Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it discusses the performance of various strategies and their relative returns against benchmarks [36]. Core Insights - The industry rotation strategy utilizes four quadrants: macroeconomic, sentiment, technical, and economic conditions to construct factors that drive industry rotation. The strategy has shown strong performance since its inception in 2018, with annualized excess returns of 13.85% for single-factor multi-strategy and 7.28% for composite factor strategies by the end of 2025 [36]. - In 2025, the absolute return for the single-factor multi-strategy was 36%, with an excess return of 12.29% compared to an equal-weighted benchmark. The composite factor strategy achieved an absolute return of 38.1% with an excess return of 14.38% [36]. - The effectiveness of factors in 2025 showed significant differentiation, with macro factors performing exceptionally well, contributing over 23.8% in excess returns, while sentiment and economic factors contributed modestly at 4.1% and 7.1%, respectively. Technical factors underperformed with a -1.1% excess return [36]. Summary by Sections 1. Strategy Overview - The industry rotation strategy framework includes four dimensions: economic conditions, sentiment, technical indicators, and macroeconomic factors, which are used to construct scoring systems for industry selection [8][9]. 2. Factor Performance Analysis - Long-term performance of factors indicates that macro, sentiment, and economic factors have shown superior returns, with macro factors leading in long positions [19]. - Yearly performance of factors has demonstrated strong complementary effects, with at least one effective factor present each year [19]. 3. Weekly Performance of Strategy Holdings - In 2025, the strategies maintained a win rate above 50% throughout the year, with the first week post-recommendation showing weaker performance, followed by three weeks of stable positive excess returns [29][39]. 4. ETF Combination Strategy - The ETF strategy, which has been in place since 2014, has achieved approximately 11% annualized excess returns relative to the CSI 800 index, with an information ratio of 1.01 [34][39]. 5. Conclusion - The report concludes that the industry rotation strategy effectively utilizes multiple factors to achieve superior returns, particularly highlighting the strong performance of macroeconomic factors in 2025 [36].

Group 1 - The report indicates that in January 2026, domestic asset BL strategy 1 achieved a return of 1.55%, while strategy 2 achieved 1.65%. The risk parity strategy yielded 0.94%, and the macro factor-based strategy returned 1.4% [1][4][19]. - The performance of major asset classes in January 2026 showed that gold led the gains with an increase of 18.48%, followed by the CSI 1000 at 8.68%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index at 8.61% [7][8]. - The report highlights the correlation between various asset classes, noting that the correlation between the CSI 300 and the total wealth index of government bonds was -32.28%, indicating a potential for diversification [13][15]. Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook as of January 2026 shows a manufacturing PMI of 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.5%, suggesting a weak economic recovery [43]. - Inflation indicators show that the CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, with expectations for a further increase to around 0.47% in January 2026 due to seasonal effects [44]. - The report discusses liquidity conditions, stating that the banking system remains "reasonably ample and slightly loose," which is expected to support economic stabilization in the first quarter [46]. Group 3 - The domestic asset BL strategy 1 has a maximum drawdown of 0.23% and an annualized volatility of 2.54%, while strategy 2 has a maximum drawdown of 0.35% and an annualized volatility of 2.64% [20][30]. - The risk parity strategy has a return of 0.94% with a maximum drawdown of 0.24% and an annualized volatility of 1.43%, indicating its stability compared to other strategies [39]. - The macro factor-based asset allocation strategy achieved a return of 1.4% with a maximum drawdown of 0.5% and an annualized volatility of 2.73%, reflecting its effectiveness in the current market environment [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is waiting for the inflection point of inventory. In the intraday, it shows a slight fluctuation. Pay attention to the 60-day moving average at the hourly level for support. In the medium term, focus on the realization of continuous inventory reduction, and appropriately consider low-buying opportunities after over - decline, while also paying close attention to recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes. [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4721 billion tons, an increase of 14,600 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 47,600 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 33,000 tons. The inventory accumulation in ports this week was mainly in East China, with 191,400 tons of foreign vessels unloaded in the cycle, all in East China. In South China, there was only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment in Guangdong, and the提货 in the mainstream storage areas weakened. Due to the lack of foreign vessel supply, the inventory decreased, and there was no unloading in Fujian, so the inventory also decreased. [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - US President Trump stated that the share of Venezuela in oil profits has not been discussed, and India is about to intervene and buy Venezuelan oil. Trump's statement over the weekend that Iran is having "serious talks" with Washington, signaling a cooling of the situation with the OPEC member, led to a sharp drop in WTI crude oil. The Ministry of Commerce and 8 other units issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping for the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan". [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The market shows a slight intraday fluctuation. Pay attention to the 60 - day moving average at the hourly level for support. In the medium term, focus on the realization of continuous inventory reduction, and appropriately consider low - buying opportunities after over - decline, while also paying close attention to recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes. [3]

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of methanol futures has ended, with a nearly 4% decline during the trading day, and there is a possibility of further decline. Attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average at the hourly level, as well as recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4721 billion tons, an increase of 14,600 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 47,600 tons, while that in South China decreased by 33,000 tons. The inventory at methanol ports continued to accumulate this week, mainly in East China, with 191,400 tons of foreign vessels unloaded in the region. In South China, there was only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment in Guangdong, and the inventory decreased due to the lack of foreign vessel supply [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - US President Trump stated that the share of Venezuela in oil profits has not been discussed, and India is about to intervene and purchase Venezuelan oil. Trump's statement that Iran is having "serious talks" with Washington over the weekend signaled a de - escalation of tensions with the OPEC member, causing a sharp drop in WTI crude oil. The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping for Chinese New Year' Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Affected by the external market, the domestic market weakened collectively. The methanol futures fell nearly 4% during the trading day, ending the short - term rebound. There is a possibility of further decline. Attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average at the hourly level and recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes [3]

Group 1: Asset Performance Overview - In 2025, major asset classes showed extreme differentiation under the "narrative trading" theme, with gold leading the performance, achieving a year-to-date (YTD) return of over 120%[4] - The YTD ranking of major assets as of December 12, 2025, was gold > ChiNext Index > STAR 50 > LME copper futures > European stocks > Hang Seng Index > Japanese stocks > MSCI Emerging Markets > NASDAQ > CSI 300 > global bonds > South China Agricultural Index > China bonds > USD > crude oil > long volatility strategy[4] - The "entrepreneurial board index + LME copper futures + London gold" combination achieved a YTD return of 130.3%, while the "CSI 300 + USD index + Brent crude oil futures" returned only -8.3%, resulting in a performance gap of 138.6%, the highest since 2013[5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The asset rotation speed in 2025 deviated from historical seasonal patterns, with significant fluctuations observed, particularly a sharp decline from July to September, contrasting with typical trends[6] - A simple multi-asset annual rebalancing strategy yielded a cumulative return of 17.5% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of positive returns, but lagged behind most stock market performances[6] - The classic asset rotation framework, which correlates asset rotation with economic cycles, was challenged in 2025 due to significant macroeconomic changes, suggesting a shift towards a "narrative + macro factor" pricing model for 2026[9] Group 3: Liquidity and Correlation Insights - Short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies asset price movements, indicating a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading[10] - The CSAD (Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation) metric indicated a strong correlation between narrative trading intensity and asset prices, with a notable decrease in asset correlation observed in late 2025[11] - The correlation between domestic equities and bonds in China remained negative throughout 2025, with a notable reduction in volatility differences, suggesting a potential shift towards equilibrium in the future[19] Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Indicators - The 2026 outlook suggests a potential "mirror" relationship with 2025, with expectations of a gradual loosening of narrative trading and a return to lower correlation among major assets[8] - The anticipated nominal GDP growth for 2026 is projected at 4.7% to 5.2%, with a focus on consumption recovery and fixed asset investment stabilization[32] - The performance of major asset classes in 2026 is expected to be influenced by inflation dynamics, with a ranking of asset probabilities indicating that Hong Kong stocks > A-shares > Renminbi > commodities > black metals > US stocks > China bonds > US bonds > gold > USD[30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that in 2025, major asset classes will experience extreme differentiation under the "narrative embrace," with gold leading the way in risk-reward ratio, and emerging markets outperforming developed markets in equities [1][18] - The asset rotation framework for 2025 differs from previous years, as "narrative trading" has changed the mapping relationship between major assets and economic cycles, indicating a potential shift in pricing dynamics for 2026 [2][25] - The short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies these price movements, suggesting a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading [3][27] Group 2 - The correlation between assets serves as a window to observe "trend stickiness" influenced by narratives, with three typical scenarios: trend stickiness, mean reversion, and drift towards new fundamentals [4][30] - In the context of U.S. assets, 2025 saw a typical "de-dollarization" narrative in the first half, with liquidity pricing power recovering in the second half, although narrative trading has not reversed [5][34] - For Chinese assets, there is a notable return to negative correlation between stocks and bonds, while the correlation between stocks and commodities is strengthening, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by AI narratives [6][38] Group 3 - The cross-analysis between China and the U.S. shows a divergence in the first half of 2025 under the "de-dollarization" narrative, while the second half saw a strong resonance between "AI narratives" and recovering liquidity pricing power [7][42] - Alternative assets like gold are experiencing a return to negative correlation with U.S. assets, while the relationship between gold and long-term developed country bonds has strengthened, indicating competitive dynamics in the context of de-dollarization [8][44] - The speed of response of Chinese assets to narrative shocks has accelerated, positioning them as "leaders" in global market changes, contrasting with the lagging response of U.S. and European assets [9][39]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the macro factor-based asset allocation strategy achieved a return of 4.25% in 2025, with a monthly return of 0.02% in November [1][46] - The performance of various domestic asset allocation strategies includes: - Domestic Asset BL Strategy 1: 4.04% YTD, 0.09% in November - Domestic Asset BL Strategy 2: 3.82% YTD, 0.13% in November - Domestic Asset Risk Parity Strategy: 3.68% YTD, -0.01% in November - Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Strategy: 4.25% YTD, 0.02% in November [1][19] Group 2 - In November 2025, the performance of major asset classes showed that gold and commodities increased, while equity assets experienced slight declines. Specifically, SHFE gold rose by 3.15%, the Nanhua Commodity Index by 0.53%, and the total wealth index of corporate bonds by 0.11%. Conversely, the CSI 300, CSI 1000, convertible bonds, Hang Seng Index, and the total wealth index of government bonds fell by 2.46%, 2.3%, 0.69%, 0.44%, and 0.34% respectively [8][9] - The correlation between major asset classes indicates that the CSI 300 and the total wealth index of government bonds had a correlation of -35.63%, while the total wealth index of government bonds and the Nanhua Commodity Index had a correlation of 41.79% [12][14] Group 3 - The macroeconomic outlook as of the end of November 2025 suggests a weak recovery in the economy, with the manufacturing PMI slightly rising to 49.2%, but still below the expansion threshold. The service PMI fell to 49.5%, indicating weakened domestic demand recovery [43] - Inflation data shows that the CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, primarily driven by seasonal increases in food prices, while the core CPI only slightly increased to 1.2%, indicating weak terminal demand [43][45]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement sector's profitability is primarily driven by overseas performance, particularly in regions like Africa, where companies such as Huaxin Cement are seeing significant advantages [3] - Domestic demand and prices have weakened compared to Q2, indicating a potential bottoming out in 2024, with supply-side restrictions being a key focus for industry improvement [3] - Shareholder returns are expected to improve due to industry stock incentive plans [3] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - There is a noticeable divergence in revenue growth rates among various sub-sectors and companies within the consumer building materials industry, influenced by real estate and local debt issues [4] - Companies are exploring new revenue paths through overseas expansion, market penetration, and renovation projects [4] - Price recovery and structural upgrades in the paint and waterproofing sectors are leading the way, although full realization will take time [4] Group 3: Glass and Fiberglass - The fiberglass industry is experiencing dual differentiation in production and sales, with larger companies maintaining better performance amid price wars [5] - The glass sector is nearing a turning point, with float glass prices stabilizing and photovoltaic glass showing signs of recovery due to industry self-discipline in production cuts [5] - The market characteristics of the glass sector, dominated by private enterprises, contribute to a more effective market-driven clearing mechanism [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period Views - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1][5] 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - After the meeting between the leaders of China and the US, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - bullish sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon. The escalation of the South American geopolitical conflict due to the US troop increase in the Caribbean Sea last weekend boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.95% to 457.7 yuan/barrel. It is expected that on Thursday, the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend [5]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. After the positive sentiment from the macro factors was digested, the market showed profit - taking. Although the geopolitical conflict in South America boosted the international crude oil premium, as the geopolitical sentiment was gradually digested, the contract maintained a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday night, with the price slightly down 0.19% to 464.3 yuan/barrel, and is likely to continue this trend on Wednesday [5]. Summary by Related Content Time - period and Trend Description - For the crude oil 2512 contract, the short - term (within one week), medium - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday trends are all described as "weak and volatile", with an overall view of "weak operation" [1]. Price Calculation and Trend Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered a "drop", 0 - 1% a "weak and volatile" decline, 0 - 1% increase a "strong and volatile" rise, and an increase greater than 1% a "rise". The "strong/weak and volatile" definition only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4]. Market Driving Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the positive sentiment from the macro factors was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened, leading to profit - taking. The geopolitical conflict in South America boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. As the geopolitical sentiment was digested, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract closed slightly lower on Tuesday night and is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5].