Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices continued to decline on Wednesday, affected by the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields, and then rebounded slightly after the release of weak US new home sales data. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the further decline of gold prices [3]. - The US economic fundamentals are mixed. The manufacturing and service industries in the US are developing differently in July, with manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations and service PMI exceeding expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was better than expected, while new home sales in June were lower than market expectations. The European Central Bank maintained the main interest rate at 2% as expected [6]. - In the long - term, gold is still bullish due to the risks in the tariff, geopolitical and monetary systems in 2025. However, the short - term market risk - on sentiment suppresses its upward momentum. For silver, it is expected to remain strong in the medium - to - long - term based on the bullish outlook for gold, and the current domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - China - EU relations are at a critical historical juncture, with more cooperation than competition. The EU is close to reaching a trade solution with the US, and has approved counter - tariff measures on $109 billion of US goods in case of negotiation breakdown [2]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged after eight consecutive interest rate cuts in a year, waiting for more clear signals on the EU - US trade relationship [2]. - The US economic data shows that in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), the number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was 217,000 (expected 226,000, previous 221,000), and new home sales in June were 627,000 (expected 650,000, previous 623,000) [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell to around $3,360 per ounce, mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the decline [3]. Outlook - Pay attention to US real - estate data, the Fed's interest - rate expectations and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price range is expected to be between $3,250 and $3,450 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the patterns of gold price fluctuations, emphasizing that while gold can outperform inflation in the long term, its price is subject to significant volatility, which can lead to substantial losses if investment timing is poor [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold Prices - In January 1980, the average gold price was $755 per ounce, followed by a 20-year bear market, with the price dropping to $280 per ounce by December 1999, a decline of 63% [3]. - In November 2011, the average gold price reached $1,771 per ounce, but a subsequent four-year bear market saw it fall to $1,062 per ounce by December 2015, a decrease of 40% [4]. - Historical examples illustrate that gold has experienced significant fluctuations in value over centuries, such as during the Song Dynasty in China, where gold's value relative to copper coins varied dramatically [4]. Group 2: Gold's Scarcity and Utility - Gold's scarcity is not a concern, as it is formed through extreme cosmic events, making its natural formation on Earth virtually impossible [5]. - The article outlines gold's historical role as a payment and wealth storage medium, highlighting its characteristics that make it preferable over other materials for wealth preservation [7]. - In modern times, gold primarily serves as a means of wealth storage, with 2024 gold consumption in China projected at 985 tons, primarily for jewelry and investment purposes [8]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Price Trends - Short-term gold price trends are influenced by three main factors: a declining US dollar index, lower interest rates, and heightened international tensions, all of which tend to drive gold prices up [17][19][22]. - Long-term trends indicate that gold prices rise when the risks associated with the currency system increase, particularly when the status of strong currencies is undermined [24]. - Historical analysis reveals three significant bull markets in gold since the end of the gold standard, each driven by factors that weakened the status of dominant currencies [25][27][30]. Group 4: Current Bull Market Dynamics - The current bull market in gold, which began in 2019, is primarily driven by concerns over the rapid growth of US debt, with the fiscal deficit rate surpassing 4% in 2019 and reaching 15.7% in 2020 [34]. - Additionally, the rise of China as a global power poses a challenge to the US dollar, contributing to the ongoing bullish sentiment in gold [36]. - The article concludes that gold remains an essential asset for wealth storage and risk diversification in the face of currency system uncertainties [14].