财通证券分析师孙彬彬报告称，截至12月30日，共有21个地区披露2026年1月地方债发行计划，规模合 计7712亿元，而这些地区在2025年1月计划发行规模为2846亿元。当前财政收支面临一定压力，稳增长 也存在紧迫性，且项目期限逐渐拉长，地方政府大概率不会因为二级市场利率波动而轻易推迟发债或缩 短发行期限。粗略对比，2026年一季度地方债发行期限有所下降，但考虑到样本有限且实际发行与计划 通常有出入，不能简单认为发行期限将显著缩短。央行对利率诉求是稳，过去经验显示市场担忧供给的 阶段都是做左侧的好时机。 ...

Tax Policy Changes - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity, creating a "new and old distinction" in tax application[6] Reasons for Tax Resumption - The historical mission of the tax exemption policy has been completed, as the bond market has grown significantly, now ranking second globally[3] - The resumption aims to adjust the funding structure and prevent excessive liquidity from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds, thereby increasing fiscal revenue and alleviating fiscal pressure[4] Financial Impact - The short-term revenue from the resumption of VAT on interest income is estimated to be around 34 billion yuan[5] - The tax revenue is expected to increase further as the scale of new debt issuance expands over time[5] Market Implications - In the short term, the resumption of VAT is likely to push interest rates down and create pricing differences between new and old bonds[8] - Long-term effects may be bearish for interest-bearing bonds as the cost advantage diminishes, potentially shifting investment towards credit bonds and dividend assets[8] Market Trends - Since mid-July, bond market volatility has increased significantly, influenced by liquidity conditions and strong stock market performance[9] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.75%[9]