Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic market is in a stockpiling cycle, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to continue to face pressure [7][8] - The expectation of Sino - US talks boosts the CBOT July US soybean futures, while the decline of Brazilian premium is relatively limited. If the talks fail, the Brazilian premium is expected to be strong, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [8] - With the expectation of rising import costs, the M01 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [8] 3. Summary by Related Information 3.1 Basis Data - As of July 21, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was - 49, - 89 in Tianjin (down 13), - 169 in Rizhao; the spot basis of 43% soybean meal (against the main contract) was - 169 in Zhangjiagang (down 3), - 209 in Dongguan (down 3), - 159 in Zhanjiang (down 13), - 169 in Fangcheng (down 3); the spot basis of rapeseed meal in the east was - 147 (up 5) [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report, such as the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong being 342, and the futures spread of the main contract being 280 [7] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1768, the soybean CNF premium is shown in the chart, and the import soybean futures gross profit was 258 yuan/ton, down 2 [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have increased [7][8] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%. In the next two weeks, parts of Kansas and Nebraska will face high - temperature and drought weather, which may be unfavorable to soybean growth, but the overall weather in other areas is normal, which is conducive to soybean growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal stockpiling is expected to continue until September [7] - **Demand**: In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry breeding is expected to be maintained, which supports the feed demand. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, the proportion of addition in feed has increased, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal at low prices has been good [7][8]