有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进 度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期 +政策托底+产业升级，股市机会成本下降，风险溢价改善，面对即将迎来的"春季行情"，或可积极把 握。 揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、 黄金、稀土、锂等行业，相较投资单一金属行业，能够分散风险，适合作为投资组合的一部分进行配 置。数据显示，截至12月11日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.35亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指 数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。截至12月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.4亿元，在全 市场3只跟踪同标的指数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 每日经济新闻 12月17日午后，有色板块持续走强，有色龙头ETF（159876）涨逾3%。昨日，有色龙头ETF（159876） 单日吸金1013万元，近20日累计吸金1.98亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市行情，积极入场抢筹。 中信建投证券认为，只要美联储仍处 ...

揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、 黄金、稀土、锂等行业，相较投资单一金属行业，能够分散风险，适合作为投资组合的一部分进行配 置。数据显示，截至12月11日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.35亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指 数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 每日经济新闻 12月12日，有色板块大幅高开领涨，资金继续猛攻，ETF实时申赎数据显示，有色龙头ETF（159876） 实时净申购超1100万份。截至12月11日，已连续4个交易日，每天数千万资金净流入有色龙头ETF （159876）。近20个交易日，有色龙头ETF（159876）累计吸金3.71亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块 后市行情，积极入场抢筹。 宏观方面，美联储降息靴子落地，中信建投证券指出，只要美联储仍处于降息通道（未来仍有进一步降 息预期），有色金属价格仍有上涨动力。展望后市，东方证券指出，美联储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实 物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较大的价格弹性。本轮降息周期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业 金属超级周期或已来临。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share major indices declined, while the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) rose by 0.33%, indicating strong market interest with a net subscription of 51 million units [1] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has seen a total net inflow of 54.3 million yuan over the past two days, with a current fund size of 748 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on December 9-10 is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut with a probability of 89.4%, which is anticipated to support the price increase of nonferrous metals [1] Group 2 - During the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, tight supply and demand for physical assets are expected to create significant price elasticity, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - The demand for copper is projected to increase due to power investments by 2026, while storage and alternative demands are expected to drive aluminum demand [2] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a broad range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a general pullback on December 4, while the non-ferrous metal sector continued to rise, with the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) surging over 2% and attracting significant net subscriptions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector showed resilience, with key stocks like Xiyang Co., Western Mining, and Huaxi Nonferrous rising over 5% [1] - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) saw a net subscription of 1.8 million units, marking three consecutive days of net inflow [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have increased, with an 80.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which has positively impacted the prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1] - Chile's state-owned copper company has set a historical high for copper premiums offered to U.S. customers, alongside frequent disruptions in global copper supply, leading to a rapid increase in LME copper prices [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Guosen Securities noted that the non-ferrous metal industry remains relatively stable, with slight price increases for copper and aluminum, while inventory levels remain high, indicating strong resilience [1] - The black metal smelting sector has established a replenishment trend, with narrowing price declines contributing to a recovery in industry prosperity [1] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its connected fund (017140) passively track the CSI Non-Ferrous Index, which covers copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound of the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) indicates significant capital inflow and optimism towards the nonferrous metal sector, driven by performance, industry dynamics, policy support, and macroeconomic factors [1][2]. Group 1: Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, 56 out of 60 constituent companies of the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF reported profits, with 44 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The current nonferrous metal bull market is characterized as a "new productivity bull market," with demand driven by emerging sectors such as new energy, AI, and aerospace, while supply-side disruptions have intensified supply-demand conflicts, leading to higher metal prices [1]. Group 3: Policy Support - The joint issuance of the "Nonferrous Metal Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" by eight departments aims to strengthen strategic resource guarantees and promote digital upgrades in the industry [1]. - Policies aimed at optimizing industry supply structures are also in place, alongside large-scale infrastructure projects like the Yaxi Hydropower Project, which create demand for nonferrous metal raw materials [1]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to boost nonferrous metal prices [1]. - The global monetary easing cycle and the strategic importance of resources are anticipated to drive a new supply-demand balance in the nonferrous metal sector [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index, surpassing 4000 points, is driven by strong gains in the non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors, indicating a bullish trend in these industries [1] Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The Non-Ferrous Metals Leader ETF (159876) saw a price increase of 4.46%, with a trading volume exceeding 580 million yuan, reflecting active market participation [1] - Among the 60 constituent stocks of the Non-Ferrous Metals Leader ETF, 44 companies have reported Q3 results, with 40 achieving profitability and 31 showing year-on-year net profit growth [1] - Industry experts believe that non-ferrous metals are positioned as a key component in the current commodity bull market, driven by long-term capital expenditure cycles and increasing global manufacturing investment [1] Group 2: Chemical Sector - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracked a significant upward trend, with a price increase of over 3% throughout the day, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The price-to-earnings ratio of the Chemical ETF's underlying index is 20.08, which is at a low point compared to the past decade, suggesting attractive long-term investment opportunities [2] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a recovery phase, with improving demand and low inventory levels, leading to a potential rebound in profitability [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metals Leader ETF provides diversification across various metals, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, making it suitable for portfolio allocation [2] - The Chemical ETF covers a wide range of sub-sectors within the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a strong rebound in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by price increases announced by two major rare earth companies, resulting in over 17 billion yuan of net inflow from institutional investors [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector ETF (159876) saw a price increase of over 4%, with real-time transaction volume exceeding 110 million yuan, indicating high trading activity [1] - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) has attracted 258 million yuan in the last three trading days, reaching a record high fund size of 584 million yuan, making it the largest ETF product in its index [1] Group 2 - China holds a leading position in the rare earth sector, with a projected mining share of 61% of global output in 2024, and over 90% of the refining process concentrated in China [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with precious metals influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and tariff policies, leading to international gold prices surpassing 4,000 USD [1] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing price increases due to supply constraints from Indonesian mine shutdowns and a weak dollar environment, while rare earth prices remain strong due to tightening export control policies [1] Group 3 - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying degrees of prosperity, rhythm, and driving factors, leading to inevitable differentiation within the sector [2] - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) allows for better risk management across the entire sector, as it passively tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index with significant weightings in copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share core indices experienced a pullback after a significant surge, with the non-ferrous metals sector seeing a decline of over 3% in early trading, despite continued strong capital inflow into the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector's leading ETF (159876) saw its decline narrow to 1.2% after an initial drop [1] - On October 9, the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) attracted 117 million yuan in a single day, raising its total fund size to 493 million yuan, a new historical high [1] - As of the report, the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) received real-time net subscriptions exceeding 63 million units [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the recent surge in gold prices during the holiday period [1] - The rise in international gold prices is attributed to short-term fluctuations caused by the U.S. government shutdown, political changes in Japan, ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and global central banks' continued gold purchases [1] - Copper prices have also strengthened recently due to supply shortages and the logic of computational revolution [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, CITIC Securities indicates that the monetary easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, along with domestic initiatives to optimize production factors and improve profitability across various sectors, will facilitate the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream markets [1] Group 4: Sector Diversification - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying degrees of market conditions, rhythms, and driving factors, leading to inevitable differentiation [2] - A diversified approach through the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) allows for better capture of the sector's beta performance, with the index weights for copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium at 27.6%, 14.5%, 13.1%, 10.4%, and 8.4% respectively [2] - This diversified strategy helps mitigate risks compared to investing in a single metal sector [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant inflow of funds into the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly through the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876), which has seen a year-to-date increase of over 50% as of September 16, 2023 [1][2] - On September 15, 2023, spot gold reached a historical high of $3678.89 per ounce, marking a milestone in global financial asset pricing, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and increased market risk aversion [1] - Analysts suggest that the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts will lead to a depreciation of the dollar, making dollar-denominated metals cheaper and boosting global demand, while also reducing borrowing costs for companies, thereby increasing demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities forecasts that the ongoing monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, combined with domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors and improving profitability, will support upward price transmission for metals [2] - As of the end of August, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) have significant weightings in copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), rare earths (13.8%), gold (13.6%), and lithium (7.6%), which helps to diversify risk compared to investing in single metal sectors [2] - The latest scale of the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) reached a historical high of 281 million yuan as of September 15, 2023 [2]