纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-10 节后纯苯库存再度下降，苯乙烯库存压力仍存 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-13元/吨（-73）。纯苯港口库存9.10万吨（-1.50万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费126美元/吨（+4 美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费115美元/吨（+7美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差69.6美元/吨（-5.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货 -M2价差35元/吨（+10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1900元/吨（+110），酚酮生产利润-332元/吨（+51），苯胺生产利润478元/吨（+140）， 己二酸生产利润-1325元/吨（-19）。己内酰胺开工率96.00%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率78.00%（-1.00%），苯胺开工率 77.16%（+1.12%），己二酸开工率66.90%（+4.00%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差-28元/吨（+7元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-486元/吨（+36元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存201900吨（+4400吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存116400吨（+9600吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开 ...

福建LNG接收站：优化工序保证工期 双节不停工 建设抢进度 国庆中秋双节期间，福建省石化行业多个重点项目不停工，建设者全力以赴抢工期、抓安全、保质量， 以奋斗之姿为"十四五"收官画上完美句号。 古雷石化基地：机械轰鸣焊花闪烁 双节期间，福建省和中国石化重点项目、总投资超40亿元的中石化南化苯胺—橡胶助剂产业链项目建设 现场依旧机械轰鸣、焊花闪烁，2000多名工人坚守在岗位一线，一派热火朝天的奋战景象。 "作为一名南京人，能跨越千里来到古雷，参与中石化这一重点项目的建设，并亲眼见证它在我和同事 们手中一天天'成长'，我感到非常荣幸。"该项目助剂分部施工负责人刘亚军说，自项目开工以来，他 便从南京远赴古雷，以前能每天相见的家人，如今几个月才能团聚一次。但看着这个重点项目从无到 有、拔地而起，他心中充满了自豪与成就感。 该项目落户古雷，是南化公司到异地升级优势产业的关键之举，项目于去年启动，目前已全面进入设备 安装高峰期，预计2026年建成投产。项目投产后将与南京原址项目共同形成苯胺、橡胶助剂、甲基异丁 基酮细分领域行业最大的产能，增强了苯系列特色精细化工产业链竞争力，为古雷开发区稳链固链、强 链补链贡献重要力量。 ...

华鑫证券近日发布化学制品研究报告：合成氨上涨8.58%，锂电池电解液上涨5.71%，苯 胺上涨3.90%，无水氢氟酸上涨3.80%。截至9月26日收盘，布伦特原油价格为70.13美元/ 桶，较上周上涨5.17%；WTI原油价格为65.72美元/桶，较上周上涨4.85%。预计2025年国际 油价中枢值将维持在65-70美金。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 合成氨、苯胺等涨幅居前，天然气、硫酸等跌幅较大本周涨幅较大的产品：合成氨（河 北金源，8.58%），锂电池电解液（全国均价/磷酸铁锂电解液，5.71%），苯胺（华东地 区，3.90%），无水氢氟酸（华东地区，3.80%），金属硅（云南金属硅3303，2.88%），萤 石粉-湿粉（华东地区，2.76%），DMF（华东，2.58%），涤纶工业丝（1000D/192F）（高 强型，2.35%），燃料油（新加坡高硫180cst（美元/吨)，2.22%），醋酸（华东地区， 2.07%）。 分子行业表现超预期，例如润滑油行业等。此外，建议重视草甘膦、化肥、进口替代、纯内 需、高股息资产等方向的投资机会。具体建议如下：首先是建议重视有望进入景气周期的草 甘膦行业。草甘膦行 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing mixed performance, with some products seeing price increases while others decline, influenced by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Key products with significant price increases this week include synthetic ammonia (up 8.58%), lithium battery electrolyte (up 5.71%), and aniline (up 3.90%), while natural gas saw a notable decline of 7.90% [1][2] - The overall chemical industry remains weak, with varying performance across sub-sectors, largely due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [2] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas such as glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [2] - Specific recommendations include focusing on the glyphosate sector, which is showing signs of recovery, and selecting companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand in the chemical industry, particularly for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer being highlighted for their robust market positions [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in sectors focusing on domestic demand, high dividends, and import substitution [1][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the chemical industry is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with some products like synthetic ammonia and lithium battery electrolytes seeing price increases, while others like natural gas and sulfuric acid are declining [6][20] - The report suggests that the international oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and economic conditions [5][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-dividend stocks such as Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC due to their asset quality and dividend yield [5][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The chemical industry has shown varied performance over the past month, with a 0.3% increase in the basic chemical sector compared to a 2.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [1] - Key products that saw price increases include synthetic ammonia (up 8.58%) and lithium battery electrolytes (up 5.71%), while natural gas saw a significant decline of 7.90% [6][20] Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are likely to enter a growth cycle, such as glyphosate, and emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential [7][20] - Specific companies recommended include Jiangshan Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in the glyphosate sector [7][20] - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and pesticide sectors, suggesting companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xin Yangfeng as potential investment opportunities [20] Price Trends - The report notes that while some chemical products are rebounding in price, the overall industry remains under pressure due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [6][20] - The report indicates that the PTA market is experiencing downward pressure, with prices declining due to weak demand from downstream polyester sectors [33][34] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts and investment ratings, including Xin Yangfeng, Senqilin, and Ruifeng New Materials, all rated as "Buy" [9][10][20]

苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差-17元/吨（+17元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-470元/吨（-18元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存197500吨（+11000吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存106800吨（+8300吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率73.2%（-0.2%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润204元/吨（+35元/吨），PS生产利润-116元/吨（+15元/吨），ABS生产利润42元/吨（+32 元/吨）。EPS开工率55.25%（-6.49%），PS开工率59.10%（-2.10%），ABS开工率70.00%（+0.20%）。 市场分析 纯苯方面，国内存量装置开工仍偏高，下游节前提货采购量有所回落，港口库存去库速率快速放缓。纯苯下游开 工底部快速回升，己内酰胺、酚酮、苯胺等开工均底部快速回升，但MDI、PA6、锦纶长丝库存压力仍存以及双酚 A开工不佳，节后纯苯下游该三个品种的中长期采购持续性存疑。 纯苯去库速率放缓，苯乙烯再度累库 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-25元/吨（-2）。纯苯港口库存10.60万吨（-0.10万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费116 ...

纯苯苯乙烯周报 | 2025-09-28 EB下游开工及成品库存：EPS开工率55.25%（-6.49%），PS开工率59.10%（-2.10%），ABS开工率70.00%（+0.20%）， UPR开工率33.00%（-1.00%），丁苯橡胶开工率70.43%（+0.00%）；EPS样本企业库存31300吨（-100），PS样本企业 库存89360吨（-360），ABS样本企业库存243600吨（+4900），丁苯橡胶样本企业库存20500吨（+600）。 EB库存：苯乙烯华东港口库存186500吨（+27500），苯乙烯工厂库存203274吨（-13009）。 纯苯库存及供应：纯苯华东港口库存10.70万吨（-2.70）。纯苯开工率79.27%（+0.92%），加氢苯开工率63.99% （+4.05%）。 纯苯下游负荷回升，苯乙烯未能兑现去库 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 EB港口到港及提货：华东苯乙烯到港量5.60万吨（+3.50）；华东苯乙烯港口提货量2.85万吨（-1.00）。 EB供应：苯乙烯工厂开工率73.24%（-0.20%），其中：华东苯乙烯开工率69.96%（-3.01%），山东苯乙 ...

纯苯、苯乙烯周报 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：国庆节前空单止盈 | | • | 纯苯国产：9月检修损失量6万吨，10~11月之后检修逐步降低。回到3~5万吨左右。9月新装置投产压力偏大，5.6万吨兑现。10、11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 月份分别有2.5、4.1万吨新产能落地。主要是裕龙石化，吉林石化，湖南石化，广西石化等。 | | | • | 纯苯进口：目前9月进口维持40-43万吨预期，四季度进口预期抬升，10月维持50万吨进口预期，11-12月维持高进口预期。外盘仍然 | | | • | 供应压力偏大。 苯乙烯：9月检修集中兑现，7.9万吨主要是广东石化和浙石化的影响相对较大。10~11月仍然有月均6万吨的检修，主要是镇海炼化和 | | | | 卫星石化影响。与此同时，苯乙烯的投产仍然在持续落地。预计11月吉林石化和广西石化均能落地，新增月均产量4万吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, domestic existing plants are operating at a relatively high rate, import arrivals are slowing down, downstream pre - holiday procurement is good, port inventory is decreasing faster, and the basis is strengthening. The downstream开工 rate is rising from the bottom, but overall开工 remains low, and the long - term procurement sustainability of downstream is questionable [3]. - For styrene, the开工 of PS and EPS has declined,提货 has decreased, arrivals are concentrated, port inventory has accumulated again, the basis has weakened further, and the开工 is waiting to rise. Overseas, the开工 of EB in Europe and America is still low, but the price difference between Europe and America and China is narrowing, and the paper - cargo locked import window for EB has opened [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), and the styrene main contract basis is - 18 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton). The pure benzene spot - M2 spread is 35 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Price Differences - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 120 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 103 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea price difference is 38.5 dollars/ton (- 4.0 dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 542 yuan/ton (- 4 yuan/ton) and is expected to be gradually compressed [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 10.70 million tons (- 2.70 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream pure benzene is rising from the bottom. Styrene East China port inventory is 186,500 tons (+27,500 tons), East China commercial inventory is 98,500 tons (+20,500 tons), and the operating rate is 73.2% (- 0.2%) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 179 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 91 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 32 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 55.25% (- 6.49%), PS operating rate is 59.10% (- 2.10%), ABS operating rate is 70.00% (+0.20%) [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 2005 yuan/ton (- 10), phenolic ketone production profit is - 320 yuan/ton (- 124), aniline production profit is 186 yuan/ton (+124), adipic acid production profit is - 1369 yuan/ton (- 14). Caprolactam operating rate is 93.66% (+4.97%), phenol operating rate is 78.00% (+7.00%), aniline operating rate is 74.92% (+2.97%), adipic acid operating rate is 61.40% (- 1.20%) [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for BZ, short - hedge EB on rallies. - Basis and inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None [4]

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-09-25 EB港口库存继续累积 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-12元/吨（+18）。纯苯港口库存10.70万吨（-2.70万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费126美元/吨 （-7美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费108美元/吨（-7美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差42.5美元/吨（+5.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差45元/吨（+45元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1995元/吨（-105），酚酮生产利润-196元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润62元/吨（+91）， 己二酸生产利润-1356元/吨（-50）。己内酰胺开工率88.69%（+2.48%），苯酚开工率71.00%（+2.00%），苯胺开工 率71.95%（+6.74%），己二酸开工率62.60%（-1.60%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差-3元/吨（-3元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-550元/吨（+12元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存186500吨（+27500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存98500吨（+20500吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率73.4%（-1.5 ...