"反内卷"方向亦有亮眼表现，碳酸锂期货主力合约突然暴拉，化工ETF（516020）、有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格分别收涨3.48%、3.27%。 今日（12月17日）A股三大指数集体走强，沪指涨逾1%，创业板指涨超3%，沪深两市成交额1.81万亿元，环比放量870亿元。 市场为何突然拉升？可能和三方面因素相关：①"牛市骑手"券商股午后持续走强，或有资金在博弈中金公司复牌；②午后多只宽基ETF放量异动，可能有重 要资金进场护盘；③日本央行前副行长发表反对过早加息言论，一定程度上缓解了市场对全球流动性收紧的担忧。 盘面上，光模块CPO强势爆发，新易盛、中际旭创包揽A股吸金榜前二，创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内价格放量猛涨5%，全天获资金净申购1.62亿 份；同样受益于光模块涨势，硬科技宽基——双创龙头ETF（588330）场内价格豪涨4%，近5日获抄底科技资金净流入8953万元。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 15 | 159363 | 创业板人工智能ETF华宝 | 5.00% | | 2 | 588330 | 双创龙 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing consolidation, with A-shares showing a downward trend, while the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), is performing well, indicating strong technical momentum [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) has seen an intraday high increase of 0.77% and is currently up 0.44%, remaining above all moving averages, suggesting strong technical momentum [1] - Major stocks in the non-ferrous sector include Huayou Cobalt, which rose over 4%, and several others like Baotai Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xiyang Co. that increased by more than 3% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to influence the commodity market, with three main lines projected to drive the rise in non-ferrous metal prices: "green inflation" related to basic metals, "anti-involution" policies affecting lithium and other new energy metals, and a potential "interest rate cut wave" benefiting precious metals like gold [2][3] - The "green inflation" narrative suggests that demand for copper and aluminum will continue to rise due to the growth of new industries such as AI and renewable energy, with expectations of price increases driven by supply shortages [2] - The "anti-involution" aspect indicates that lithium prices may rise as excess capacity is cleared and costs increase, with projections for lithium carbonate prices to reach 90,000-100,000, potentially rising to 120,000 by 2026 [3] - The anticipated acceleration of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts could enhance gold's appeal as a non-replaceable monetary asset, providing opportunities for investment in precious metals [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its bullish trend, with various institutions expressing optimism about the ongoing bull market [4] - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) is recommended, as it covers a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, thus mitigating risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [5] - As of December 16, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) has a total scale of 840 million, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with all three major indices in the red, while the non-ferrous metal sector's leading ETF (159876) is showing resilience and positive momentum, indicating strong technical performance [1][9]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal leading ETF (159876) reached a peak intraday increase of 0.77% and is currently up 0.44%, trading above all moving averages, suggesting strong upward momentum [1][9]. - Major constituents of the ETF include Huayou Cobalt, which rose over 4%, and other companies like Baotai Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xiyang Co. which saw increases of over 3% [1][10]. Future Outlook - According to Huabao Fund, three main themes are expected to drive non-ferrous metal prices upward through 2026: 1. "Green Inflation" related to basic metals like copper and aluminum, driven by the growth of new economies such as AI and renewable energy, is anticipated to create a demand-supply imbalance, supporting price increases [3][11]. 2. "Anti-Overcapacity" policies in sectors like lithium and coal are expected to stabilize supply and demand, with lithium prices projected to rise from a bottom of 90,000-100,000 to 120,000 [3][11]. 3. A potential "Interest Rate Cut Wave" could enhance gold's appeal as a monetary asset, with expectations of price increases for precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [4][12]. Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its bullish trend, with institutions like Zhongtai Securities and CITIC Securities expressing optimism about the ongoing bull market [4][12]. - The non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) and its linked funds are recommended for investors seeking diversified exposure across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which can help mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors [5][14]. ETF Details - As of December 16, the non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has a total size of 840 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [7][16].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up over 1% and the ChiNext Index up more than 3%, with a trading volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 870 billion yuan from the previous day [1][2] - The surge in the market is attributed to three main factors: the strong performance of brokerage stocks, significant movements in broad-based ETFs, and comments from a former Japanese central bank deputy governor easing concerns about global liquidity tightening [1][3] Sector Performance - The optical module sector experienced a strong breakout, with companies like NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang leading in capital absorption, while the ChiNext AI ETF saw a price increase of 5% and net subscriptions of 162 million units [1][6] - The "anti-involution" theme also performed well, with lithium carbonate futures surging, leading to gains of 3.48% and 3.27% in the chemical and non-ferrous metal ETFs, respectively [1][6] Investment Strategies - Investment institutions are optimistic about a transition from a structural bull market to a more comprehensive bull market by 2026, with a focus on technology and "anti-involution" themes [2][3] - The overall net profit growth for non-financial A-shares is expected to reach 16.5% in 2026, driven by a recovery in profitability across high-growth sectors [3][11] Key Stocks and ETFs - The top-performing ETFs included the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) with a 5% increase, the Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) with a 4.02% rise, and the Chemical ETF (516020) with a 3.48% gain [2][4] - Notable stocks in the optical module sector included LianTe Technology, which hit a 20% limit up, and NewEase, which rose over 9% to a new closing high [4][6] Future Outlook - The global optical module market is projected to exceed $37 billion by 2029, with significant demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules expected to peak in 2025 [6][7] - The chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in manufacturing demand and rising raw material prices, with a focus on lithium carbonate as a key growth driver in the energy storage industry [11][12]

有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进 度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期 +政策托底+产业升级，股市机会成本下降，风险溢价改善，面对即将迎来的"春季行情"，或可积极把 握。 揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、 黄金、稀土、锂等行业，相较投资单一金属行业，能够分散风险，适合作为投资组合的一部分进行配 置。数据显示，截至12月11日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.35亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指 数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。截至12月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.4亿元，在全 市场3只跟踪同标的指数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 每日经济新闻 12月17日午后，有色板块持续走强，有色龙头ETF（159876）涨逾3%。昨日，有色龙头ETF（159876） 单日吸金1013万元，近20日累计吸金1.98亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市行情，积极入场抢筹。 中信建投证券认为，只要美联储仍处 ...

数据显示，截至12月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.4亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指数的ETF产品中， 是规模最大的ETF。 成份股方面，国城矿业涨停，盛新锂能涨逾7%，中矿资源、雅化集团携手涨超5%，天齐锂业、中孚实业、永兴材 料、兴业银锡等个股大幅跟涨。 图：有色龙头ETF标的指数涨幅前10大成份股 今日（12月17日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）强势上攻，场内涨幅盘中上探1.92%，现涨 1.81%，值得关注的是，该ETF昨天单日吸金1013万元，拉长时间来看，近20日累计吸金1.98亿元，反映资金看好有色 金属板块后市表现，积极进场抢筹！ 中信建投证券认为，只要美联储仍处于降息通道（未来仍有进一步降息预期），有色金属价格仍有上涨动力。东方证 券指出，美联储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较大的价格弹性。本轮降息周 期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进度、"反内卷"政策 效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续 ...

中信建投证券认为，只要美联储仍处于降息通道（未来仍有进一步降息预期），有色金属价格仍有上涨 动力。东方证券指出，美联储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较 大的价格弹性。本轮降息周期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。 成份股方面，国城矿业涨停，盛新锂能涨逾7%，中矿资源、雅化集团携手涨超5%，天齐锂业、中孚实 业、永兴材料、兴业银锡等个股大幅跟涨。 消息面上，美国就业市场疲弱，美国11月新增非农就业6.4万人，失业率意外升至4.6%为四年来新高， 10月就业减少10.5万人逊于预期。报告发布后，现货黄金直线拉升，日内涨0.43%。分析师称，就业数 据将显示劳动力市场"逐步降温"。交易员仍押注美联储在2026年会降息两次。 数据显示，截至12月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.4亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指数的 ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进 度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期 图：有色龙头 ETF 标的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, with the A-share indices showing a downward trend. However, there is significant capital inflow into the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating positive sentiment towards its future performance [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) has seen a price drop of 1.32% in the market, but it has attracted 203 million yuan in capital over the past 20 days, reflecting investor confidence in the sector [1][8]. - Leading stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper have shown positive performance, while companies like Western Superconducting and Chuangjiang New Material have experienced declines exceeding 4% [1][8]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Analysts attribute the active investment in the non-ferrous metals sector to China's ambition to transition from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing stronghold, with non-ferrous companies emerging as successful players in this landscape [3][4]. - In gold, China holds an 11% share of global gold production, with leading companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold forming a competitive industry structure [3][10]. - For copper, China's refined copper production is projected to reach 13.64 million tons in 2024, accounting for 50% of global output, with a CR5 capacity concentration of 58% [3][10]. - In aluminum, China dominates the global market with 4.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, representing 57% of global supply, and the top seven Chinese companies account for 37% of global production [3][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that the non-ferrous metals sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with institutions like Zhongtai Securities and CITIC Securities expressing optimism about the ongoing commodity investment enthusiasm [4][10]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF and its associated funds provide comprehensive coverage across various metals, allowing for risk diversification and making them suitable for investment portfolios [5][11].

今日（12月15日）市场盘整，A股三大指数悉数飘绿，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876） 逆市活跃，彰显韧性，场内价格现涨0.22%，值得关注的是，该ETF此前连续5日获资金净流入，合计金 额1.56亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市表现，积极进场布局！ 1、宏观层面来看，全球货币体系深层变化，即美元信用受损触发的"去美元化"趋势，进一步强化了有色 金属的金融属性，使其商品与货币属性形成共振。 2、供需格局来看，供给侧，以铜为代表的工业金属受长期资本开支不足和产能周期制约，供给增长受 限；需求侧则受益于新能源、人工智能等新兴产业及全球能源转型带来的强劲需求。旺盛的需求与行 业"反内卷"持续推进，可能使部分有色金属的供需紧平衡格局延续，推升有色金属价格中枢。 3、细分方向来看，不同细分板块的驱动因素存在显著差异：工业金属主要受经济周期景气度变化的支 配；贵金属则更多聚焦于全球货币环境、避险情绪及重大风险事件的影响，凸显其"货币锚"属性；而小 金属的行情波动往往与相关产业的技术创新、细分领域产业政策的调整等结构性因素密切相关。 业内人士指出，本轮美联储的货币政策，表现出相比以往经济周期更为谨慎和缓 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the performance of the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876), which has seen a net inflow of 156 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1][8] - As of December 12, the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has a total scale of 862 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1][8] - Key stocks within the ETF have shown significant gains, with Steel Research High-Tech leading with over 7% increase, followed by Huafeng Aluminum and Huaxi Nonferrous with gains exceeding 5% and 4% respectively [1][8] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metals sector has been a major investment theme in the A-share market this year, driven by increased allocations from public funds, social security funds, and foreign institutions [3][10] - Macro factors influencing this trend include a shift in the global monetary system, particularly the "de-dollarization" trend, which enhances the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals [3][10] - Supply-demand dynamics are also pivotal, with limited supply growth due to insufficient long-term capital expenditure and capacity constraints, while demand is bolstered by emerging industries such as renewable energy and artificial intelligence [3][10] Group 3 - Analysts express optimism for the non-ferrous metals sector, anticipating a continuation of the bull market, with various institutions projecting sustained investment interest in commodities [4][11] - The current pricing of non-ferrous metals is viewed as relatively healthy, with overall valuations remaining rational [4][11] - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying degrees of market dynamics, with industrial metals influenced by economic cycles, precious metals more affected by global monetary conditions, and minor metals driven by technological innovations and policy adjustments [5][10] Group 4 - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide comprehensive coverage across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [5][12] - This ETF strategy is recommended as a part of an investment portfolio to better capture the overall sector's beta performance [5][12]