Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report mainly presents the fundamental data, market trends, and production - inventory situation of asphalt. It shows that the asphalt market has price fluctuations, changes in trading volume and positions, and different trends in production and inventory [1][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of BU2509 was 3,573 yuan/ton, down 2.32% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,549 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of BU2510 was 3,556 yuan/ton, down 2.60% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,530 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: The trading volume of BU2509 was 169,138 lots, with an increase of 51,344 lots, and the position was 93,052 lots, a decrease of 23,728 lots. The trading volume of BU2510 was 140,311 lots, with an increase of 69,332 lots, and the position was 211,967 lots, a decrease of 5,741 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total asphalt warehouse receipts in the market were 81,140 lots, with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 09) was 212 yuan/ton, with a change of 85 yuan compared to the previous day. The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 17 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan. The Shandong - South China spread was 195, with a change of 10, and the East China - South China spread was 190 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,785 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Operating and Inventory Rates**: As of August 4, 2025, the refinery operating rate was 34.40%, down 0.51% from July 31, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.74%, down 0.13% from July 31 [1]. 3.2 Market Trends - **Trend Intensity**: The asphalt trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak bearish sentiment [8]. - **Graphical Trends**: The BU - SC is in high - level shock, the South China warehouse receipts are stable, the asphalt index total position shows a certain trend, the Shandong basis is generally strong, the asphalt follows the oil price to fluctuate within a range, and the regional spot price spread fluctuates and stabilizes [2][11][13]. 3.3 Production and Inventory - **Production**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 56.7 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (2.4%) compared to the previous week, and an increase of 12.4 tons (28%) compared to the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to July was 1,927.1 tons, an increase of 163.2 tons (9.2%) compared to the same period last year [14]. - **Inventory**: As of August 4, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 72.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4% compared to July 31. The inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 187.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% compared to July 31 [14].

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: July 4, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking fluctuated and declined, the near-month spread decreased, and the EW weakened rapidly. The 380 8-9 spread dropped to $4.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU07 internal and external spread oscillated at -$5, and the 09 spread oscillated at +$10. There was a large amount of delivery goods in the near month, maintaining a loose pattern. [4] - The 0.5 cracking in Singapore rebounded, the spread decreased to around $5, the basis weakened slightly, and oscillated at $6. The LU internal and external spread remained strong, with the 09 oscillating at around $17. [7] - This week, the onshore inventory in Singapore increased, the floating storage oscillated at a high level, the low-sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, the onshore inventory in ARA increased slightly, but the inventory was still at the lowest level in the same period in history, the floating storage inventory oscillated, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased. The onshore inventory in Fujairah increased significantly, and the floating storage decreased slightly. [7] - This week, the geopolitical risk was lifted. Recently, the fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, and Egypt's net imports reached a new high. The high-sulfur fundamentals were in an oscillating pattern. Recently, the high-sulfur was still in the peak power generation season, the near-month internal and external spreads of FU were suppressed, the valuation was low, and the game continued. Subsequently, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Middle East. The LU internal and external spreads were running at a high level, and pay attention to the domestic production situation. [7] Data Summary Rotterdam Market | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF Swap M1 | +$2.03 | | 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | +$6.35 | | HSFO-Brent M1 | -$0.30 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | +$10.10 | | VLSFO-GO M1 | -$3.75 | | LGO-Brent M1 | +$1.48 | | VLSFO-HSFO M1 | +$4.32 | [3] Singapore Market Swap Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | +$2.80 | | 180cst M1 | +$3.46 | | VLSFO M1 | +$4.37 | | GO M1 | +$0.94 | | 380cst-Brent M1 | -$0.39 | | VLSFO-GO M1 | -$2.59 | [6] Spot Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | +$0.30 | | FOB VLSFO | +$3.62 | | 380 Basis | -$1.50 | | High-sulfur Internal and External Spread | -$1.5 | | Low-sulfur Internal and External Spread | +$0.2 | [3] Domestic Market FU Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | +18 | | FU 05 | +14 | | FU 09 | +27 | | FU 01 - 05 | +4 | | FU 05 - 09 | -13 | | FU 09 - 01 | +9 | [3] LU Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | +27 | | LU 05 | +25 | | LU 09 | +27 | | LU 01 - 05 | +2 | | LU 05 - 09 | -2 | | LU 09 - 01 | 0 | [4]