证券研究报告 | 2025 年 06 月 06 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|知往鉴今系列——大类资产复盘笔记（202505）》 1、大类资产总览：A 股震荡修复，中债回升，商品回落。1）A 股：5 月 主要宽基指数多数收涨，风格方面金融、消费领涨，环保、医药生物行业 领涨。2）债券：5 月长短端收益率分化，长端利率上行，短端利率下行， 期限利差走阔。3）商品：5 月商品多数收涨，黄金冲高回落，原油走牛。 4）海外权益：全球股指普遍收涨，美股三大指数中纳指领涨，亚太股指 多数大涨。5）美债：5 月美国 20 年期国债"发飞"，10 年期利率一度升 至 4.5%以上，期限利差小幅收窄，中美利差走阔。2、A 股：降准降息落 地，景气回升需继续验证。1）基本面：一季度数据开局良好，但 4 月基 本面表现偏弱。2）宏观流动性：社融继续回暖，5 月 7 日央行行长宣布 下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，降准降息 落地，DR007 月均值 5 月报 1.60%，较 4 月均值下行 13BP，货币继续边 际转松。3）微观资金：5 月南下资金探底回升，获利了结后再度进场， ...

天风证券（601162）股份有限公司赵博轩,刘奕町,王泽宇近期对光威复材（300699）进行研究并发布了研 究报告《大飞机自主可控持续加速，航空装备无人化拉动需求增长》，下调光威复材目标价至48.6元，给 予买入评级。 光威复材 高性能碳纤维龙头，军民双轮驱动发展 光威复材作为国内碳纤维国产化先驱，自1992年成立以来构建了从原丝到复合材料的全产业链布局，覆盖 军工与民用双领域，掌握湿喷湿纺、干喷湿纺等核心技术，产品广泛应用于航空航天、风电能源等高精尖 场景。公司通过股权架构优化平衡战略定力与资本弹性，依托六大业务板块协同发展，形成技术突破、产 能升级与市场拓展的闭环生态，奠定行业标杆地位。 多维协同筑牢增长基本盘，技术升级驱动抗周期韧性 公司2019-2024年营收规模由17.15亿元增至24.50亿元(CAGR7.38%)，归母净利润从5.22亿元增至7.41亿元 (CAGR7.25%)，在行业产能过剩与产品价格下行压力下业绩有所波动，但公司研发聚焦T1100级碳纤维等 关键技术突破，支撑新一代武器装备、低空经济、民机配套等新兴场景布局，其整体盈利能力保持行业领 先。我们认为，公司依托纵向产业链协同优势、 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in high-performance carbon fiber, benefiting from dual growth drivers in military and civilian sectors, with a comprehensive industry chain established since its founding in 1992 [1][13]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.715 billion yuan in 2019 to 2.450 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 7.38%, while net profit is expected to rise from 522 million yuan to 741 million yuan in the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 7.25% [2][28]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for domestic carbon fiber in the aviation sector, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the need for self-sufficiency in key materials [3][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established a full industry chain from precursor to composite materials, covering both military and civilian applications, and has developed core technologies such as wet and dry spinning [1][18]. - It has a diversified customer base and a strong technological barrier in high-end equipment, which positions it well to expand market share during industry consolidation [2][28]. Market Dynamics - The demand for high-performance domestic carbon fiber is entering a strategic expansion phase, particularly in the aviation sector, as the application ratio of composite materials in domestic aircraft is expected to increase significantly [3][46]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in its T800 grade products, with a 495% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, indicating strong market traction [3][52]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 898 million yuan, 1.073 billion yuan, and 1.275 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.08 yuan, 1.29 yuan, and 1.53 yuan [4][60]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 28.61, 23.97, and 20.16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][60]. Business Segments - The company operates across six major business segments, including carbon fiber, general new materials, energy new materials, composite technology, precision machinery, and optical technology, which collectively support its growth strategy [18][19]. - The carbon fiber segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a projected increase in demand from both military and civilian applications, particularly in the context of new energy and low-altitude economy developments [28][59].