本周，沪指累涨1.4%，深成指、创指更为强势，周涨3.56%、4.54%，三大指数集体终结周线两连阴。 从月度来看，11月沪指开启4000点拉锯战，单月下跌1.67%，科技股波动较大，深成指、创指各跌 2.95%、4.23%。 展望后市，财信证券认为，短期内，继续等待放量长阳或者其他明确的回暖信号出现。预计12月中旬左 右，随着机构资金重新布局明年方向、美联储降息靴子落地。届时A股市场将迎来新一轮做多窗口期。 【ETF全知道热点收评】下面重点聊聊有色、化工、国防军工等几个板块的交易和基本面情况。 11月最后一个交易日（11月28日），三大指数集体红盘收官，沪指涨0.34%报3888.6点，创指涨0.7%。 市场交投较为清淡，全天成交1.6万亿元，量能降至近4个月地量水平。 | 序号 代码 类型 名称 | 现价 涨跌幅 ▼ 溢折率 成交额 | | --- | --- | | 1 159876 主 有色龙头ETF | 0.885 c 1.72% 0.06% 2335.55万 | | 2 516020 | 0.793 c 1.41% 0.19% 9718.70万 主 化工ETF | | 3 512810 主 国防军 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) showing strong performance and attracting significant capital inflow, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) saw an increase of over 1.95%, currently up 1.72%, and has recovered above the 10-day moving average [1]. - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has attracted 233 million yuan in capital, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - As of November 27, the ETF's latest scale is 672 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Major stocks contributing to the ETF's performance include Shengxin Lithium Energy and Guocheng Mining, both rising over 7%, with Yahua Group close to 6% [3]. - Other notable stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, both increasing by over 1% [3]. Group 3: Market Drivers - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data have bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 40% to over 80% [3]. - The price of gold on COMEX has surpassed 4200 USD/oz, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The current non-ferrous metal bull market is characterized as a "new quality productivity bull market," driven by demand from emerging sectors such as new energy, AI, and aerospace, alongside supply-side disruptions [5]. - Policy support includes a joint plan from eight departments to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, emphasizing resource security and digital upgrades [5]. - Analysts predict a new cycle of supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with potential for further market advancements by 2026 [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) provides comprehensive coverage across various metals, making it a suitable option for investors looking to diversify their exposure to the sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) showing significant price increases and attracting substantial investment, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) saw a price increase of over 1.95%, currently up 1.72%, and has recovered its 10-day moving average [1]. - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has attracted 233 million yuan in investments, reflecting strong market interest [1]. - As of November 27, the ETF's latest scale is 672 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Major stocks leading the gains include Shengxin Lithium Energy and Guocheng Mining, both up over 7%, with Yahua Group rising nearly 6% [3]. - Other stocks such as Xinyi Silver Tin, Zhongkuang Resources, and Yongxing Materials also showed positive performance, contributing to the overall sector growth [3]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The recent speeches from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data have bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 40% to over 80% [4]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to support the entire non-ferrous metal sector, as lower rates typically lead to increased demand for physical assets like metals [5]. Group 4: Positive Catalysts for Non-Ferrous ETF - In the latest quarterly report, 56 out of 60 component stocks of the non-ferrous leader ETF reported profits, with 44 companies showing year-on-year net profit growth [7]. - The current non-ferrous bull market is driven by new demand from sectors such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace, contrasting with previous cycles reliant on real estate and infrastructure [7]. - Policy support includes a joint plan from eight departments to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, enhancing resource security and promoting digital upgrades [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, with expectations for further advancements in the bull market by 2026 [7][8]. - The non-ferrous leader ETF and its associated funds provide comprehensive exposure to various metals, making them suitable for risk diversification in investment portfolios [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876), indicates strong investor confidence and potential for continued growth in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) saw a morning surge of 1.61% on November 27, reflecting positive market sentiment [1]. - Over the past 10 days, this ETF has attracted a total of 193 million yuan in investments, indicating strong buying interest [1]. - As of November 26, the ETF's latest scale reached 671 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's recent Beige Book report highlighted a decline in consumer spending, which is a significant factor in the stagnation of the U.S. economy [3]. - There is an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool [3]. - JPMorgan has revised its outlook, now expecting the Fed to lower rates in December, contrary to its previous prediction of a delay until January [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts generally believe that the non-ferrous metals sector is poised to continue its bull market, with various institutions expressing optimism about the sector's future [4]. - Key focus areas include industrial metals like copper and aluminum, which are expected to benefit from supply constraints and recovering demand [4]. - The energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, is anticipated to thrive due to surging demand from energy storage and electric vehicle markets [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - For investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metals sector, a diversified approach through the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) and its associated funds is recommended [5]. - This ETF provides comprehensive coverage across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for risk diversification [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by recent market trends and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3][4]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) has seen a price increase of 0.46% and has attracted 206 million yuan in the last 10 days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - As of November 25, the total size of the non-ferrous metals ETF reached 686 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan suggested increasing rate cuts to support the economy, with an 84.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [3]. - Analysts believe that a Fed rate cut could boost non-ferrous metal prices due to currency depreciation, making metals cheaper in dollar terms and increasing global demand [3]. - Institutions are optimistic about the non-ferrous metals sector continuing a bull market, with key focus areas including copper and aluminum due to supply constraints and recovering demand, as well as lithium and cobalt driven by energy storage and battery needs [3]. Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide comprehensive coverage of various metals, allowing for better risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant gains, with the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) seeing a peak increase of 2.7% and currently up by 1.88%, indicating strong market confidence in the sector's future performance [1][4]. Fund Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 213 million yuan in the past 10 days, reflecting positive investor sentiment towards the sector [1]. - As of November 24, the ETF's latest scale reached 676 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Stock Performance - Key stocks within the ETF have shown strong performance, with Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like Western Gold, Xiyang Co., and Zhongjin Gold rising over 4% [3][4]. Market Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector. Zhongtai Securities is particularly bullish on a comprehensive bull market, while CITIC Securities anticipates sustained investment interest in commodities [4][5]. - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Industrial metals like copper and aluminum, which are expected to benefit from supply constraints and recovering demand. 2. Energy metals such as lithium and cobalt, which are poised to gain from the explosive demand in energy storage and power batteries. 3. Strategic assets like gold and rare earths [4][5]. Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall sector's beta performance while mitigating risks associated with investing in single metal industries [5].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant gains, with the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) showing a rise of 1.88% and attracting substantial investment, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][4]. Investment Trends - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) has accumulated 213 million yuan in the past 10 days, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - As of November 24, the ETF's latest scale reached 676 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Stock Performance - Key stocks in the sector, such as Huaxi Nonferrous and Western Gold, have seen significant price increases, with several stocks rising over 4% [3]. Market Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, with various firms highlighting potential growth in industrial metals like copper and aluminum, as well as energy metals such as lithium and cobalt [4]. - The focus is on three main themes: supply constraints and recovering demand for industrial metals, explosive demand for energy metals due to storage and battery needs, and strategic assets like gold and rare earths [4]. Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) is recommended to capture the overall sector's performance while mitigating risks associated with individual metal investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions and monetary policy outlook are driving investment interest in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant inflows into related ETFs indicating positive market sentiment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Activity - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) attracted 73.7 million yuan in a single day and a total of 205 million yuan over the past 10 days, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector [1]. - As of November 21, the ETF's total size reached 677 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly the recent attack on Moscow, is expected to disrupt the supply of key metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper, potentially leading to price increases due to supply chain gaps [3]. - The conflict is also likely to stimulate demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and copper, as investors seek to hedge against geopolitical risks [3]. - Increased strategic reserve requirements for metals used in defense applications, such as antimony, are anticipated due to the ongoing military tensions [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve's New York President suggest potential for further interest rate cuts, which could support non-ferrous metal prices [4]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have surged to 70%, indicating a strong belief in continued accommodative monetary policy [3][4]. Group 4: Sector Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in non-ferrous metals, with various institutions forecasting sustained upward momentum [4]. - Key investment themes include industrial metals like copper and aluminum, energy metals such as lithium and cobalt, and strategic assets like gold and rare earths [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall sector performance while mitigating risks associated with individual metal investments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly through the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), indicates strong market confidence in the future performance of this sector [1][4]. Investment Trends - On November 21, the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) attracted 73.7 million yuan in a single day, with a total of 205 million yuan accumulated over the past 10 days, reflecting positive market sentiment [1]. - As of November 21, the ETF's latest scale reached 677 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly the recent attack on Moscow, is expected to impact the supply of key metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper, potentially driving prices higher due to supply chain disruptions and increased sanctions against Russian metals [3]. - The conflict is also likely to stimulate demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and copper, as investors seek to hedge against geopolitical risks [3]. - Increased strategic reserve demands for metals used in defense applications, such as antimony, are anticipated due to the ongoing military tensions [3]. Macroeconomic Influences - Recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve's New York Bank President, indicating potential for further interest rate cuts, have heightened expectations for a 70% probability of a rate cut in December [3][4]. - Analysts believe that even if the Fed pauses a rate cut, the ongoing expectation of future cuts will continue to support non-ferrous metal prices [4]. Market Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, with various analysts highlighting three main investment themes: constrained supply and recovering demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum, explosive demand for energy metals like lithium and cobalt, and strategic assets such as gold and rare earths [4]. - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide comprehensive exposure to various metals, allowing for risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing volatility due to declining expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing declines in Japanese government bonds, leading to a sell-off in A-shares, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 21, A-shares saw all three major indices decline, with the non-ferrous metals sector ETF (159876) dropping by 5.62%, with a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan [1]. - Despite the market downturn, the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) attracted a net subscription of 85.2 million units, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1]. Group 2: Employment Data and Fed Policy - The U.S. Labor Department reported an unexpected increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, which raises the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates next month [3]. - Even if the Fed pauses a rate cut, as long as it remains in a rate-cutting cycle, there is still upward momentum for non-ferrous metal prices, suggesting that the sector's bullish trend is not over [3]. Group 3: Lithium Market Dynamics - In November, lithium carbonate futures have been on the rise, with prices reaching over 100,000 yuan/ton, marking a 67% increase from the year's low on May 30 [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a supply shortage of approximately 13,000 tons, with demand at 128,000 tons against a supply of 115,000 tons, indicating a continued upward pressure on prices [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions generally believe that the non-ferrous metals sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with various firms expressing optimism about a comprehensive bull market in non-ferrous metals [4]. - Key investment themes include industrial metals like copper and aluminum, energy metals such as lithium and cobalt, and strategic assets like gold and rare earths [4]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) offers broad exposure across various metals, which can help mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [4].