Core Viewpoint - The changes in institutional liability behavior have become a primary driving factor for trends and structures in the equity market this year, despite marginal changes in macroeconomic conditions and liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Behavior and Market Trends - The shift in institutional liability behavior is more fundamental than the observed capital flow phenomena, indicating a reversal from years of chasing low-risk assets to a focus on performance-driven technology stocks and a withdrawal from long-duration bonds [2]. - The increase in the proportion of dividend insurance, multi-asset products in wealth management, and the conversion of matured fixed deposits have indirectly influenced long-term changes in institutional behavior [2]. Group 2: Bull Market Outlook - The current bull market is expected to continue, driven by liability-side factors pushing institutional allocations towards the stock market. The period from 2022 to 2024 saw capital flowing out of the stock market into low-risk assets, with 2025 marking a turning point back towards equities [3]. - As of the first three quarters of this year, net inflows into the stock market from insurance amounted to approximately 1.44 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.1 trillion yuan after excluding market value growth [3]. Group 3: Forecasts for Future Inflows - Predictions for 2026 indicate that institutional inflows into the stock market will reach approximately 3.1 trillion yuan, with the scale of public fixed income products expected to double from this year's levels [3][4]. - The expected inflows from insurance, wealth management, and pension funds for 2026 and 2027 are projected to be around 1.5 trillion yuan and 1.7 trillion yuan, respectively [4][18]. Group 4: Wealth Management and Pension Fund Dynamics - The amount of fixed deposits maturing in 2025-2026 is estimated to reach 142 trillion yuan, with a portion likely to be reinvested in wealth management products, potentially increasing equity investment proportions to 4% and 6% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][23]. - Pension funds are anticipated to contribute significantly to the stock market, with expected inflows of approximately 6.8 billion yuan and 8.0 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027 [4][15]. Group 5: Quantitative Analysis of Investment Behavior - The insurance sector's investment portfolio needs to increase its equity proportion by 4.96% to achieve a balanced return, with a target equity investment ratio of 18.31% [4][17]. - The growth in the scale of wealth management products is expected to continue, with significant inflows projected as fixed deposits mature and investors seek higher returns [24].

来源：中泰证券研究所 原标题： 《为有源头活水来：从资金现象到负债行为》 今年，在宏观和流动性边际变化不大的情况下，机构负债行为的变化成为了权益市场趋势和结构的主要 驱动因子。 我们认为相比于机构买卖呈现的资金流现象，机构背后负债行为的变化更为本质。 回顾今年，市场投票到有业绩的科技股、流出利率敏感性资产超长债等，代表着持续了多年的"追逐无 风险资产交易"的逆转。 分红险占比的提高、理财固收多资产产品的提高，和定存到期的转换，负债行为的变化间接影响了机构 行为的长期变化。 今年我们坚定看好本轮牛市，看多的逻辑来自于负债端驱动机构配置向股市倾斜。 如果说2022-2024年是一轮周期，各路资金从股市流出，先后涌入定期存款、债券、红利、黄金等"低风 险资产"，那么2025年就是天平重新转向股票的转折点。 今年我们持续强调险资增配股票，这只是一个缩影，展望明年，负债端的力量还将继续发挥作用，并产 生势不可挡的力量。 分析牛市能持续多久，从负债驱动的视角，需要明确，第一，今年以来的牛市途中负债驱动形成了多少 流入股市的资金；第二，展望明年，负债驱动的力量还有多强？ 2025年股市已经实现了2.26万亿的净流入。 截至 ...