Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices continued to decline on Wednesday, affected by the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields, and then rebounded slightly after the release of weak US new home sales data. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the further decline of gold prices [3]. - The US economic fundamentals are mixed. The manufacturing and service industries in the US are developing differently in July, with manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations and service PMI exceeding expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was better than expected, while new home sales in June were lower than market expectations. The European Central Bank maintained the main interest rate at 2% as expected [6]. - In the long - term, gold is still bullish due to the risks in the tariff, geopolitical and monetary systems in 2025. However, the short - term market risk - on sentiment suppresses its upward momentum. For silver, it is expected to remain strong in the medium - to - long - term based on the bullish outlook for gold, and the current domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - China - EU relations are at a critical historical juncture, with more cooperation than competition. The EU is close to reaching a trade solution with the US, and has approved counter - tariff measures on $109 billion of US goods in case of negotiation breakdown [2]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged after eight consecutive interest rate cuts in a year, waiting for more clear signals on the EU - US trade relationship [2]. - The US economic data shows that in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), the number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was 217,000 (expected 226,000, previous 221,000), and new home sales in June were 627,000 (expected 650,000, previous 623,000) [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell to around $3,360 per ounce, mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the decline [3]. Outlook - Pay attention to US real - estate data, the Fed's interest - rate expectations and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price range is expected to be between $3,250 and $3,450 [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-24 经贸前瞻改善，⾦价承压 中美开启新⼀轮经贸会谈，美⽇达成贸易协定，全球经贸前瞻改善，⾦价 承压。 重点资讯： 1）中美关税临时"休战"协议临近最后期限，双方即将展 开新一轮磋商。中国商务部周三公布，经中美双方商定， 国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行 经贸会谈。 2）美国总统特朗普与日本达成贸易协议，降低了日本汽车 进口关税，并免于对其他日本商品征收惩罚性新关税，作为 交换，日本承诺向美国提供5500亿美元的投资和贷款。 价格逻辑： 周三晚间，金价自3437美元/盎司回落，运行在月内高点下 方，因美国与日本达成贸易协议的乐观情绪削弱了市场对避 险资产的需求。特朗普宣布美日达成重大贸易协议，涵盖汽 车、大米等多个领域，并施加15%的对等关税，带动市场风 险偏好回暖，对金价构成压力。此外，中国商务部周三公 布，经中美双方商定，国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至3 0日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。 与此同时，美元自两周低点小幅反弹，也促使部分资金流出 黄金市场。尽管如此，金价的下行仍受到限制：美元指 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-23 美联储独⽴性、关税担忧升温，⾦价冲 ⾼ 美联储独⽴性及关税担忧共振推动贵⾦属上⾏。 重点资讯： 1）美国财政部长贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 周一表示，特朗 普政府更关心贸易协议的质量，而不是其时机。8 月 1 日 是各国与美国达成贸易协议的最后期限，否则将面临高额关 税。 2）中国6月银行结售汇连续两个月录得顺差，顺差规模并扩 大至254亿美元创九个月来最高，这主要得益于货物贸易结 售汇和证券投资结售汇顺差的双双支撑；近期中美贸易战维 持休战状态，中国外贸延续较好表现，有利于结售汇保持均 衡。 3）欧盟外交官表示，随着与华盛顿达成可接受的贸易协议 的前景日渐渺茫，欧盟正在探索对美国采取更广泛的反制措 施。 4）美国总统特朗普和中国方面讨论了今年晚些时候特朗普 访问亚洲期间两国元首可能举行会晤的事宜。 5）美国财长贝森特：没有任何迹象表明鲍威尔现在应该辞 职。如果他想提前离职，则应该这样做。 价格逻辑： 黄金价格在周二晚间突破3400美元/盎司，白银突破前高39. 06美元/盎司。贵金属突破主要归因于美 ...