【市场表现】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.04%报119.330元，10年期主力合约持平于108.555元，5年 期主力合约涨0.02%报105.775元，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.370元。银行间主要利率债收益率多数 下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行0.05bp，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行0.1bp， 10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率下行0.7bp，5年期国开债"25国开08"收益率下行0.75bp。 【资金面】 央行公告称，央行公告称，8月6日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1385亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作 利率1.40%，投标量1385亿元，中标量1385亿元。数据显示，当日3090亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单 日净回笼1705亿元。资金面方面，央行公开市场连续净回笼，依然无碍银行间市场资金面宽松局面，隔 夜回购利率微升但仍在1.31%低点附近徘徊。 【操作建议】 债券征税新规对市场扰动淡化，期债在资金面维持宽松的支撑下多数震荡收涨。目前预计8月上旬：一 是政治局会议落地，中美谈判结果也暂时落定，国内外政策利空出尽，二是月初资金面预期转松 ...

Tax Policy Changes - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity, creating a "new and old distinction" in tax application[6] Reasons for Tax Resumption - The historical mission of the tax exemption policy has been completed, as the bond market has grown significantly, now ranking second globally[3] - The resumption aims to adjust the funding structure and prevent excessive liquidity from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds, thereby increasing fiscal revenue and alleviating fiscal pressure[4] Financial Impact - The short-term revenue from the resumption of VAT on interest income is estimated to be around 34 billion yuan[5] - The tax revenue is expected to increase further as the scale of new debt issuance expands over time[5] Market Implications - In the short term, the resumption of VAT is likely to push interest rates down and create pricing differences between new and old bonds[8] - Long-term effects may be bearish for interest-bearing bonds as the cost advantage diminishes, potentially shifting investment towards credit bonds and dividend assets[8] Market Trends - Since mid-July, bond market volatility has increased significantly, influenced by liquidity conditions and strong stock market performance[9] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.75%[9]

Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy will impose VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity[1] Current Tax Rules - Public funds enjoy full tax exemptions on interest income and capital gains for government and local bonds[2] - Non-public asset management products are exempt from VAT on interest income but subject to 3% VAT and 25% income tax on capital gains[2] Fiscal Intent and Impact - The tax adjustment aims to alleviate fiscal pressure, as tax revenue has seen negative growth in 2020 (-2.3%), 2022 (-3.5%), and 2024 (-3.4%)[3] - In the first half of 2025, tax revenue was 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year[3] Affected Institutions - Banks will face a 6% VAT on interest income from government, local, and financial bonds[4] - Public funds may continue to enjoy tax exemptions, while non-public asset management institutions could see VAT on interest income return to 3%[4] Market Pricing Dynamics - The bond market may experience dual pricing for old and new bonds, with old bonds likely to see increased demand due to tax exemptions[6] - New bonds issued after August 8 may be priced based on similar existing bonds, with a potential markup of 1.05-1.06 times[6]