光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心小幅上移，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.34 美元至 | | | | 65.45 美元/桶，涨幅 0.52%。布伦特新换 9 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 | | | | 美元至 67.11 美元/桶，涨幅 0.55%。SC2508 以 498.0 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 1.0 元/桶，涨幅为 0.20%。 | | | | OPEC+预计将在 7 月 6 日会议上宣布 8 月每日增产 41.1 万桶的 | | | | 计划，并指出贸易协议改善需求前景部分抵消了这一影响。美国 | | | | 总统特朗普表示，他没有考虑延长各国与美国谈判贸易协议的 7 | | | | 月 9 日截止日期，并对与日本能否达成协议表示怀疑。特朗普表 | | | 原油 | 示，美方已经和日本打过交道，不确定是否会达成协议。特朗普 | 震荡 | | | 表示，他可以对从日本进口的商品征收"30%或 35%或任何我们 | | | | 确定的 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a weak state, with prices fluctuating around 3332, and there is potential for a rebound if the market weakens further [2][4] - Long-term, gold remains a solid asset for inflation protection and risk aversion, despite pressures from geopolitical stability and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance [2] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with a significant drop in prices and a critical resistance level at 3350, suggesting a continued weak outlook unless this level is breached [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market has stabilized after two days of decline, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 1.1% to $67.89 per barrel, and WTI crude oil increasing to $65.08 [5] - The reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories by 4.23 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, indicates strong refinery demand and supports oil prices [5] - Technical analysis suggests a mixed outlook for oil, with short-term bearish trends but potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are surpassed [6]

M9-1 M9-RM9 -33 -9 ---- 18/19 ----- 19/20 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------ 22/23 24/25 23/74 RM9-1 276 1200 -14 1000 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 800 370 30 现货价差(广东) 400 豆粕-菜粕 200 374 -18 盘面价差(主力) 02/18 03/19 04/18 05/18 06/17 11/20 01/19 12/20 07/17 08/16 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) 205. 00 足延 174 7.1372 8 大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 进口大豆盘面毛利(元/吨) ----- 巴西2月 ----- 巴西3月 ----- 巴西4月 ----- 巴西7月 - ----- 巴西2月 ----- 巴西3月 ----- 巴西4月 ----- 巴西7月 --- 一巴西8月 巴 约9月 300 600 250 国际数据 400 200 200 -200 or and of a both of a be a be a ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyolefin industry, oil price surges suppress the cost - end, profits are compressed to the lowest level of the year, and inventories are differentiated. PE is recommended for positive spreads, while PP is recommended for short - positions in the medium - term [21]. - In the methanol industry, due to geopolitical conflicts, the market has a strong long - position sentiment. Short - term strategies are recommended for positive spreads, and it is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics [30]. - In the PVC and caustic soda industry, caustic soda supply still exerts pressure, demand is weak, and there are inventory risks. PVC has short - term price increases but long - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take short - positions in the medium - term [32][35]. - In the urea industry, the short - term futures market is affected by rising Middle - East FOB prices and domestic factory export orders. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with a bullish bias [38]. - In the styrene industry, short - term geopolitical factors drive prices up, but there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - position opportunities in the medium - term [43]. - In the polyester industry, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have different supply - demand situations. Strategies vary from short - term strength to long - term supply - demand balance adjustments [47]. - In the crude oil industry, geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is likely to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on the spot side and capture volatility - narrowing opportunities on the options side [52]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices all increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.38% [21]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83%, and social inventory decreased by 4.56%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 4.52%, and trader inventory increased by 5.31% [21]. - **Operation Rate**: PE device operation rate increased by 2.27%, and downstream weighted operation rate decreased by 1.00%. PP device operation rate increased by 2.1%, and powder operation rate decreased by 1.3% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases of 1.83% and 2.53% respectively. Port prices increased significantly [30]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10%, port inventory decreased by 10.09%, and social inventory decreased by 7.52% [30]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic enterprise operation rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream external - procurement MTO device operation rate increased by 0.85% [30]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Caustic soda export profit increased significantly, while PVC export profit decreased [32]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operation rate decreased by 2.6%, and PVC total operation rate data was unavailable. PVC external - procurement calcium carbide method profit increased by 5.5% [33]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operation rate increased by 2.0%, and PVC downstream product operation rates generally decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda had inventory differentiation, with East China de - stocking and Shandong stocking. PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4%, and total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [35]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Urea futures prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Spot prices in different regions also had slight fluctuations [38]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.00%, and production factory operation rate increased by 1.00% [38]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49%, and port inventory remained unchanged [38]. Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene all increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [40]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene East China spot price and futures prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [41]. - **Operation Rate and Inventory**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operation rate increased by 2.9%, styrene operation rate increased by 2.1%. Port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips increased on June 18 compared to June 17. PX, PTA, and MEG prices also had different changes [47]. - **Operation Rate**: Asian and Chinese PX operation rates, PTA operation rate, and MEG comprehensive operation rate had different changes [47]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased, and PTA and MEG inventories had different trends [47]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different changes on June 19 compared to June 18. Product oil prices and cracking spreads also had fluctuations [52]. - **Inventory**: EIA data showed that last week's US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, far exceeding market expectations [52]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term [52].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 19 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 2025年06月09日 星期一 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 上周五现货黄金跌超 1%。白银延续涨势，现货银涨超 1.4%后小幅回落 | | 属 | 【消息面】 | | | 国务院副总理何立峰将于 6 月 8 日至 13 日访问英国，将与美方举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。；中国央行 | | | 连续第 7 个月增持黄金，环比增加 6 万盎司，增持速度继续放缓；日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤 | | | 泽亮正前往美国参加第五轮日美关税谈判。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 美国 5 月非农新增 13.9 万，创 2 月以来新低，虽然高于市场预期，但前两个月数据合计大幅下修 9.5 万；失 | | | 业率 4.2%。工资意外增长，但劳动力总量却在萎缩；美国 4 月消费信贷增长翻倍至 179 亿美元，其中学生贷 | | | 款飙升至 1.8 万亿美元历史新高；2025 年 1-3 月全球整体房地产投资额同比增长 34%，对日本的房地产投资 | | | 额超过 2 万亿日元，创出季度历史新高，与上年同 ...

【油价走势受多因素影响，面临回落压力】地缘溢价支撑，但潜在供应增量压制油价，地缘政治溢价发 挥有限。成品油旺季需求预期存在，然而贸易摩擦带来长期需求抑制。欧佩克+的第三次加速增产可能 影响市场。美国方面，产量 1339.2 万桶/日，环比变动 0.04%，同比变动 2.23%；美原油净进口量 258.2 万桶/日，环比变动 4.45%，同比变动 33.57%。美国炼厂加工量为 1649 万桶/日，环比变动 0.54%，同 比变动 0.05%；炼厂开工率为 90.7%，环比变动 0.5pts，同比变动-1.0pts。中国主营炼厂开工率为 73.26%，环比变动 0.8pts，同比变动-3.0pts；山东地炼开工率为 46.09%，环比变动-1.2pts，同比变 动-9.0pts。美国库存方面，除 SPR 外石油总库存 12.23 亿桶，上周同期为 12.18 亿桶，同比变 动-2.19%；本周原油商业库存为 4.43 亿桶，上周同期为 4.42 亿桶，同比变动-3.42%；汽油库存为 2.26 亿桶，上周同期为 2.25 亿桶，同比变动-0.57%；馏分油库存为 1.04 亿桶，上周同期为 1.04 亿桶，同比 ...

相关链接 库存数据矛盾重重，欧佩克+的"健康市场"说辞站得住脚吗？欧佩克+通过增加产量到底想实现什么 呢？ 期货热点追踪 ...