Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 1 - month report finalized the production of US soybeans in 2025, with the output significantly lower than market expectations. The South American supply pressure, especially from Brazil's expected bumper harvest, is large. The only relatively positive factor is the potential impact of high - temperature and drought on Argentina's soybean yield [7][57][58]. - In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased again. There was pre - holiday stockpiling demand and concerns about supply in March - April. The terminal demand is relatively stable [7][58]. - The 05 basis of the spot may be strong in February. The CBOT soybean futures may trade in a narrow range in the next month, and the upward space of domestic soybean meal 05 contract is limited. It is recommended to treat it as a narrow - range shock before the holiday, and be cautiously bearish after the rebound under the neutral assumption of soybean auction quantity and Argentina's weather [7][58][59]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Upstream: Planting and Export 1.1 Soybean Supply - The USDA January report finalized the production of US soybeans in 2025. Although the yield was high, the export decreased and the ending inventory increased, making the supply - demand relationship more relaxed. The USDA estimated that Brazil's soybean output would reach 178 million tons and Argentina's would reach 4.85 million tons [9]. - Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, and the overall progress is normal with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Argentina has basically completed sowing and will enter the critical growth stage in February. The weather in southern Brazil and Argentina is a concern [10]. 1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - The US Department of Agriculture expects Brazil's soybean exports in 2025/26 to reach 114 million tons, with good export prospects and likely to set a new record. The export volume in December and the cumulative export volume from October showed significant year - on - year growth [17][18]. - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that US soybean exports in 2025/26 will be 42.86 million tons, a year - on - year decrease. As of January 22, the cumulative export sales volume was lower than the same period last year, and the export completion rate was also lower [19][20][22]. Mid - stream: China's Soybean Import and Pressing 2.1 China's Soybean Import - In December, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans. The cumulative import from October to December in 2025/26 increased by 10.6% year - on - year. It is expected to set a new record in 2025. The arrival volume is expected to decrease seasonally, and the port inventory will decline until April [27][30]. 2.2 China's Soybean Pressing and Inventory - As of January 29, the spot and futures margin of Brazilian soybeans were 350 yuan/ton and 16 yuan/ton respectively, and those of US Gulf soybeans were 38 yuan/ton and - 296 yuan/ton. The start - up rate and pressing volume are expected to remain low before the Spring Festival. The soybean inventory is in the destocking stage, and attention should be paid to the impact of soybean auctions from February to March [40][42]. Downstream: Feed and Aquaculture 3.1 Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory - As of January 23, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 815,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 111%. In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased again due to pre - holiday stockpiling and concerns about future supply [44][47]. 3.2 Pig Farming - As of January 23, the average profit per pig for self - breeding and self - raising was 43.35 yuan/head, and that for purchasing piglets was 115.84 yuan/head. The pig slaughter volume from January to May is estimated, and attention should be paid to the support of the high inventory in the first quarter for soybean meal demand. The national industrial feed production in 2025 maintained a good trend, and it is expected to be close to that in 2025 in the first half of 2026 [50][51]. 3.3 Poultry Farming - At the end of January, the price of white - feather broilers was slightly strong, and the market supply was sufficient. The egg - laying hen farming profit recovered in January, and the inventory has shown a downward trend, and it is expected to decline slowly [54][55]. Later Outlook and Strategy - The supply pressure in the new year is still large. The demand for soybean meal increased in January, and the terminal demand is relatively stable. The spot basis may be strong in February. Futures may trade in a narrow range, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish after the rebound under neutral assumptions [57][58][59]. - Strategies: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be strong in February; futures speculators can expect a narrow - range shock before the holiday and higher volatility after the holiday, and be cautiously bearish after the rebound under neutral assumptions [59]. - Important variables: China's continued purchase of US soybeans, Argentina's weather, and the frequency and quantity of imported soybean auctions [60].

蛋白粕月报 2025/12/05 南美天气较为正常， 大豆进口成本震荡 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 04 利润及库存 02 期现市场 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 03 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 国际大豆：11月美豆震荡为主，中国持续购买及美国国内库销比偏低提供支撑，但全球大豆库销比较高施压上方空间。11月巴西升贴水调涨 10美分/蒲左右，大豆到港成本窄幅震荡。南美大豆主要种植区11月同比偏干，不过12月初降雨恢复，然而巴西东南部及阿根廷大部分产区 预计降雨量持续较少，产区还未达到一帆风顺。USDA预测全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需增，全球大豆预测年度库销比从2024年 10月的33%落回到目前的28.94%，这为全球大豆提供了底部支撑，但因为同比仍较高，尚不足以产生CBOT大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预 计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港成本仍然震荡为主。 国内双粕：11月国内豆粕现货震荡，基差震荡，期货盘面跟随成本窄幅波动，油厂买船利润小幅亏 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 l数据日报 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0021658 2025/5/30 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号:F03110419 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) 涨跌 指标 5月29日 ==== 19/20 ====- 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 == - 23/24 - 24/25 大连 38 2500 -21 2000 -2 天津 -11 1500 1000 日照 -62 -21 500 43%豆粕现货基差 张家港 -32 -11 -500 (对主力合约) 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 09/21 05/26 06/26 N9-NI 东莞 -62 -21 ----- 2020/21 ---- 2019/20 ----- 2021/22 == 2022/23 1000 800 600 400 200 -200 04/24 05/25 03/24 06/25 07/26 08/26 01/21 02/21 M9-RM9 M9-1 -42 10 18/19 ===== 19/2 ...