Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 1 - month report finalized the production of US soybeans in 2025, with the output significantly lower than market expectations. The South American supply pressure, especially from Brazil's expected bumper harvest, is large. The only relatively positive factor is the potential impact of high - temperature and drought on Argentina's soybean yield [7][57][58]. - In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased again. There was pre - holiday stockpiling demand and concerns about supply in March - April. The terminal demand is relatively stable [7][58]. - The 05 basis of the spot may be strong in February. The CBOT soybean futures may trade in a narrow range in the next month, and the upward space of domestic soybean meal 05 contract is limited. It is recommended to treat it as a narrow - range shock before the holiday, and be cautiously bearish after the rebound under the neutral assumption of soybean auction quantity and Argentina's weather [7][58][59]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Upstream: Planting and Export 1.1 Soybean Supply - The USDA January report finalized the production of US soybeans in 2025. Although the yield was high, the export decreased and the ending inventory increased, making the supply - demand relationship more relaxed. The USDA estimated that Brazil's soybean output would reach 178 million tons and Argentina's would reach 4.85 million tons [9]. - Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, and the overall progress is normal with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Argentina has basically completed sowing and will enter the critical growth stage in February. The weather in southern Brazil and Argentina is a concern [10]. 1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - The US Department of Agriculture expects Brazil's soybean exports in 2025/26 to reach 114 million tons, with good export prospects and likely to set a new record. The export volume in December and the cumulative export volume from October showed significant year - on - year growth [17][18]. - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that US soybean exports in 2025/26 will be 42.86 million tons, a year - on - year decrease. As of January 22, the cumulative export sales volume was lower than the same period last year, and the export completion rate was also lower [19][20][22]. Mid - stream: China's Soybean Import and Pressing 2.1 China's Soybean Import - In December, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans. The cumulative import from October to December in 2025/26 increased by 10.6% year - on - year. It is expected to set a new record in 2025. The arrival volume is expected to decrease seasonally, and the port inventory will decline until April [27][30]. 2.2 China's Soybean Pressing and Inventory - As of January 29, the spot and futures margin of Brazilian soybeans were 350 yuan/ton and 16 yuan/ton respectively, and those of US Gulf soybeans were 38 yuan/ton and - 296 yuan/ton. The start - up rate and pressing volume are expected to remain low before the Spring Festival. The soybean inventory is in the destocking stage, and attention should be paid to the impact of soybean auctions from February to March [40][42]. Downstream: Feed and Aquaculture 3.1 Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory - As of January 23, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 815,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 111%. In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased again due to pre - holiday stockpiling and concerns about future supply [44][47]. 3.2 Pig Farming - As of January 23, the average profit per pig for self - breeding and self - raising was 43.35 yuan/head, and that for purchasing piglets was 115.84 yuan/head. The pig slaughter volume from January to May is estimated, and attention should be paid to the support of the high inventory in the first quarter for soybean meal demand. The national industrial feed production in 2025 maintained a good trend, and it is expected to be close to that in 2025 in the first half of 2026 [50][51]. 3.3 Poultry Farming - At the end of January, the price of white - feather broilers was slightly strong, and the market supply was sufficient. The egg - laying hen farming profit recovered in January, and the inventory has shown a downward trend, and it is expected to decline slowly [54][55]. Later Outlook and Strategy - The supply pressure in the new year is still large. The demand for soybean meal increased in January, and the terminal demand is relatively stable. The spot basis may be strong in February. Futures may trade in a narrow range, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish after the rebound under neutral assumptions [57][58][59]. - Strategies: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be strong in February; futures speculators can expect a narrow - range shock before the holiday and higher volatility after the holiday, and be cautiously bearish after the rebound under neutral assumptions [59]. - Important variables: China's continued purchase of US soybeans, Argentina's weather, and the frequency and quantity of imported soybean auctions [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International soybeans: In November, US soybeans fluctuated mainly. China's continuous purchases and the low domestic inventory - to - sales ratio in the US provided support, but the high global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio pressured the upside space. The Brazilian premium increased by about 10 cents per bushel in November, and the cost of soybean arrivals fluctuated within a narrow range. The main soybean - growing areas in South America were drier than usual in November, but rainfall recovered in early December. However, the southeastern part of Brazil and most of the Argentinean产区 are expected to have less rainfall, and the growing conditions are not yet ideal. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from a situation of both supply and demand increasing to a situation of supply decreasing and demand increasing. The predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio of global soybeans has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to the current 28.94%, which provides a bottom support for global soybeans. But since it is still relatively high year - on - year, it is not enough to generate a market with rich planting profits on the CBOT soybean futures. It is expected that the cost of soybean arrivals will still fluctuate mainly without significant problems in South American weather [10]. - Domestic double - meal: In November, the domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated, the basis fluctuated, and the futures price fluctuated narrowly following the cost. The oil mills' profit from buying ships was slightly in the red. The domestic soybean meal transactions were okay, and the提货 was at a relatively high level. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were relatively high year - on - year, and the de - stocking progress was slow. As of December 2nd, institutional statistics showed 8.76 million tons in September, 7.73 million tons in October, 6.52 million tons in November, and 4.85 million tons in December. The current ship - buying progress indicates that the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline. Coupled with the current large - scale提货 of domestic soybean meal, the domestic soybean - related basis has certain support [10]. - Overall view: In terms of import cost, the new - crop soybean production globally has been marginally reduced, and the total production has been equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared with the 24/25 season, which means that the bottom of the import cost may have appeared, but more significant production cuts are needed for the upside space. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory is at the highest level in previous years, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the de - stocking season, there is certain support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the situation of cost support and pressured crushing profit [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Fundamental assessment**: The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still high, and it is expected that the total production will be equal to the total consumption. The 01 - contract basis is neutral, the price of US soybeans in January is at the middle of the range, the crushing profit on the soybean meal 05 - contract after deducting processing fees is slightly low, and the 3 - month premium is slightly higher than the seasonal level. The domestic supply inventory is high but starting to de - stock, the current apparent consumption is high, and the Sino - US trade relationship has eased [11]. - **Trading strategy advice**: For the unilateral strategy, it is expected to fluctuate. The core driving logic is that the new - crop soybean production globally has been marginally reduced, and the total production has been equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared with the 24/25 season, which means that the bottom of the import cost may have appeared, but more significant production cuts are needed for the upside space. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory is at the highest level in previous years, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the de - stocking season, there is certain support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the situation of cost support and pressured crushing profit. No advice is provided for the arbitrage strategy [12]. 3.2 Supply - side - **US soybean planting progress**: Diagrams of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate from 2021 - 2025 are provided [33]. - **Weather conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. Diagrams of weighted precipitation in Argentinean and Brazilian soybean - growing areas with forecasts are provided, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America from July to September and its occurrence frequency, and the impact of La Nina on South American climate [37][38][40]. - **US soybean export progress**: Diagrams of the total amount of signed export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of signed export contracts of US soybeans in the current market year, and the cumulative value of US soybean exports to China in the current market year are provided [51]. - **China's oilseed imports**: Diagrams of monthly soybean imports and forecasts, and monthly rapeseed imports and forecasts are provided [54]. - **China's oil mill crushing situation**: Diagrams of the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills (from October to the next September) and the rapeseed crushing volume of major oil mills are provided [56]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed inventory situation**: Diagrams of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills are provided [60]. - **Protein meal inventory situation**: Diagrams of the soybean meal inventory and forecasts of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills are provided [63]. - **Protein meal crushing profit**: Diagrams of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseed in coastal areas are provided [65]. 3.4 Demand - side - **Soybean meal demand**: Diagrams of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in the crop year of major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal are provided [67]. - **Breeding profit**: Diagrams of the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are provided [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean arrivals from Brazil in May, June, and July are expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The purchase progress for June is 92.7%, July is 74.4%, and August is 29.7%. The U.S. soybean planting progress is fast, with dry weather expected in the next two weeks and poor conditions in Nebraska. There is speculation about floods in the Argentine soybean - producing areas, but the expected impact is limited [5][6]. - From the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before September, the poultry inventory remains high, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and the downstream transactions have increased with better提货 [6]. - As of last week, the soybean inventory decreased slightly and is currently at a high level in the same period of previous years. The soybean meal inventory increased to 20.69 tons and is still low. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased but is still at a low level [6]. - Overall, the sowing progress of U.S. corn in some regions is slow, and there may be a shift to soybean planting. The soybean - corn ratio has risen recently, which may affect the expected reduction of U.S. soybean planting area. The U.S. soybean planting progress is fast, and there is no short - term weather speculation. The U.S. soybean price is under pressure and falls, but the increase in Brazilian discounts weakens the impact of the U.S. soybean price decline. The domestic soybean meal is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation, and the short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in different regions (Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Dalian, etc.) shows different values and changes on May 29, 2025. For example, in Zhangjiagang, the 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) is - 32, - 11 on different time points [3]. - The basis of rapeseed meal in different regions (Guangdong, etc.) also shows different values and changes. For example, in Guangdong, the rapeseed meal spot basis is - 148, - 14 [7]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread and the spread of the main contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are provided, such as the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal is 430, - 20, and the spread of the main contract is 344, - 13 [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - The inventory data of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills in China from 2020 - 2025 are presented, showing the changes in inventory over time [5]. - The inventory data of soybean meal in major oil mills in China from 2020 - 2025 are provided, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased to 20.69 tons as of last week [5][6]. - The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises from 2020 - 2025 is shown, and currently, it is still at a low level [5][6]. 3.4开机 and压榨情况 - The opening rate and soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in China from 2020 - 2025 are presented, showing the changes in these indicators over time [5].