消息面上，春节假期内中东局势出现新的变局，成为影响市场的短期不确定因素。假期伊始，美伊 地缘冲突发酵引发黄金、白银价格深度调整，而后半周避险情绪卷土重来，国际金价强势反弹。2月23 日，黄金、白银开盘直线拉升。现货黄金向上突破5170美元，日内涨超1%。现货白银涨超3%，升破87 美元。 中信证券，展望2026年全年，维持对贵金属和有色金属价格的乐观预期。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） A股迎来马年首个交易日，三大指数集体高开。 盘面上，有色金属领涨，白银有色涨超9%，兴业银锡、铜陵有色涨超6%，带动带动有色金属ETF 天弘(159157)标的指数大涨3.15%。 有色金属ETF天弘(159157)持续获得资金净流入，近10日资金净流入10.52亿元；其标的指数全面覆 盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土等行业，涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景 气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把握整个板块的贝塔行情。该ETF场外联接基金（A类：017192；C类： 017193）。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with companies like Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Northern Rare Earth seeing significant stock price increases of 7.98%, 6.72%, and 6.34% respectively, contributing to a nearly 3% rise in the Tianhong Non-ferrous Metal ETF (159157) [1] - The Tianhong Non-ferrous Metal ETF has attracted substantial capital inflow, with a total of 890 million shares purchased in a single day and a cumulative net inflow of 614 million yuan over three days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The ETF covers a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earths, allowing it to capture various market cycles effectively [1] Group 2 - On February 10, prices for mainstream rare earth products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxides have risen due to tight supply conditions and strong demand from downstream buyers [2] - The non-ferrous sector is expected to perform well in 2025, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum projected to see net profit increases of over 60% and 50% respectively, while Shenghe Resources and Huayu Mining are expected to see even higher profit growth [2] - Following price adjustments by tungsten companies, Zhangyuan Tungsten has also raised its long-term procurement prices for black and white tungsten concentrates by 28.1% [2] - The U.S. has initiated a $12 billion strategic metal reserve plan, and the Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association has suggested commercial interest subsidies for copper and copper concentrates to enhance resource value [2]

资金面则显示了明显的"避险"和"求稳"倾向。央行今日加量投放流动性，缓解了资金面担忧，但新入市 的资金以及部分存量资金，在近期全球科技股波动加剧的背景下，选择了流向股息率高、业绩稳定、且 受益于政策托底的板块。煤炭正是这类资产的典型代表。这种从成长向价值的仓位腾挪，是造成板块 间"跷跷板"效应的直接推手。 外部市场的传导效应也不容忽视。港股恒生科技指数今日再度大跌2.29%，其中软件与半导体板块跌幅 尤甚。这既受到全球范围内对AI技术颠覆传统商业模式担忧情绪的影响，也反映出国际资金对部分高 估值科技领域的重新定价。A股与港股在科技股上的联动性日益增强，这种负面情绪很自然地传导至A 股的TMT板块。 重点谈谈领涨的煤炭板块。它的崛起并非简单的超跌反弹。在"能源安全"的战略框架下，煤炭行业的定 位正在发生微妙变化，从单纯的"传统能源"向"稳定器"和"现代化产业基础"转变。这带来了估值体系重 塑的潜在可能。叠加其自身低估值、高现金流的财务特征，在不确定性上升的市场中，它自然成为了防 御性配置的优选。今日的暴涨，是市场对这份"确定性"给予的溢价。 展望未来，这种分化的态势可能不会迅速结束。市场将从普涨普跌的"贝塔行情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share core indices experienced a pullback after a significant surge, with the non-ferrous metals sector seeing a decline of over 3% in early trading, despite continued strong capital inflow into the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector's leading ETF (159876) saw its decline narrow to 1.2% after an initial drop [1] - On October 9, the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) attracted 117 million yuan in a single day, raising its total fund size to 493 million yuan, a new historical high [1] - As of the report, the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) received real-time net subscriptions exceeding 63 million units [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the recent surge in gold prices during the holiday period [1] - The rise in international gold prices is attributed to short-term fluctuations caused by the U.S. government shutdown, political changes in Japan, ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and global central banks' continued gold purchases [1] - Copper prices have also strengthened recently due to supply shortages and the logic of computational revolution [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, CITIC Securities indicates that the monetary easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, along with domestic initiatives to optimize production factors and improve profitability across various sectors, will facilitate the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream markets [1] Group 4: Sector Diversification - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying degrees of market conditions, rhythms, and driving factors, leading to inevitable differentiation [2] - A diversified approach through the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) allows for better capture of the sector's beta performance, with the index weights for copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium at 27.6%, 14.5%, 13.1%, 10.4%, and 8.4% respectively [2] - This diversified strategy helps mitigate risks compared to investing in a single metal sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - Index funds are becoming increasingly favored by public FOF (Fund of Funds) managers as they shift away from actively managed equity funds, primarily due to the predictable and researchable nature of index products [2][6]. Group 1: Performance of FOFs - As of July 23, the top seven performing public FOFs have all achieved returns exceeding 18% this year, with the highest return reaching approximately 22% [3]. - The top-performing FOFs have significantly reduced their holdings in actively managed equity products, with the core positions primarily consisting of index funds [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Changes - The investment strategy of FOFs has undergone a major shift, with a notable preference for index funds over active equity products, as evidenced by the holdings of the top-performing FOFs [4][5]. - For instance, the Guotai Fund's Guotai Preferred Navigation FOF has a core holding of nine funds, with 66.2% of its portfolio in index products, and only a minimal allocation to an active equity fund [4]. Group 3: Predictability and Research Efficiency - The stability, transparency, and predictability of index funds are key reasons for their growing preference among FOFs, as they require less research time compared to actively managed funds [6][7]. - FOF managers emphasize the importance of historical performance and the predictability of fund holdings, which are more easily observed in index products [7]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - FOFs are also capitalizing on opportunities in sectors experiencing significant downturns, focusing on index funds and ETFs to capture potential rebounds [8][9]. - The strategy includes maintaining a high equity position while diversifying across various sectors, such as military and non-bank financials, to enhance overall portfolio returns [9].