绝对收益产品及策略周报（250721-250725） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 金 融 工 程 上周 136 只固收+基金创新高 固收+产品业绩跟踪。截至 2025 年 07 月 25 日，全市场固收+基金 规模 17757.14 亿元，产品数量 1173 只，其中 136 只上周净值创历 史新高。上周（20250721-20250725，下同）共新发 9 只产品，各类 型基金业绩中位数表现分化：混合债券型一级（-0.15%）、二级 （0.09%）、偏债混合型（0.19%）、灵活配置型（0.06%）、债券型 FOF（-0.10%）及混合型 FOF（0.26%）。按风险等级划分，保守型、 稳健型、激进型基金中位数收益分别为-0.09%、0.09%、0.29%。 大类资产配置和行业 ETF 轮动策略跟踪。1）大类资产择时观点。 2025Q3 逆周期配置模型给出的宏观环境预测结果为 Inflation，7 月 以来沪深 300 上涨 4.85%、中债国债指数跌幅 0.43%、黄金上涨 1.61%。2）行业 ETF 轮动观点。2025 年 7 月，行业 ETF 轮动策略 建议关注的行业 ETF ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the rationale behind the "bull market atmosphere," emphasizing that time is a friend to the bull market as it supports fundamental improvements and incremental capital inflows [3][4][6] - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to see supply-demand improvements starting in mid-2026, with a significant reduction in capital expenditures leading to a prolonged window for supply-demand balance [4][6][8] - The report notes that while conditions for residents to fully allocate equity are still lacking, the accumulation of profit effects has accelerated, with the fund-heavy stock index rising by 11% since June 23 [4][6][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the "high-cut low" market behavior is not just a temporary phase but is supported by the "anti-involution" trend and the catalytic effects of major hydropower projects [8][9][10] - It suggests that the current market is in a transitional phase, seeking to identify the main structural themes of the bull market, with opportunities to explore new structural chances [10][11] - The report identifies non-bank financials and innovative pharmaceuticals as clear mid-term opportunities, while also suggesting a strategic focus on Hong Kong stocks, particularly in internet leaders, new consumption, and high-dividend stocks [10][11]