying turning points and timing [8]

Market Outlook and ETF Strategy - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations and consolidation, with a cautious funding participation due to reduced trading volume and activity levels [2][6] - The volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index over the past 30 trading days is at a relatively low historical level, indicating insufficient momentum for a significant upward movement [2][7] - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on broad-based, strategic, and style ETFs due to the current market's rapid rotation and limited directional consensus among funds [2] Industry and Sector Trends - The technology growth sector is currently deemed to have a low probability of success, leading to its exclusion from the current allocation strategy, with a focus on defensive sectors instead [2][4] - The report recommends increasing allocations to defensive sectors such as coal and electricity ETFs, while also considering the performance support from the non-ferrous metals sector [4] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of maintaining some exposure to large-cap growth assets, particularly in technology, if market sentiment improves towards the end of the month [4]