投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-25 避险情绪再降温，⾦价回调 ⾦价再回调，要受美元反弹和美债收益率回升的影响。 重点资讯： 1）欧建交50周年之际，中国领导人周四会见欧盟领导人时 指出，中欧关系又站在一个关键历史节点。中欧之间没有根 本利害冲突和地缘政治矛盾，合作大于竞争、共识多于分歧 的基本面和主基调没有变。 2）欧盟委员会周四表示，与美国达成协商贸易解决方案已 近在眼前。与此同时，欧盟成员国投票批准了对价值930亿 欧元（1090亿美元）美国商品的反制关税措施，以防谈判破 裂。 3）欧洲央行周四维持利率不变，此前该行在一年内已连续 降息八次。目前欧盟正与华盛顿就贸易协定展开谈判，可能 缓解持续存在的关税不确定性，欧洲央行因此选择暂时按兵 不动。 4）美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值 49.5，预期52.7，前值 52.9；美国标普全球服务业PMI初值 55.2，预期53，前值5 2.9。 宏观研究团队 研究员： 5）美国至7月19日当周初请失业金人数 21.7万人，预期22. 6万人，前值22.1万人。 6）美国6月新屋销售总数年化 62.7万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the patterns of gold price fluctuations, emphasizing that while gold can outperform inflation in the long term, its price is subject to significant volatility, which can lead to substantial losses if investment timing is poor [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold Prices - In January 1980, the average gold price was $755 per ounce, followed by a 20-year bear market, with the price dropping to $280 per ounce by December 1999, a decline of 63% [3]. - In November 2011, the average gold price reached $1,771 per ounce, but a subsequent four-year bear market saw it fall to $1,062 per ounce by December 2015, a decrease of 40% [4]. - Historical examples illustrate that gold has experienced significant fluctuations in value over centuries, such as during the Song Dynasty in China, where gold's value relative to copper coins varied dramatically [4]. Group 2: Gold's Scarcity and Utility - Gold's scarcity is not a concern, as it is formed through extreme cosmic events, making its natural formation on Earth virtually impossible [5]. - The article outlines gold's historical role as a payment and wealth storage medium, highlighting its characteristics that make it preferable over other materials for wealth preservation [7]. - In modern times, gold primarily serves as a means of wealth storage, with 2024 gold consumption in China projected at 985 tons, primarily for jewelry and investment purposes [8]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Price Trends - Short-term gold price trends are influenced by three main factors: a declining US dollar index, lower interest rates, and heightened international tensions, all of which tend to drive gold prices up [17][19][22]. - Long-term trends indicate that gold prices rise when the risks associated with the currency system increase, particularly when the status of strong currencies is undermined [24]. - Historical analysis reveals three significant bull markets in gold since the end of the gold standard, each driven by factors that weakened the status of dominant currencies [25][27][30]. Group 4: Current Bull Market Dynamics - The current bull market in gold, which began in 2019, is primarily driven by concerns over the rapid growth of US debt, with the fiscal deficit rate surpassing 4% in 2019 and reaching 15.7% in 2020 [34]. - Additionally, the rise of China as a global power poses a challenge to the US dollar, contributing to the ongoing bullish sentiment in gold [36]. - The article concludes that gold remains an essential asset for wealth storage and risk diversification in the face of currency system uncertainties [14].