1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market, and the market is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the US energy policy and further news about Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. The strategy is mainly to stay on the sidelines. For the far - month P05 contract, there may be an opportunity to go long as palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year. It is also advisable to be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils and the P1 - 5 reverse spread [2]. - The current core contradictions in the oil market include the digestion of palm oil inventory pressure in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the game between the weak domestic reality and international expectations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm oil**: In the October MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by over 11%, inventory by over 4%, and exports by over 18%. With the entry into the production - reduction season, the cost - performance of palm oil is expected to increase. The B50 plan in Indonesia has uncertainties, and there are also limitations on production due to the transfer of plantation ownership [1]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oils**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The resumption of US soybean purchases may increase domestic supply pressure. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be tight due to the less - optimistic China - Canada talks [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient in the short term, but there will be a slow destocking at the end of the year, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. The price ranges are P2601 [8400 - 9000], Y2601 [8000 - 8500], and OI [9300 - 10000]. Pay attention to the far - month rebound opportunity of palm oil [15]. - **Technical analysis**: Go long on the P05 contract on dips, and be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [15]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Consider a reverse spread for P1 - 5. Be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [16][17]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price range for soybean oil is 8000 - 8500, and for rapeseed oil is 9300 - 10300 [18]. - **Hedging strategies**: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills can short soybean oil futures to prevent losses from high - inventory imports [20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: In October, the US soybean crushing volume far exceeded market expectations, reaching a record high [24]. - **Negative information**: The November USDA report was slightly negative for the US soybean market. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed oil increased [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, and the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Domestic Market - **Unilateral trend**: The oil market was mainly in shock this week. Although the market sentiment is bearish, the downward space is limited due to uncertain factors such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season in producing areas [31]. - **Fund movement**: Positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. Palm oil had a slight increase in short positions from foreign investors and retail investors, and weak long - position confidence. Soybean oil's positions changed little, and foreign short - positions in rapeseed oil decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil's long - positions decreased due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [32]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The soybean and rapeseed oil markets showed a Back structure, which became shallower this week. The palm oil market had a complex structure, with 05 being the strongest and 09 relatively weak [33][36]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to be weak due to high domestic inventory and general downstream demand [33]. - **Spread structure**: The spreads between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils strengthened, and the rapeseed - soybean spread rebounded slightly. Rapeseed oil remained strong in the sector, while palm oil was the weakest [53]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was mainly in shock. The negative factors in palm - oil producing areas were temporarily exhausted. The US soybean market was affected by the slightly negative November USDA report. The cost of US soybeans supported the soybean oil market, and the supply gap of rapeseed oil made it stronger than palm oil [56]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads continued to decline. The price of palm oil in producing areas was weakly volatile, and the production cost of bio - fuel decreased slightly. The cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a multi - year low [64]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - As China is a net importer of palm oil, the import profit changed slightly with the low - level consolidation of the origin price, and there were few new purchases under the negative basis [67]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Deduction - **Palm oil**: With the negative basis, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure is not expected to increase, and the driving force from the producing areas may be reflected in the 05 contract [72]. - **Soybean oil**: The arrival of raw materials will decline in December, the crushing volume may decrease, and the supply pressure will gradually ease [72]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current domestic inventory is high, but it will gradually destock in the fourth quarter. If the China - Canada relationship does not ease, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [72]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Deduction - The inventory pressure of the three major oils is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. Although the fourth quarter is a traditional consumption peak season, the boost to the market after the festival stocking is limited, and the overall terminal demand is expected to remain weak [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of three major oils fluctuated yesterday, and the fundamentals of the oils maintained the existing pattern with slight differentiation among varieties. The palm oil production area remained highly productive, and the demand outlook weakened, exerting some pressure on prices [3] - The USDA may release a monthly supply and demand report next week, and there are some differences in the market. However, the South American production is still relatively optimistic. The recent China-US peace talks to reduce soybean tariffs have driven up CBOT soybeans, while the domestic market is basically stable. The rapeseed sector fluctuates greatly affected by China-Canada trade policies, and recent macro - policy changes need to be closely monitored [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8732.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +142 yuan and a range of +1.65%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8188.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +50.00 yuan and a range of +0.61%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9564.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +157.00 yuan and a range of +1.67% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8570.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +50.00 yuan and a range of +0.59%, and the spot basis was P01 - 162.00, with a change of -92.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8330.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +20.00 yuan/ton and a range of +0.24%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 142.00, with a change of -30.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9910.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +150.00 yuan and a range of +1.54%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 346.00, with a change of -7.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Aggregation - Imported soybeans: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 506 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (December shipment) was 506 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 500 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes were: 243 cents/bushel for the Gulf of Mexico (December shipment), unchanged from the previous trading day; 245 cents/bushel for the US West Coast (December shipment), down 3 cents/bushel; and 228 cents/bushel for Brazilian ports (December shipment), down 7 cents/bushel [2] - Imported oils: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1133 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1144 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton. The C&F quote for imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1100 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1080 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 521 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 529 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [2] - Palm oil production: According to the data of the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA), from November 1 - 5, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.32% month - on - month, and the production increased by 6.80% month - on - month [2] - Malaysian waste cooking oil export: The deputy minister of the Malaysian Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities (KPK) said that with the significant increase in the output of a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant in Johor, Malaysia's waste cooking oil exports will face "direct and moderate pressure" next year [2] - Brazilian agricultural product exports: According to the prediction of the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 3.77 million tons, higher than 2.34 million tons in the same period last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.23 million tons, higher than 1.73 million tons in the same period last year; corn exports are expected to be 5.57 million tons, higher than 4.92 million tons in the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of Sino-US talks, the US market rose strongly with high policy uncertainty. Domestic short - position funds reduced positions to avoid risks. The right to buy ships in China is still poor, and the domestic product valuation is low. With the expectation of crush margin repair, the short - term futures market is expected to continue the rebound trend. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policies and South American weather changes [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season to be 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may have room for downward adjustment. Exports depend on Sino - US policies. According to CONAB data, as of October 25, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week and 37.7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 42.5%. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have dropped to a low level [8]. Price and Spread - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On October 29, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 81, down 34; in Rizhao it was 31, down 34; in Tianjin it was 51; in Dongguan it was - 19; in Zhanjiang it increased by 6; in Fangcheng it increased by 6. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 60, up 16. The MJ - 5 was 166, down 14, and the RM1 - 5 was - 15 [6]. - **Price Spread**: The spot price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the futures price spread (Wangli) was 596, up 17. The price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 900, and the current value was 464, down 9 [7]. Other Data - **Exchange Rate and Crush Margin**: The US dollar - RMB exchange rate and the futures crush margin were - 240.00 yuan/ton, down 5 [7]. - **Inventory and Processing**: Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mill soybean inventory, national major oil mill soybean meal inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mill soybean crushing volume, and national major oil mill operating rate are presented in the form of historical data comparison charts [7].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - The supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is expected to be tight, which supports the CBOT US soybean futures. With the support of import costs, the downside space below the 01 contract is limited. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Related Content 1. Spot and Spread Data - **Spot Basis**: The 43% soybean meal spot basis varies by location. For example, in Dalian it's 96, in Tianjin it's 46 - 4, and in different regions it shows different values and changes. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 34 with a change of 25 [6]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 386 with a change of 5, and the futures price spread of the main contract is 541 with a change of - 1. The RM1 - 5 spread is 107, and the M1 - 5 spread is 240 [6][7]. - **Other Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal price spread and relevant data are also presented, along with the soybean CNF premium - continuous month data and the relationship between the US dollar - RMB exchange rate and relevant profits [7]. 2. Supply Situation - **US Soybeans**: The ISDA August report raised the US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre, but lowered the planting area in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is reduced to 290 million bushels. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans this week reached 69%, but due to less rainfall and low temperature in the producing areas, the good - excellent rate may decline slightly [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: The expected arrival of soybeans in China in September is over 10 million tons, and the inventory is in the accumulation cycle. In October, the inventory is expected to start decreasing, and the supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [7][8]. 3. Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The short - term high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the feed demand. However, policy guidance aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which will affect the long - term supply of pigs. Some regions use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the提货 volume is at a high level. The downstream transactions of soybean meal this week are cautious [8]. 4. Inventory Situation - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level and is in the accumulation cycle [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal inventory is increasing, lower than the same period last year, and is expected to continue accumulating. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil retail prices have experienced their third freeze of the year as of July 29, 2023, due to minimal fluctuations in international oil prices and the current domestic pricing mechanism [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - In 2023, domestic refined oil retail prices have undergone 15 adjustment cycles, including 6 increases, 3 freezes, and 6 decreases [2]. - The average price of refined oil for the first ten working days prior to July 29 was less than 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous ten working days before July 15, leading to no price adjustments [1]. Market Analysis - The international crude oil market has shown a narrow range of fluctuations, with the domestic refined oil wholesale market also reflecting a similar trend, where gasoline prices are performing slightly better than diesel [3]. - Analysts predict that the domestic gasoline and diesel market will continue to exhibit weak consolidation trends in the near future [3]. - OPEC+ is expected to hold a meeting in early August to set production policies for September, which may influence market sentiment and pricing [3]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ is anticipated to maintain a significant increase in production, potentially completing its original plan of increasing by 2.2 million barrels per day ahead of schedule in September [3]. - On the demand side, the ongoing summer travel peak in the U.S. is expected to sustain fuel demand, although concerns regarding U.S. tariffs and global economic outlook may keep the market cautious [3]. Short-term Market Sentiment - The market is currently focused on U.S.-China negotiations, with positive expectations potentially boosting oil prices in the short term [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic market is in a stockpiling cycle, and the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to continue to face pressure [7][8] - The expectation of Sino - US talks boosts the CBOT July US soybean futures, while the decline of Brazilian premium is relatively limited. If the talks fail, the Brazilian premium is expected to be strong, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [8] - With the expectation of rising import costs, the M01 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [8] 3. Summary by Related Information 3.1 Basis Data - As of July 21, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was - 49, - 89 in Tianjin (down 13), - 169 in Rizhao; the spot basis of 43% soybean meal (against the main contract) was - 169 in Zhangjiagang (down 3), - 209 in Dongguan (down 3), - 159 in Zhanjiang (down 13), - 169 in Fangcheng (down 3); the spot basis of rapeseed meal in the east was - 147 (up 5) [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report, such as the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong being 342, and the futures spread of the main contract being 280 [7] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1768, the soybean CNF premium is shown in the chart, and the import soybean futures gross profit was 258 yuan/ton, down 2 [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have increased [7][8] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%. In the next two weeks, parts of Kansas and Nebraska will face high - temperature and drought weather, which may be unfavorable to soybean growth, but the overall weather in other areas is normal, which is conducive to soybean growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal stockpiling is expected to continue until September [7] - **Demand**: In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry breeding is expected to be maintained, which supports the feed demand. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, the proportion of addition in feed has increased, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal at low prices has been good [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the price of protein meal will continue to be constrained by the absolute supply of raw materials, showing a weak range - bound volatile trend. With the smooth planting of new US soybean crops, there is limited upward driving force for the domestic soybean meal futures market. However, the near - term soybean meal futures price has basically squeezed out the trade - war premium and is gradually pricing in the Q3 supply pressure. There is still a gap in Q4 soybean purchases. After trading the arrival volume and inventory pressure in Q3, there may be an inflection point in the year. The low physical inventory of feed mills on the demand side also implies potential bullish factors. In terms of valuation, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums, the far - month futures price is expected to have marginal upward driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1852 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.385 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in purchasing costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Q3 protein meal prices are constrained by raw material supply, showing a weak range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal futures market has limited upward momentum. The near - term price has squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in Q3 supply pressure. There may be an inflection point after Q3, and the low inventory of feed mills is a potential bullish factor. The far - month price may have upward driving force due to limited downside of US soybeans and resilient Brazilian premiums [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - After China - US talks, there is strong cost - valuation support for the far - month contracts from the external market [5]. - Bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts is strong during the weather - related speculation period [5]. - Brazilian export premiums support the far - month contract prices from the cost end [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures, leading to weak performance of the 09 contract. Soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are rising, and some areas are urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 11.5 million tons in July and 11 million tons in August. Supply in Q3 is still abundant, and the Q4 gap depends on China - US relations [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and adding rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness for downstream users. The market's reaction to the WTO's investigation of China - Canada tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market is expected to follow the soybean meal market and be weak [6]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices - Closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates are provided for various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB [9]. 3.7 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Spreads, prices, and daily changes are provided for different combinations of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as spot prices and basis for soybean meal and rapeseed meal [10]. 3.8 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - Import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits are provided for US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil production is expected to increase month - on - month, with seasonal production growth approaching, increasing supply expectations. Although domestic port inventories are currently low, as origin quotes weaken, future purchases are emerging. With the current inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and inventory is expected to grow, requiring a further narrowing of the spread to stimulate consumption [3]. - For soybean oil, as purchased ships arrive at ports, supply pressure is increasing, and oil mill压榨 is expected to rise. With no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, inventory is expected to enter a build - up cycle. Given the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may repair in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the expected improvement in China - Canada relations has reduced the premium in the market's policy - related trading. The current supply is at a peak, but new supply will be limited, and the marginal inventory reduction is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. High inventory is suppressing prices, but policy uncertainty provides support for far - month prices [3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened with the international market. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is abundant, and the fourth - quarter supply depends on China - US negotiations [15]. - In the domestic soybean meal market, prices have strengthened with the international market due to China - US negotiation expectations. However, the concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will put pressure on prices. Downstream demand is weak, and the basis remains weak [15]. - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is below expectations. The inventory reduction is difficult. The far - month supply has some gaps, but demand is limited. The market is weak, and future trends depend on China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price Spreads - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 4 yuan/ton; P 5 - 9 is - 152 yuan/ton with a daily change of 16 yuan/ton; P 9 - 1 is 30 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 12 yuan/ton [4]. - Soybean - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 432 yuan/ton with a daily change of 30 yuan/ton; Y - P 05 is - 650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 20 yuan/ton; Y - P 09 is - 386 yuan/ton with a daily change of 48 yuan/ton [4]. - Other spreads: Y/M and OI/RM also have corresponding price and change data [4]. 3.2. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm oil futures prices: Palm oil 01 is 8504 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 05 is 8382 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 09 is 8536 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.02% [6]. - Spot and related prices: BMD palm oil主力 is 4143 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.95%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8730 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton; the basis is 222 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean oil futures prices: Soybean oil 01 is 8082 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.23%; Soybean oil 05 is 7736 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.04%; Soybean oil 09 is 8156 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.32% [12]. - Spot and related prices: CBOT soybean oil主力 is 54.62 cents/pound with a decline of 0.13%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8300 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the basis is 98 yuan/ton with a decline of 18 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4. Oilseed Futures Prices - Soybean meal futures prices: Soybean meal 01 is 3097 with a decline of 7 and a decline rate of 0.23%; Soybean meal 05 is 2768 with a decline of 1 and a decline rate of 0.04%; Soybean meal 09 is 3067 with a decline of 10 and a decline rate of 0.32% [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures prices: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2395 with a decline of 33 and a decline rate of 1.36%; Rapeseed meal 05 is 2389 with a decline of 21 and a decline rate of 0.87%; Rapeseed meal 09 is 2679 with a decline of 15 and a decline rate of 0.56% [18].

Report Overview - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Report Date: June 18, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Production in the producing regions is expected to increase month - on - month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently low, as the origin's offer weakens, subsequent purchases are emerging. Due to the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase. It is necessary to further shrink the soybean - palm oil price spread to find consumption [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: With the arrival of purchased ships, the supply pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing volume will rise. However, due to the lack of incremental consumption, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. With the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The recent expected improvement in China - Canada relations has hit the premium of the policy - expected trading on the market. The current supply is at a phased peak, and the marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. Consumption is limited to the rigid - demand level due to the policy premium and the unfavorable rapeseed - soybean oil price spread. There is high - inventory pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Oilseeds - **Imported Soybeans**: Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened following the international market. The far - month crushing margin has weakened slightly, and the far - month Brazilian premium is high. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, and the situation of China - US negotiations in the fourth quarter should be monitored [15]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: Driven by the expectation of China - US talks, domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the international market. The soybean raw material inventory of oil mills is rising, and the soybean meal inventory is also being repaired. The concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will suppress soybean meal prices. Downstream demand is mainly focused on fulfilling previous contracts, and the basis remains weak [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: There is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is lower than expected. Inventory depletion is difficult. Although there are some supply gaps in the far - month, demand is limited. Due to the continuous meetings between China and Canada, the market is weak, and subsequent attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils Fats and Oils Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - **Palm Oil**: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan; P 5 - 9 is - 162 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 16 yuan; P 9 - 1 is 40 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 24 yuan [4]. - **Soybean Oil - Palm Oil Spread**: Y - P 01 is - 492 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 14 yuan; Y - P 05 is - 670 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 12 yuan; Y - P 09 is - 474 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2 yuan [4]. - **Soybean Oil - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Y/M 01 is 2.5546 with a daily decrease of 0.55%; Y/M 05 is 2.7607 with a daily decrease of 0.26%; Y/M 09 is 2.5934 with a daily decrease of 0.79% [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: OI/RM 01 is 3.9544 with a daily increase of 0.15%; OI/RM 05 is 3.8555 with a daily decrease of 0.04%; OI/RM 09 is 3.5731 with a daily increase of 0.41% [4]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm oil 01 is 8476 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.83%; palm oil 05 is 8350 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.8%; palm oil 09 is 8518 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.85% [6]. - BMD palm oil main contract is 4066 ringgit/ton with a daily decrease of 0.68% [6]. - Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8770 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the basis is 284 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 20 yuan [6]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean oil 01 is 8014 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.1%; soybean oil 05 is 7680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11%; soybean oil 09 is 8084 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.39% [11]. - CBOT soybean oil main contract is 54.69 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.76% [11]. - Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8200 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 80 yuan; the basis is 148 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 8 yuan [11]. Oilseeds Oilseed Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: Bean meal 01 is 3095 with a daily decrease of 3 and a decrease rate of 0.1%; bean meal 05 is 2761 with a daily increase of 3 and an increase rate of 0.11%; bean meal 09 is 3062 with a daily decrease of 12 and a decrease rate of 0.39% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2412 with a daily increase of 20 and an increase rate of 0.84%; rapeseed meal 05 is 2407 with a daily increase of 13 and an increase rate of 0.54%; rapeseed meal 09 is 2688 with a daily increase of 6 and an increase rate of 0.22% [18]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybeans**: The closing price is 1068 with no daily change and a change rate of 0% [18]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Soybean Meal Month - to - Month Spread**: M01 - 05 is 340 with a daily increase of 4; M05 - 09 is - 316 with a daily decrease of 8; M09 - 01 is - 24 with a daily increase of 4 [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal Month - to - Month Spread**: RM01 - 05 is - 2 with a daily increase of 5; RM05 - 09 is - 288 with a daily increase of 2; RM09 - 01 is 290 with a daily decrease of 7 [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread**: The spread is 349 with a daily increase of 19; the futures spread is 392 with a daily increase of 18 [19].

Group 1 - The article discusses a recent incident of account hacking related to stock market scams, highlighting the organized and large-scale nature of this illegal activity [2][3][5] - It emphasizes the importance of using proper business registration methods to avoid such issues, recommending that individuals register public accounts under corporate entities rather than individual business licenses [5][6] - The article warns about the proliferation of stock market scams, particularly during bullish market conditions, and advises caution, especially for older individuals who may be more susceptible to such schemes [6][7] Group 2 - The article notes a significant drop in the stock market, attributing it to global macro variables, particularly the impact of US-China negotiations, which affected multiple markets simultaneously [9] - It mentions the recent inclusion of certain stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which led to substantial price increases initially, but these stocks later experienced declines, indicating volatility in the market [12][13] - The article highlights the importance of understanding the implications of index adjustments, such as those in the S&P 500, which can lead to significant trading activity and price movements in related stocks [15][16] Group 3 - The article suggests that the current investment strategy remains focused on risk assets while not being bearish on bonds, indicating a positive outlook for certain investment opportunities [17]