编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态势，掘金新一年核 心配置机会与优质投资赛道。 在全球高波动、低相关性的市场中，单一资产的持有逻辑面临挑战，投资者开始寻找那些能够真正穿越周期、独立于股 市"牛熊"的配置工具。 陈家祥介绍，CTA策略具备低相关性、灵活性、"危机阿尔法"三大优势。"对投资者而言，将量化CTA纳入核心配置，本质 上是引入了一个独立于经济基本面和市场情绪的收益来源。它能够在不依赖股市'牛熊'的前提下，持续优化整个投资组合 的夏普比率。CTA策略凭借与传统资产的低相关性、双向交易机制及多市场覆盖能力，成为投资者构建韧性组合的核心工 具。其价值不仅体现在危机时期的风险对冲，更在于对趋势性机会的精准捕捉。无论是黄金的避险属性、国债的利率博 弈、'反内卷'发力，还是股指的多空转换，均为CTA策略提供了丰富的盈利机会。此外，当市场陷入不确定性时，这种'危 机阿尔法'的配置价值将愈发珍贵。"他说。 谈及策略配置与动态调整，作为风险偏好稳健、投资周期偏长的管理者，谢明表示，择时动态调整很难做到最优，更倾向 于基于风险因子模型的长期资产配置。从实盘 ...

近日，上海筑金投资有限公司（以下简称筑金投资）旗下曾业绩亮眼、净值一度达3.4元的期权"冠军产品"——"筑金馨睿壹号"出现明显回 撤，净值短期内降至1.2元左右，引发市场关注。 这款曾两度斩获全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛期权组冠军的产品缘何大幅回撤？筑金投资相关人士就此向中国基金报记者作出独家回应。 公司独家回应：策略具有高波动属性 已"妥善处理" 网传信息称，该产品曾在碳酸锂价格约12万元/吨时卖出看涨期权，但随后碳酸锂主力合约价格一路飙升至17万元/吨以上，单边极端上涨行 情导致产品净值大幅下滑。这一上涨行情也打破了不少机构此前对碳酸锂8万～12万元/吨的波动区间预测，让逆势交易的机构遭遇重创。 此次净值大跌，有市场传言指向碳酸锂市场的极端行情冲击。 作为筑金投资的核心产品，"筑金馨睿壹号"成立于2021年12月，凭借成熟的期权卖方策略长期表现亮眼，更是在2024年—2025年连续斩获全 国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛期权组冠军，2024年比赛期间其参赛账户在123个交易日获利3000余万元。同时，该账户也获得郑商所期权专 项奖一等奖、广期所工业硅专项奖优秀奖。 据悉，"筑金馨睿壹号"参赛账户以期权为主，融合 ...

【导读】"冠军产品"巨震背后：衍生品策略的收益诱惑与风控考量 近日，上海筑金投资有限公司（以下简称筑金投资）旗下曾业绩亮眼、净值一度达3.4元的期权"冠军产品"——"筑金馨睿壹号"出现明显回 撤，净值短期内降至1.2元左右，引发市场关注。 这款曾两度斩获全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛期权组冠军的产品缘何大幅回撤？筑金投资相关人士就此向中国基金报记者作出独家回应。 公司独家回应：策略具有高波动属性 已"妥善处理" 此次净值大跌，有市场传言指向碳酸锂市场的极端行情冲击。 网传信息称，该产品曾在碳酸锂价格约12万元/吨时卖出看涨期权，但随后碳酸锂主力合约价格一路飙升至17万元/吨以上，单边极端上涨行 情导致产品净值大幅下滑。这一上涨行情也打破了不少机构此前对碳酸锂8万～12万元/吨的波动区间预测，让逆势交易的机构遭遇重创。 针对产品净值的大幅波动，筑金投资相关人士接受了中国基金报记者的采访。 对于净值变化，该人士称："回撤是事实，这个我们也没啥可否认的。"关于回撤原因，他表示"原因复杂，涉及策略本身"，并指出市场传言 信息可能不全面。同时，他强调，该产品属于高波产品，策略具有较高波动属性，此次回撤并未触发产品合同约定 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Beta factor measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to the overall market returns, indicating its systematic risk[29] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the covariance between the stock's returns and the market returns - Divide this covariance by the variance of the market returns - Formula: $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ where $R_i$ is the return of the stock and $R_m$ is the return of the market[29] - **Evaluation**: The Beta factor is a widely used measure of risk, indicating how much a stock's price is expected to move relative to the market[29] 2. Factor Name: Liquidity Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Liquidity factor assesses the ease with which a stock can be traded without affecting its price, reflecting the market's depth and breadth[29] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the average daily trading volume - Calculate the bid-ask spread - Combine these metrics to form a composite liquidity score - Formula: $ \text{Liquidity} = \frac{\text{Average Daily Volume}}{\text{Bid-Ask Spread}} $[29] - **Evaluation**: The Liquidity factor is crucial for understanding the trading costs and potential price impact of large trades[29] 3. Factor Name: Profitability Quality Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Profitability Quality factor evaluates the financial health and earnings quality of a company, focusing on sustainable and high-quality earnings[29] - **Construction Process**: - Analyze various financial ratios such as return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and profit margins - Combine these ratios into a composite score - Formula: $ \text{Profitability Quality} = \frac{\text{ROE} + \text{ROA} + \text{Profit Margin}}{3} $[29] - **Evaluation**: This factor helps in identifying companies with strong and sustainable earnings, which are likely to perform well in the long term[29] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - **IR**: 0.45[29] - **Annualized Return**: 8.5%[29] - **Volatility**: 12.3%[29] 2. Liquidity Factor - **IR**: 0.38[29] - **Annualized Return**: 7.8%[29] - **Volatility**: 11.5%[29] 3. Profitability Quality Factor - **IR**: 0.52[29] - **Annualized Return**: 9.2%[29] - **Volatility**: 10.8%[29] Additional Factors and Their Performance 1. Factor Name: Skewness Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Skewness factor measures the asymmetry of the return distribution, indicating the potential for extreme positive or negative returns[33] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the third moment of the return distribution - Normalize by the cube of the standard deviation - Formula: $ \text{Skewness} = \frac{E[(R - \mu)^3]}{\sigma^3} $ where $R$ is the return, $\mu$ is the mean return, and $\sigma$ is the standard deviation[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor is useful for understanding the tail risks and potential for extreme outcomes in the return distribution[33] 2. Factor Name: Position Change Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Position Change factor tracks changes in the holdings of large institutional investors, indicating their sentiment and market positioning[33] - **Construction Process**: - Monitor the quarterly filings of institutional investors - Calculate the net change in positions for each stock - Formula: $ \text{Position Change} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Holdings} - \text{Previous Quarter Holdings}}{\text{Previous Quarter Holdings}} $[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor provides insights into the buying and selling activities of major market players, which can influence stock prices[33] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Skewness Factor - **IR**: 0.42[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.1%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.9%[33] 2. Position Change Factor - **IR**: 0.47[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.7%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.2%[33]