Core Viewpoint - As of December 30, 21 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for January 2026, totaling 771.2 billion yuan, compared to 284.6 billion yuan planned for January 2025 [1] Group 1: Local Bond Issuance - The current fiscal revenue and expenditure face certain pressures, making growth stabilization urgent [1] - The project timelines are gradually extending, indicating that local governments are unlikely to delay bond issuance or shorten issuance periods due to fluctuations in secondary market interest rates [1] - A rough comparison shows that the issuance period for local bonds in the first quarter of 2026 has decreased, but due to limited samples and the typical discrepancies between planned and actual issuance, it cannot be simply concluded that the issuance period will significantly shorten [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The central bank's interest rate stance is focused on stability, and past experiences indicate that phases of market concern over supply are often good opportunities for left-side trading [1]

Tax Policy Changes - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity, creating a "new and old distinction" in tax application[6] Reasons for Tax Resumption - The historical mission of the tax exemption policy has been completed, as the bond market has grown significantly, now ranking second globally[3] - The resumption aims to adjust the funding structure and prevent excessive liquidity from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds, thereby increasing fiscal revenue and alleviating fiscal pressure[4] Financial Impact - The short-term revenue from the resumption of VAT on interest income is estimated to be around 34 billion yuan[5] - The tax revenue is expected to increase further as the scale of new debt issuance expands over time[5] Market Implications - In the short term, the resumption of VAT is likely to push interest rates down and create pricing differences between new and old bonds[8] - Long-term effects may be bearish for interest-bearing bonds as the cost advantage diminishes, potentially shifting investment towards credit bonds and dividend assets[8] Market Trends - Since mid-July, bond market volatility has increased significantly, influenced by liquidity conditions and strong stock market performance[9] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.75%[9]