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蛋白数据日报-20260331
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 07:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - South American selling pressure continues to be released, and there is still downward pressure on soybean meal in the short term. The valuation of the soybean meal futures is relatively low. It is recommended to wait for the correction to layout long positions for far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should focus on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet. In April, domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory, and the 165 - 119 spread may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Basis - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian is 383, in Tianjin is 323, in Zhangjiagang is 303, in Dongguan is 323 (down 20), in Zhanjiang is 263 (down 50), and in Fangcheng is 303. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 5 (up 24). The M5 - 9 spread is - 66 (up 20), and the RM5 - 9 spread is - 59 (up 29) [4] Spread and Other Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 617, and the spread of the main contract is - 20. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 274.00, with a change of - 4 [5] Inventory Data - Inventory data includes China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, showing data changes from 2020 - 2026 [6] 开机 and压榨情况 - The开机 rate and soybean压榨量 of national major oil mills are presented, showing data changes from 2020 - 2026 [6] Downstream Data - Downstream data shows the situation from 2019 - 2026 [6] International Situation - As of March 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 67.7%, compared with 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian production areas continues to be released, and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans has decreased recently. For US soybeans, pay attention to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of March. Brazilian shipping has resumed, concerns about delayed domestic arrivals have been alleviated, the supply of oil mills has recovered, and domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory in April [6]
蛋白数据日报-20260330
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 06:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 21, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 67.7%, compared to 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian soybean production areas is continuously being released, and the freight rates have declined with the decline in crude oil, leading to a recent drop in the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans. Trump's claim of a visit to China in mid - August has boosted the appearance of US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of September [13]. - The shipping in Brazil has resumed, alleviating concerns about delayed domestic arrivals, and the supply of oil mills has recovered. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in April. After the previous restocking, the downstream buying interest is currently weak, and the basis has weakened slightly [13]. - In the later stage, the arrival of soybeans in May is sufficient. The futures market reflects the delivery pressure, and the selling pressure in South America still needs further release. The valuation of the soybean meal futures is low. It is recommended to wait for a callback to arrange long positions in the far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should focus on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustments to the balance sheet of new US soybeans. In April, the domestic soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and the spread between M5 - RM5 may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - The basis of the main soybean meal contract in different regions on March 27: Dalian was 383 (down 5), Tianjin was 323 (down 5), Rizhao was 263 (down 65), Zhangjiagang was 303 (down 25), Dongguan was 343 (down 5), Zhanjiang was 313 (up 15), and Fangcheng was 303 (down 5). The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 19 (down 153) [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 896, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 622. The USD - CNY exchange rate was 6.8698, and the crushing profit on the futures market was 142 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Inventory Data - The inventory data of national major oil mills' soybeans, Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises are presented in the form of line charts, but specific numerical data is not clearly given [6][7][9]. 3.3 Startup and Pressing Situation - The startup rate and soybean pressing volume of national major oil mills are presented in the form of line charts, but specific numerical data is not clearly given [10][11][12].
蛋白数据日报-20260327
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 08:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - As of March 21, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 67.7%, compared to 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian production areas continues to be released, freight rates have declined with crude oil, and the ONF premium of Brazilian soybeans has recently decreased. Trump's claim of a visit to China in mid - August boosted the performance of US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of August and the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) expected to be released by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The shipping in Brazil has resumed, alleviating concerns about delayed domestic arrivals. The supply of oil mills has recovered, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in April. After the previous stocking, the downstream buying interest is currently weak, and the basis has weakened slightly. Looking ahead, the arrival of soybeans in May is sufficient, the delivery pressure is reflected in the futures market, and the selling pressure in South America still needs to be further released. The valuation of soybean meal futures is low. It is recommended to wait for a callback to arrange long positions in the far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should be focused on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustments to the balance sheet of new US soybeans. In April, the domestic soybean meal inventory will be reduced, and the M5 - M9 spread may change with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - **43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: In Dalian, it was 388; in Tianjin, it was 328 with a decrease of 20; in Rizhao, it was 328 with a decrease of 20; in Zhangjiagang, it was 328 with a decrease of 20; in Dongguan, it was 348 with a decrease of 20; in Zhanjiang, it was 298 with a decrease of 20; in Fangcheng, it was 308 with a decrease of 20 [4] - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: In Guangdong, it was 60 with a decrease of 5. The N5 - 9 was - 78 with a decrease of 3, and the RM5 - 9 was - 78 with a decrease of 10 [4] 3.2 Spread Data - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread in Guangdong was 818 with a decrease of 10, and the futures spread of the main contract was 608 [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - **National Major Oil Mills' Soybean Inventory**: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2018 - 2026 [6][7] - **China's Port Soybean Inventory**: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2018 - 2026 [6][7] - **National Major Oil Mills' Soybean Meal Inventory**: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2020 - 2026 [8] - **Feed Enterprises' Soybean Meal Inventory Days**: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2020 - 2026 [8] 3.4开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - **National Major Oil Mills' Soybean Pressing Volume**: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2020 - 2026 [10][12] - **National Major Oil Mills' Operating Rate**: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2020 - 2026 [11][12] - **Downstream Goods Receipt Volume**: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2019 - 2026 [12]
蛋白数据日报-20260326
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 03:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 21, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 67.7%, lower than last week's 69.2% and last year's 76.4%, but higher than the five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian production areas continues to be released, freight rates have declined with crude oil, and the CXF premium of Brazilian soybeans has recently decreased [9]. - Brazilian shipments have resumed, alleviating concerns about delayed arrivals in China. Oil mill supply has recovered, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in April. After pre - stocking, downstream buying interest is weak, and the basis has weakened slightly [9]. - In the later period, soybean arrivals in May are sufficient, and the futures market reflects delivery pressure. South American selling pressure still needs further release, and the soybean meal futures valuation is low. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to layout long positions in distant contracts. The driving factors for later price increases include cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet [9]. - In April, domestic soybean meal inventory will be reduced. The spread between M05 and M09 may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - The basis of the main soybean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on March 25 was 348, with a change of 9. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng also had different values and changes. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 65, with a change of 50 [4]. 3.2 Inventory Data - Information about inventory data includes the inventory of national major oil mills' soybeans, Chinese port soybeans, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, but specific numerical data is presented in a graphical form in the report [11][12]. 3.3开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - Information about the operation rate of national major oil mills and the soybean pressing volume is presented in a graphical form in the report, showing data from 2020 - 2026 [7][8]. 3.4 Downstream Transaction Volume - Information about the downstream transaction volume and the downstream提货量 (delivery volume) of national major oil mills is presented in a graphical form in the report, covering data from 2019 - 2026 [8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 593, with a change of - 3. The futures spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is also presented in the report, along with the premium - continuous month situation and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the futures crushing profit [11].
蛋白数据日报-20260325
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 05:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As of March 21st, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 67.7%, compared to 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. Due to rising freight costs, the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans has been relatively firm recently. Attention should be paid to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of August and the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2026 expected to be released by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) [11]. - The shipping from Brazil has resumed, alleviating concerns about delayed arrivals in China. Some oil mills will shut down at the end of March and early April. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybeans in April. Traders continued to hold firm on prices today, but downstream buying interest was weak, and the basis weakened slightly [11]. - In the later stage, the arrival of soybeans in May is sufficient, and the futures market reflects the delivery pressure. The selling pressure in South America still needs to be further released. The valuation of the soybean meal futures is low. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to arrange long positions in the far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should be focused on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustments to the balance sheet of new US soybeans. The inventory reduction of domestic soybeans in April may lead to a rebound in the basis, but the expected amplitude is limited. The spread between May and September contracts may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to remain in a reverse spread [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Basis Data - The spot basis of 43% soybean meal on March 24th: in Dalian it was 419 with a change of 26; in Tianjin it was 369 with a change of 36; in Rizhao it was 319 with a change of 26; in Zhangjiagang it was 339 with a change of 26; in Dongguan it was 389 with a change of 16; in Zhanjiang it was 339 with a change of 26; in Fangcheng it was 359 with a change of 26. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 15 with a change of - 26 [4]. - The M5 - 9 spread was - 61 with a change of - 18, and the RN5 - 9 spread was - 66 with a change of - 10 [4]. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 60 with a change of 904, and the futures spread of the main contracts was 596 with a change of - 12 [5]. Inventory and Other Data - Information on national major oil mills' soybean inventory, Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills'开机率 (start - up rate), downstream procurement volume, and national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume is presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical data is not clearly provided [6][7][9][10][12].
蛋白数据日报-20260312
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 05:04
Reporting Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The USDA March supply and demand report had no obvious highlights and its impact was neutral [4]. - Brazil's soybean harvest is currently more than half - completed, slower than the same period last year, with a sales progress of around 41.2%. Recently, the premium quotes are scarce due to large oil price changes and sellers' inability to determine freight [4]. - There is still a risk of rising shipping and fertilizer costs due to the short - term Middle East war. Brazilian beans may be delayed in arrival due to customs inspection and quarantine issues, which is beneficial for near - month and inter - month positive spreads. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the Middle East war and changes in domestic customs policies, while being aware of the risk of price drops [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) on March 11th: in Dalian it was 332 with a decline of 55; in Tianjin it was 252 with a decline of 35; in Rizhao it was 182 with a decline of 25; in Zhangjiagang it was 182 with a decline of 45; in Dongguan it was 252 with an increase of 25; in Zhanjiang it was 232 with an increase of 5; in Fangcheng it was 212 with an increase of 5 [3]. - For rapeseed meal spot basis on March 11th: in Guangdong it was 105 with an increase of 160; in NE - d it was 14 with an increase of 63; RM5 - 9 was 10 with an increase of 50 [3]. Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 745 with a decline of 68, and the main contract spread was 588 [4]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8321, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 187.00 cents per bushel with an increase of 115 [4]. Inventory Data - The content presents the historical data trends of China's port soybean inventory, major oil mills' soybean inventory, major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2018 - 2026 [4]. 开机 and Pressing Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of major oil mills' soybean pressing volume, major oil mills' startup rate, downstream cargo volume, and downstream trading volume from 2019 - 2026 [4].
蛋白数据日报-20260305
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 05:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Amidst the risk premium of commodities due to the Middle - East conflict and rising freight rates, the F08 price of soybeans is under pressure from the selling pressure of Brazil's bumper harvest. With the global large - scale supply suppressing, the upside of the soybean meal futures is limited in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the release of Brazil's selling pressure, Sino - US trade dynamics, and domestic reserve release. In China, with high inventories of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills and sufficient downstream stockpiling, the buying interest is weak, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to be under pressure [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on March 4th: in Dalian it was 331 with a decrease of 13; in Tianjin it was 271 with a decrease of 13; in Rizhao it was 231 with a decrease of 13; in Zhangjiagang it was 231 with a decrease of 13; in Dongguan it was 211 with a decrease of 13; in Zhanjiang it was 231 with a decrease of 13; in Fangcheng it was 251 with a decrease of 13. For rapeseed meal spot basis, in Guangdong it was 45 with an increase of 16, and NE - d was - 115 with an increase of 5, RM5 - 9 was - 53 with an increase of 6 [3] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 639 with a decrease of 23, and the futures spread of the main contract was 526 [4] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8741. The CNF premium of soybeans in 2025 and the import soybean futures gross profit are presented in the form of a chart, including data of different months in Brazil [4] 3.4 Inventory Data - The inventory data of soybeans in Chinese ports, soybeans in major domestic oil mills, soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises, and soybean meal inventory in major domestic oil mills are presented in the form of a chart from 2020 - 2026 [4][5] 3.5开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The operation rate and soybean pressing volume of major domestic oil mills from 2020 - 2026 are presented in the form of a chart, as well as the downstream purchase volume and trading volume from 2017 - 2026 [5]
蛋白数据日报-20260304
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 05:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The positive outlook for U.S. soybean exports and crushing is bullish for the U.S. soybean market. The delayed harvest of Brazilian soybeans has shifted the selling pressure later, and the Middle - East conflict has led to an increase in freight rates, causing the premium of Brazilian soybeans to rise. However, weak downstream buying interest is expected to limit the increase in premiums [6]. - The recent rebound in the soybean meal futures market is expected to be limited under the pressure of large global supply. Later, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums and Sino - U.S. trade dynamics, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [6]. - With high inventories of soybeans and soybean meal at domestic oil mills and sufficient downstream stockpiles and weak buying interest, the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to face pressure [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis Data - On March 3rd, the basis of soybean meal futures main contract in Dalian was 344, down 10; in Tianjin it was 284, down 10; in Rizhao it was 244, down 10. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot to the main contract in Zhangjiagang was 244, down 10; in Dongguan it was 224, down 10; in Zhanjiang it was 244, down 10; in Fangcheng it was 264, down 10. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 47, up 11 [4]. - The M5 - 9 spread was - 120, and the RM5 - 9 spread was - 59, up 6 [4]. 2. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 644, down 20; the futures spread of the main contract was 526, down 5 [5]. 3. Premium and Exchange Rate Data - The U.S. dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8855, and the futures crushing profit was 128 yuan/ton, up 8 [5]. 4. Inventory Data - The report presents the trends of China's port soybeans inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybeans inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory from 2020 - 2026 [5][6]. 5.开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The report shows the trends of major domestic oil mills' operation rate, soybean pressing volume, and lagging delivery from 2020 - 2026 [6].
蛋白数据日报-20260120
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-20 05:34
Group 1: Report Core View - As of January 10, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 0.6%. The dry weather in the next two weeks is conducive to the harvest, and the expected shipment volume in January is higher than last year [8]. - As of January 14, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 93.9%, slightly behind last year. The proportion of good - rated soybean crops was 60%. The dry weather since January has led to a decline in the excellent - good rate, and the dry weather will continue in the next two weeks [8]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate before the Spring Festival. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has increased slightly, and the far - month trading volume of soybean meal has increased recently. The提货 performance is normal. Due to the price drop of rapeseed meal caused by the easing of China - Canada relations, the feeding cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased [8]. - Overall, as Brazil's harvest progresses, the Brazilian QR premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of soybean production. Pay attention to the subsequent weather in Argentina. The NO5 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Group 2: Market Data Spot Basis - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract): In Dalian, it was 493; in Tianjin, 433; in Zhangjiagang, 373; in Dongguan, 373; in Zhanjiang, 423; in Fangcheng, 433. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 193, with a change of 36 [4]. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 600, and the spread of the main contract was 506 [10]. Inventory and Supply - related Data - The inventory data includes China's port soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory [5][6][9][10]. - The开机 and压榨 situation includes national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume, national major oil mills' startup rate, and downstream提货 volume [7]. International Data - The 2025 soybean CNF premium chart for continuous months and the 2025 imported soybean's gross profit per ton are presented, with details of premiums and exchange rates [10].
豆粕近期关注热点回顾
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-01-16 09:46
Group 1 - On January 12, a significant transaction of 1.1613 million tons of soybean meal occurred in China, with 1.077 million tons attributed to forward basis contracts, indicating strong demand from various regions including Northeast, North China, Central China, and the two Guang regions [1] - The forward market profitability provided oil mills with opportunities for hedging and pre-sales, particularly in South China where basis trading was prevalent, with prices for May-July contracts at a discount of 30 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The USDA report released on January 13 indicated an increase in both the beginning stocks and production of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season, raising total supply by 17 million bushels, with planted area adjusted to 81.2 million acres and harvested area at 80.4 million acres [2] - U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected to rise to 35 million bushels, reflecting a supply increase and demand decrease, leading to a reduction in the average price to $10.20 per bushel [2] Group 3 - Brazil's soybean production forecast was raised by 3 million tons to 178 million tons due to improved rainfall in the southern regions, with domestic crushing and consumption also slightly increasing [2] - The increase in Brazilian soybean production is expected to exert long-term pressure on global soybean prices and lower import costs [3] Group 4 - The National Grain Trade Center conducted several auctions for imported soybeans, with the auction on January 13 achieving a 100% transaction rate for 1.1396 million tons at an average price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton [4][5] - The successful auction results signal a "short-term supply abundance" and indicate a favorable environment for downstream enterprises, despite potential delays in imports due to customs policies [5]