Group 1 - The report indicates that in January 2026, domestic asset BL strategy 1 achieved a return of 1.55%, while strategy 2 achieved 1.65%. The risk parity strategy yielded 0.94%, and the macro factor-based strategy returned 1.4% [1][4][19]. - The performance of major asset classes in January 2026 showed that gold led the gains with an increase of 18.48%, followed by the CSI 1000 at 8.68%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index at 8.61% [7][8]. - The report highlights the correlation between various asset classes, noting that the correlation between the CSI 300 and the total wealth index of government bonds was -32.28%, indicating a potential for diversification [13][15]. Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook as of January 2026 shows a manufacturing PMI of 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.5%, suggesting a weak economic recovery [43]. - Inflation indicators show that the CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, with expectations for a further increase to around 0.47% in January 2026 due to seasonal effects [44]. - The report discusses liquidity conditions, stating that the banking system remains "reasonably ample and slightly loose," which is expected to support economic stabilization in the first quarter [46]. Group 3 - The domestic asset BL strategy 1 has a maximum drawdown of 0.23% and an annualized volatility of 2.54%, while strategy 2 has a maximum drawdown of 0.35% and an annualized volatility of 2.64% [20][30]. - The risk parity strategy has a return of 0.94% with a maximum drawdown of 0.24% and an annualized volatility of 1.43%, indicating its stability compared to other strategies [39]. - The macro factor-based asset allocation strategy achieved a return of 1.4% with a maximum drawdown of 0.5% and an annualized volatility of 2.73%, reflecting its effectiveness in the current market environment [47].

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，累库主要表现在华 东地区，周期内外轮显性卸货 19.14 万吨，全部卸入华东。周内江苏沿江主流库 区提货减弱，浙江有烯烃重启，但总体在外轮供应补充下库存积累。华南地区周 内广东仅少量内贸补充，但主流库区提货减弱，因无外轮补充供应，因此库存去 库；福建地区周内无卸货，库存同步去库。 【宏观面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将介入并 购买委内瑞拉石油。由于特朗普周末表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"认真谈话"，释 放出与该欧佩克成员国局势降温的信号，WTI 原油暴跌。 商务部等 9 单位印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》。 【期现行情分析】 日内小幅震荡，支撑关注小时级别 60 日均线，中期继续关注库存持续去化 的兑现，可以适当关注超跌之后的低 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 【宏观面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将介入并 购买委内瑞拉石油。由于特朗普周末表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"认真谈话"，释 放出与该欧佩克成员国局势降温的信号，WTI 原油暴跌。 商务部等 9 单位印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》。 【期现行情分析】 受外盘影响，内盘集体走弱，期货日内下跌近 4%，短期反弹告一段落，存 在进一步下探可能，支撑关注小时级别 60 日均线，重点关注近期宏观因子和短 期情绪变化。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于财政部、隆众数据、Wind、 金十期货网站。 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 ...

Group 1: Asset Performance Overview - In 2025, major asset classes showed extreme differentiation under the "narrative trading" theme, with gold leading the performance, achieving a year-to-date (YTD) return of over 120%[4] - The YTD ranking of major assets as of December 12, 2025, was gold > ChiNext Index > STAR 50 > LME copper futures > European stocks > Hang Seng Index > Japanese stocks > MSCI Emerging Markets > NASDAQ > CSI 300 > global bonds > South China Agricultural Index > China bonds > USD > crude oil > long volatility strategy[4] - The "entrepreneurial board index + LME copper futures + London gold" combination achieved a YTD return of 130.3%, while the "CSI 300 + USD index + Brent crude oil futures" returned only -8.3%, resulting in a performance gap of 138.6%, the highest since 2013[5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The asset rotation speed in 2025 deviated from historical seasonal patterns, with significant fluctuations observed, particularly a sharp decline from July to September, contrasting with typical trends[6] - A simple multi-asset annual rebalancing strategy yielded a cumulative return of 17.5% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of positive returns, but lagged behind most stock market performances[6] - The classic asset rotation framework, which correlates asset rotation with economic cycles, was challenged in 2025 due to significant macroeconomic changes, suggesting a shift towards a "narrative + macro factor" pricing model for 2026[9] Group 3: Liquidity and Correlation Insights - Short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies asset price movements, indicating a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading[10] - The CSAD (Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation) metric indicated a strong correlation between narrative trading intensity and asset prices, with a notable decrease in asset correlation observed in late 2025[11] - The correlation between domestic equities and bonds in China remained negative throughout 2025, with a notable reduction in volatility differences, suggesting a potential shift towards equilibrium in the future[19] Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Indicators - The 2026 outlook suggests a potential "mirror" relationship with 2025, with expectations of a gradual loosening of narrative trading and a return to lower correlation among major assets[8] - The anticipated nominal GDP growth for 2026 is projected at 4.7% to 5.2%, with a focus on consumption recovery and fixed asset investment stabilization[32] - The performance of major asset classes in 2026 is expected to be influenced by inflation dynamics, with a ranking of asset probabilities indicating that Hong Kong stocks > A-shares > Renminbi > commodities > black metals > US stocks > China bonds > US bonds > gold > USD[30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that in 2025, major asset classes will experience extreme differentiation under the "narrative embrace," with gold leading the way in risk-reward ratio, and emerging markets outperforming developed markets in equities [1][18] - The asset rotation framework for 2025 differs from previous years, as "narrative trading" has changed the mapping relationship between major assets and economic cycles, indicating a potential shift in pricing dynamics for 2026 [2][25] - The short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies these price movements, suggesting a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading [3][27] Group 2 - The correlation between assets serves as a window to observe "trend stickiness" influenced by narratives, with three typical scenarios: trend stickiness, mean reversion, and drift towards new fundamentals [4][30] - In the context of U.S. assets, 2025 saw a typical "de-dollarization" narrative in the first half, with liquidity pricing power recovering in the second half, although narrative trading has not reversed [5][34] - For Chinese assets, there is a notable return to negative correlation between stocks and bonds, while the correlation between stocks and commodities is strengthening, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by AI narratives [6][38] Group 3 - The cross-analysis between China and the U.S. shows a divergence in the first half of 2025 under the "de-dollarization" narrative, while the second half saw a strong resonance between "AI narratives" and recovering liquidity pricing power [7][42] - Alternative assets like gold are experiencing a return to negative correlation with U.S. assets, while the relationship between gold and long-term developed country bonds has strengthened, indicating competitive dynamics in the context of de-dollarization [8][44] - The speed of response of Chinese assets to narrative shocks has accelerated, positioning them as "leaders" in global market changes, contrasting with the lagging response of U.S. and European assets [9][39]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the macro factor-based asset allocation strategy achieved a return of 4.25% in 2025, with a monthly return of 0.02% in November [1][46] - The performance of various domestic asset allocation strategies includes: - Domestic Asset BL Strategy 1: 4.04% YTD, 0.09% in November - Domestic Asset BL Strategy 2: 3.82% YTD, 0.13% in November - Domestic Asset Risk Parity Strategy: 3.68% YTD, -0.01% in November - Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Strategy: 4.25% YTD, 0.02% in November [1][19] Group 2 - In November 2025, the performance of major asset classes showed that gold and commodities increased, while equity assets experienced slight declines. Specifically, SHFE gold rose by 3.15%, the Nanhua Commodity Index by 0.53%, and the total wealth index of corporate bonds by 0.11%. Conversely, the CSI 300, CSI 1000, convertible bonds, Hang Seng Index, and the total wealth index of government bonds fell by 2.46%, 2.3%, 0.69%, 0.44%, and 0.34% respectively [8][9] - The correlation between major asset classes indicates that the CSI 300 and the total wealth index of government bonds had a correlation of -35.63%, while the total wealth index of government bonds and the Nanhua Commodity Index had a correlation of 41.79% [12][14] Group 3 - The macroeconomic outlook as of the end of November 2025 suggests a weak recovery in the economy, with the manufacturing PMI slightly rising to 49.2%, but still below the expansion threshold. The service PMI fell to 49.5%, indicating weakened domestic demand recovery [43] - Inflation data shows that the CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, primarily driven by seasonal increases in food prices, while the core CPI only slightly increased to 1.2%, indicating weak terminal demand [43][45]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement sector's profitability is primarily driven by overseas performance, particularly in regions like Africa, where companies such as Huaxin Cement are seeing significant advantages [3] - Domestic demand and prices have weakened compared to Q2, indicating a potential bottoming out in 2024, with supply-side restrictions being a key focus for industry improvement [3] - Shareholder returns are expected to improve due to industry stock incentive plans [3] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - There is a noticeable divergence in revenue growth rates among various sub-sectors and companies within the consumer building materials industry, influenced by real estate and local debt issues [4] - Companies are exploring new revenue paths through overseas expansion, market penetration, and renovation projects [4] - Price recovery and structural upgrades in the paint and waterproofing sectors are leading the way, although full realization will take time [4] Group 3: Glass and Fiberglass - The fiberglass industry is experiencing dual differentiation in production and sales, with larger companies maintaining better performance amid price wars [5] - The glass sector is nearing a turning point, with float glass prices stabilizing and photovoltaic glass showing signs of recovery due to industry self-discipline in production cuts [5] - The market characteristics of the glass sector, dominated by private enterprises, contribute to a more effective market-driven clearing mechanism [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period Views - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1][5] 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - After the meeting between the leaders of China and the US, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - bullish sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon. The escalation of the South American geopolitical conflict due to the US troop increase in the Caribbean Sea last weekend boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.95% to 457.7 yuan/barrel. It is expected that on Thursday, the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend [5]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. After the positive sentiment from the macro factors was digested, the market showed profit - taking. Although the geopolitical conflict in South America boosted the international crude oil premium, as the geopolitical sentiment was gradually digested, the contract maintained a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday night, with the price slightly down 0.19% to 464.3 yuan/barrel, and is likely to continue this trend on Wednesday [5]. Summary by Related Content Time - period and Trend Description - For the crude oil 2512 contract, the short - term (within one week), medium - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday trends are all described as "weak and volatile", with an overall view of "weak operation" [1]. Price Calculation and Trend Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered a "drop", 0 - 1% a "weak and volatile" decline, 0 - 1% increase a "strong and volatile" rise, and an increase greater than 1% a "rise". The "strong/weak and volatile" definition only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4]. Market Driving Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the positive sentiment from the macro factors was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened, leading to profit - taking. The geopolitical conflict in South America boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. As the geopolitical sentiment was digested, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract closed slightly lower on Tuesday night and is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is slightly bullish, and the medium - term view is slightly bearish, with a reference view of strong operation [5] - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract may maintain a slightly bullish trend on Monday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Performance - On the night of last Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained a slightly bullish trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.91% to 463.6 yuan/barrel [5] Driving Logic - After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, positive progress was made in economic and trade tariffs, but the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - bullish sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market showed profit - taking [5] - Due to the US increasing troops in the Caribbean Sea over the weekend, threatening Venezuela and escalating the South American geopolitical conflict, the international crude oil premium was boosted, which hedged geopolitical risks to a certain extent [5]