投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ]数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 1000 800 800 600 400 200 200 2026/3/2 15 120 90 60 30 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 全国主要油厂开机率(%) 全国主要油厂大豆压榨量(万吨) === 2020 ===== 2021 ===== 2022 ===== 2023 ===== 2024 ====== 2024 == - 2025 2026 2026 100 250 80 200 开机和压榨情况 60 150 100 50 20 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 01/01 11/07 1 ...

投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2026/2/26 | 指标 | | 2月25日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2500 | == == | ===== 17/18 == | ----- 18/19 == | | ===== 19/20 24/25 | ====== 20/21 -25/26 | | | 大连 | 389 | -30 | 2000 | | | | | | | | | 天津 日照 | 349 269 | -50 -30 | 1500 500 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1000 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 269 | -30 | -500 | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of US soybean oil drives the rebound of US soybeans, but the performance of US soybeans is still expected to be under pressure. With favorable weather in South America and the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans, there will be selling pressure later. Recently, the futures market fluctuates following reserve - related rumors, and the 005 contract is expected to remain relatively weak in the later period. Attention should be paid to domestic customs policies and reserve auctions [7]. - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On December 23, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 395, down 4; in Rizhao it was 335, down 4; in Tianjin it was 355, down 4. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 355, down 4 [4]. - The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 124, down 10; the M1 - 5 was 302, down 9 [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 396, down 8; the price difference between the main contracts was 533 [5]. Supply Situation - According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season will reach 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 90.3%. As of December 3, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 44.7%. Short - term weather is favorable. There are concerns about the supply of soybeans and soybean meal in the first quarter of next year in China due to rumored customs delays. Domestic imported soybeans have started to be auctioned with high premium [6]. Demand Situation - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short - term, supporting feed demand. However, breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal, and the提货 performance is good [6][7]. Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and the inventory of soybean meal is being depleted slowly. The pressure of spot supply is still large. It is expected that the inventory will be depleted more quickly from December to January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic market is in a stockpiling cycle, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to continue to face pressure [7][8] - The expectation of Sino - US talks boosts the CBOT July US soybean futures, while the decline of Brazilian premium is relatively limited. If the talks fail, the Brazilian premium is expected to be strong, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [8] - With the expectation of rising import costs, the M01 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [8] 3. Summary by Related Information 3.1 Basis Data - As of July 21, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was - 49, - 89 in Tianjin (down 13), - 169 in Rizhao; the spot basis of 43% soybean meal (against the main contract) was - 169 in Zhangjiagang (down 3), - 209 in Dongguan (down 3), - 159 in Zhanjiang (down 13), - 169 in Fangcheng (down 3); the spot basis of rapeseed meal in the east was - 147 (up 5) [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report, such as the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong being 342, and the futures spread of the main contract being 280 [7] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1768, the soybean CNF premium is shown in the chart, and the import soybean futures gross profit was 258 yuan/ton, down 2 [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have increased [7][8] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%. In the next two weeks, parts of Kansas and Nebraska will face high - temperature and drought weather, which may be unfavorable to soybean growth, but the overall weather in other areas is normal, which is conducive to soybean growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal stockpiling is expected to continue until September [7] - **Demand**: In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry breeding is expected to be maintained, which supports the feed demand. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, the proportion of addition in feed has increased, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal at low prices has been good [7][8]