（来源：品债论市） 我们从去年7月以来，一直强调负债行为对当下权益、固收类乃至于商品的跨资产影响，当时是看到了几点趋势： 在2025年8月24日《如何做专业的"负债端"研究——A 股为什么会涨？》中提出：要重视负债行为的研究，负债端驱动资金趋势性重返A股市场，形成了 比资产端更强的上行力量。 元旦以来，我们明显能看到，A股正在经历这三个因子的叠加共振： 1）负债行为进一步变化：分红险热卖、理财产品结构趋向含权理财，引起各类资管机构投资行为的变化，而在负债流入相对后置的机构，能明显感到"恐 高"； 2）资产端催化的科技三大方向共振：从11月蓄力的商业航天，12月底以来海外内存涨价带动的存储、算力链，1月份以来的AI应用等，与商品共振上行 的有色。这些板块的上涨，不能单纯地从业绩、市场空间的资产定价方式出发，而简单的归结于"情绪"，描述颗粒度又过于粗糙； 我们在2025年7月10日的中期策略报告《资金驱动，科技进攻》中旗帜鲜明指出负债端驱动保险增配权益，机构的增量资金驱动市场上涨，科技是最确定 的弹性方向。 3）本应该属于债券的"开门红"季节性行情，很大程度上"转移"给了权益，延续了2024年3月份后债券季节性全 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of more than 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [35] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since the New Year's Day, the A-share market has been experiencing the overlapping resonance of three factors: further changes in liability behavior, multi-directional catalysis on the asset side, and the transfer of the bond market's "good start" seasonal market to the equity market [2][8][9] - The bull market's confidence stems from the concentrated maturity of time deposits and the activation of deposits. From "current deposits - wealth management products - dividend - insurance policies - public funds", the attractiveness and the degree of embracing equity assets increase significantly [2] - Dividend - insurance policies can serve as an alternative to high - interest time deposits after maturity. The current time deposit interest rate is lower than the "guaranteed return" part of dividend - insurance policies [2][18] - With the rapid expansion of wealth management scale, relying solely on bond funds is difficult to meet the performance requirements, forcing funds to seek elasticity in equity assets. The structure of wealth management products is moving towards equity - linked ones [2][22] - The seasonality of the bond market has not disappeared but has shifted to the stock market, forming the "good start" of the stock market [2][25] - Forget the "expectation gap", and the flywheel effect of "money - production capacity" is emerging. AI can boost the reinvestment expectations of traditional industries, and the reinflation of products will lead to changes in capital expenditure and production capacity expansion [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Understanding from the Liability - side Perspective - **Deposit Activation and Reinvestment**: Since 2022, time deposit interest rates have been lowered multiple times. The 1 - year deposit rate has dropped from 1.75% to 0.95%, and the 3 - year rate from 2.75% to 1.25%. The re - investment of time deposits shows a "trickle - down effect", with funds flowing to current deposits and equity - linked products. The attractiveness and the degree of embracing equity assets increase step - by - step from "current deposits - wealth management products - dividend - insurance policies - public funds" [11][14][17] - **Dividend - insurance Policies as an Alternative**: Dividend - insurance policies have a "guaranteed return + floating dividend" feature, with a guaranteed return capped at 1.75% and at least 70% of distributable surplus distributed to policyholders. They have higher investment returns, lower rigid costs for insurance companies, and relatively shorter effective durations. Their liability - side characteristics lead to a higher proportion of equity investment and shorter - term fixed - income investment [18][19] - **Equity - linked Fixed - income Products**: The rapid expansion of wealth management scale poses challenges to asset - side returns. Even with an optimistic assumption for the 2026 bond market, the upper limit of the return from bond funds is only 2.1%, so adding equity is needed to increase returns. Equity - linked fixed - income products are shifting from high - dividend to high - volatility and technology sectors [22] - **Impact on Stock - Bond Balance**: The seasonality of the bond market is caused by the maturity of various deposits and the behavior of banks to meet quotas. Due to the strong trend of deposit migration to wealth management and insurance, the funds that should have flowed into bonds have instead entered equity - linked wealth management products or dividend - insurance policies, leading to the transfer of the bond market's seasonality to the stock market [25] - **The Emergence of the Flywheel Effect**: The "expectation gap" thinking is suitable for a static environment of stock - fund games. Currently, at the moment of rapid switching of liability behavior, the institutions where liabilities flow first are more leading. The AI sector has a flywheel effect on traditional industries' reinvestment and employment, and the reinflation of products will drive capital expenditure and production capacity expansion in relevant industries [27][28][31]