Group 1: Report Core View - As of January 10, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 0.6%. The dry weather in the next two weeks is conducive to the harvest, and the expected shipment volume in January is higher than last year [8]. - As of January 14, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 93.9%, slightly behind last year. The proportion of good - rated soybean crops was 60%. The dry weather since January has led to a decline in the excellent - good rate, and the dry weather will continue in the next two weeks [8]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate before the Spring Festival. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has increased slightly, and the far - month trading volume of soybean meal has increased recently. The提货 performance is normal. Due to the price drop of rapeseed meal caused by the easing of China - Canada relations, the feeding cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased [8]. - Overall, as Brazil's harvest progresses, the Brazilian QR premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of soybean production. Pay attention to the subsequent weather in Argentina. The NO5 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Group 2: Market Data Spot Basis - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract): In Dalian, it was 493; in Tianjin, 433; in Zhangjiagang, 373; in Dongguan, 373; in Zhanjiang, 423; in Fangcheng, 433. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 193, with a change of 36 [4]. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 600, and the spread of the main contract was 506 [10]. Inventory and Supply - related Data - The inventory data includes China's port soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory [5][6][9][10]. - The开机 and压榨 situation includes national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume, national major oil mills' startup rate, and downstream提货 volume [7]. International Data - The 2025 soybean CNF premium chart for continuous months and the 2025 imported soybean's gross profit per ton are presented, with details of premiums and exchange rates [10].

Group 1 - On January 12, a significant transaction of 1.1613 million tons of soybean meal occurred in China, with 1.077 million tons attributed to forward basis contracts, indicating strong demand from various regions including Northeast, North China, Central China, and the two Guang regions [1] - The forward market profitability provided oil mills with opportunities for hedging and pre-sales, particularly in South China where basis trading was prevalent, with prices for May-July contracts at a discount of 30 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The USDA report released on January 13 indicated an increase in both the beginning stocks and production of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season, raising total supply by 17 million bushels, with planted area adjusted to 81.2 million acres and harvested area at 80.4 million acres [2] - U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected to rise to 35 million bushels, reflecting a supply increase and demand decrease, leading to a reduction in the average price to $10.20 per bushel [2] Group 3 - Brazil's soybean production forecast was raised by 3 million tons to 178 million tons due to improved rainfall in the southern regions, with domestic crushing and consumption also slightly increasing [2] - The increase in Brazilian soybean production is expected to exert long-term pressure on global soybean prices and lower import costs [3] Group 4 - The National Grain Trade Center conducted several auctions for imported soybeans, with the auction on January 13 achieving a 100% transaction rate for 1.1396 million tons at an average price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton [4][5] - The successful auction results signal a "short-term supply abundance" and indicate a favorable environment for downstream enterprises, despite potential delays in imports due to customs policies [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The estimated ending stocks of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season remain at 290 million bushels, and the US soybean stock-to-use ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report on US soybean yield and exports [7]. - There is no obvious weather-driven impact on South American crops in the short term. Brazil has started harvesting. Given the prediction of a bumper Brazilian soybean crop, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest pressure on Brazilian CNF premiums [8]. - The restart of imported soybean auctions in China brings an expectation of improved supply in the first quarter. Attention should be paid to the transaction situation. Recently, the soybean meal futures market is expected to be mainly volatile, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the adjustments in the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China-Canada trade policies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data on Spot Basis - On January 9th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 454, down 4; in Tianjin it was 414, down 4; in Rizhao it was 374; in Zhangjiagang it was 364, down 4; in Dongguan it was 354, down 4; in Zhanjiang it was 394, down 4; in Fangcheng it was 404, down 14. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 85, up 12 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 450 in 20/21, 218 in 21/22. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 657, up 9. The futures spread (main contract) of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 448, up 24 [10]. 3.3 Premium and Profit Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 111.00 cents per bushel, up 3. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9513. The import soybean futures gross profit in Brazil showed different trends in different months [10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The report shows the inventory trends of national major oil mills' soybeans, Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises from 2018 to 2025 [10][11]. 3.5开机和压榨情况 - The report presents the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of national major oil mills in 2025 [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, which provides some support for the downside expectation of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report to the US soybean yield and exports. There is no obvious speculative driver for the South American weather in the short term. Currently, Brazil has started harvesting. With the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest selling pressure on the Brazilian CNF premium. [8][9] - The de-stocking expectation of domestic soybeans at the end of January has accelerated. At the same time, due to concerns about the shortage of soybeans in the first quarter and the extended customs inspection, the downstream pre-holiday stocking expectation is relatively positive, which is conducive to supporting the domestic spot price trend before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter brings a structural problem of domestic supply, which supports M03. The M03-M05 spread is still biased towards positive arbitrage in the short term, with the risk lying in policy changes. It is difficult to predict the specific volume, price, and shipping rhythm of the imported soybean auction or directional sales. Investors are recommended to operate with caution. [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis Data - Dalian's 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) was 389 on January 7, down 15; Tianjin's was 359, down 15; Rizhao's was 329, up 5; Zhangjiagang's was 309, down 15; Dongguan's was 329, up 5; Zhanjiang's was 369, up 5; and Fangcheng's was 369, up 5. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 19 on January 7, down 24. [6] Spread Data - The M1-5 spread was 360 on January 7, down 14; the RM1-5 spread was 258, up 11; the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 656, up 36; and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 392, up 6. [6][7] International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9594, and the spot premium for 2025 continuous-month soybeans was 157.00 cents per bushel. The on - disk crushing profit was 158 yuan per ton. [7] Inventory Data - The report shows inventory trends of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal, as well as the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises from 2020 - 2025. [7] 开机 and压榨情况 - The report presents the soybean crushing volume and operating rate of national major oil mills from 2020 - 2025. [7]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 2026/1/7 | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | 涨跌 | 1月6日 | 指标 | == | ====== 16/17 | == | == | ===== 20/21 | == | == | == | 24/25 | 25/26 | 大连 | 2500 | 404 | -2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2000 | 天津 | 374 | -12 | 1.500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1000 | 日照 | 324 | -2 | 500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 324 | 张家港 | -22 | -500 | (对主力合约) | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of US soybean oil drives the rebound of US soybeans, but the performance of US soybeans is still expected to be under pressure. With favorable weather in South America and the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans, there will be selling pressure later. Recently, the futures market fluctuates following reserve - related rumors, and the 005 contract is expected to remain relatively weak in the later period. Attention should be paid to domestic customs policies and reserve auctions [7]. - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On December 23, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 395, down 4; in Rizhao it was 335, down 4; in Tianjin it was 355, down 4. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 355, down 4 [4]. - The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 124, down 10; the M1 - 5 was 302, down 9 [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 396, down 8; the price difference between the main contracts was 533 [5]. Supply Situation - According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season will reach 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 90.3%. As of December 3, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 44.7%. Short - term weather is favorable. There are concerns about the supply of soybeans and soybean meal in the first quarter of next year in China due to rumored customs delays. Domestic imported soybeans have started to be auctioned with high premium [6]. Demand Situation - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short - term, supporting feed demand. However, breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal, and the提货 performance is good [6][7]. Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and the inventory of soybean meal is being depleted slowly. The pressure of spot supply is still large. It is expected that the inventory will be depleted more quickly from December to January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support US soybean prices. Without obvious weather issues, the market is expected to shift to trading the supply pressure of South American new crops from December to January. The new - crop discount trend may drag down the soybean meal futures pricing. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - CONB predicts that Brazil's new - crop soybean output in the 25/26 season will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0% (compared to 58.4% last week, 73.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 67.2%). As of November 13, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 15% (7% last week and 25% last year). There is a risk of relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next few weeks, and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern should be monitored. Domestic soybean meal is expected to see inventory reduction from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The purchasing progress for December - January shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and recent downstream long - term contracts for soybean meal have seen high trading volumes with good提货 performance [7]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [7]. Price and Spread - On November 24, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 79. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng was 49, - 11, - 11, - 21, - 21, - 31 respectively. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 10, with a change of 6. The M1 - M5 spread was 196, down 13. The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, down 3. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 531, down 20 and 16 respectively [4][5]. Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1056, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 145 cents per bushel, with no change. The domestic port and major oil - mill soybean inventories, major oil - mill soybean meal inventories, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, major oil - mill operating rates, and major oil - mill soybean crushing volumes are presented in the form of historical data trends [5].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a data daily from ITG Guomao Futures, focusing on the agricultural products, especially soybeans and soybean meal [2][3] - The report is dated November 21, 2025, and the analyst is Huang Xianglan [3] Group 2: Market Data Basis and Spread - On November 20, the basis of soybean meal's main contract in Zhangjiagang decreased by 45, while in Dongguan it increased by 5. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong decreased by 4 [4] - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread on the main contract was 451, with a change of 14 [5] Exchange Rate and Crushing Margin - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0769, and the crushing margin for Brazilian soybeans was -52 yuan/ton, with no change [5] Inventory - The inventory data shows the trends of soybean inventory in Chinese ports, major oil mills, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 to 2025 [5] Operation and Crushing - The data also presents the operation rate and soybean crushing volume of major oil mills from 2020 to 2023 [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - USDA's November supply - demand report for 2025/26 reduced the US soybean yield per acre, exports, and carry - over, with less - than - expected positive impact [6] - CONB predicts Brazil's new crop output in 25/26 to reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 8, the sowing rate was 58.4% [6] - In China, soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still relatively loose. The purchase of 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies may affect long - term supply [6] - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, with recent downstream transactions being stable and good提货 performance [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - If there are no obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January, which may drag down the soybean meal pricing [6] - It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the domestic soybean meal market is expected to be oscillatingly stronger, but the rebound height of the futures price is limited by the current loose supply of nearby soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the policy changes between China and the US, adjustments in the US Department of Agriculture reports, and changes in South American weather [9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract), on November 3rd, the basis in Dalian was 74 with a rise of 15; in Tianjin, it was 54 with a rise of 25; in other regions like Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc., specific basis and changes are also provided. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 67 with a decline of 11. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 483 with a rise of 13, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 535 with a decline of 98 [6][7]. b. Supply Situation - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be lowered, while the export forecast has room for an upward adjustment, and the supply - demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight. As of October 25th, according to CONAB data, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5%. The far - month soybean purchase and shipping progress is slow [7][8]. c. Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, and the reduction in production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current farming profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [9]. d. Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs for the same period, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The outcome of the China-US meeting today was below expectations, and the price of US soybeans declined. The profit margin of domestic soybean purchases has improved but remains poor. The domestic futures price is relatively low, and the futures market is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current abundant supply of near - term soybean meal in the spot market and the expected abundant global soybean supply in the long - term limit the upside potential of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy changes between China and the US and the impact of South American weather on the market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread and Price Difference Data - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On October 30th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was - 24, down 25; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin was 26, down 25; in Rizhao it was 6, down 25; in Dongguan it was - 44, down 25; in Zhanjiang it was - 4, down 15. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 73, up 13 [6]. - **Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 593, down 3; the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 448, down 16 [7]. - **Spread**: The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, up 23; the M1 - M5 spread data was presented in the table; the M1 - RM1 spread was 900, and other spread data was also provided [6][7]. 3.2 Supply - related Information - **USDA Forecast**: The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 300 million bushels, and the expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be revised downward. Exports depend on China - US policies [7]. - **Brazilian Soybean Sowing**: As of October 25th, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5% [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - related Information - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports current demand. However, the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply [8]. - **Soybean Meal Sales**: The downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. 3.4 Inventory - related Information - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels compared to the same period. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have decreased to a low level [8]. 3.5 Other Information - **Exchange Rate and Profit**: The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and the import soybean crushing profit data were presented in the report [7]. - **Domestic Oil Mill Data**: The opening rate and soybean crushing volume of domestic major oil mills, as well as the inventory data of domestic major oil mills' soybean meal and soybean, were provided [7].