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货币对冲成本
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美国就业报告公布前 货币对冲成本再次攀升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 09:51
Group 1 - The cost of hedging in the foreign exchange market has risen again after a summer lull, as traders prepare for potential volatility from the upcoming U.S. employment report [1] - The implied volatility of the euro against the dollar reached its highest level since June, indicating increased market sensitivity to employment data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy [1] - A significant drop in U.S. job vacancies to a 10-month low has heightened the focus on the employment report, with expectations that weak data could lead to greater market bets on a more aggressive easing policy from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The one-week volatility of the euro has surged to a two-month high, coinciding with the upcoming European Central Bank meeting and U.S. inflation data release [2] - An options indicator tracking the difference between implied and realized volatility has shown that contract premiums have reached their highest level since January [2]
美国8月非农出炉前货币对冲成本攀升 交易员备战汇市波动加剧
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 09:00
Group 1 - The cost of hedging in the currency market has risen again, with traders preparing for potential volatility ahead of the upcoming U.S. employment report [1] - The implied volatility of the euro against the dollar reached its highest level since June, indicating the significance of the non-farm payroll data for assessing the Federal Reserve's next steps [1] - A weak employment report could increase market expectations for a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a weaker dollar [1] Group 2 - The three-month relative hedging cost for the British pound has risen to its highest level since January, as traders brace for potential market fluctuations surrounding the upcoming budget announcement [3] - Concerns over global fiscal policy are creating a "perfect storm," driving up yields and weakening the pound [3] - The overall volatility measure for G10 currencies has reached a one-month high, influenced by various risk factors including fiscal concerns in the UK and political instability in France [3] Group 3 - The one-week implied volatility for the euro has surged to a two-month high, coinciding with the upcoming European Central Bank meeting and U.S. CPI data [3] - Although the European Central Bank is not expected to adjust policy at the next meeting, prior statements from policymakers have opened the door for potential rate hikes, making forward guidance crucial [3]
亚洲货币对冲成本 “跳水” 债券投资者该不该上车
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 06:42
Group 1 - The decline in currency hedging costs across Asia has sparked debate among bond investors about whether to secure their portfolios with cheap protection or to seize opportunities [1] - The implied yield of the USD/KRW three-month forward has dropped to around 1.7%, the lowest level in over two years, indicating a significant decrease in hedging costs for Korean bonds [1] - Similar indicators for Thailand, Indonesia, China, and India are also below their one-year averages, reflecting a broader trend in emerging Asian markets [1] Group 2 - Investors holding USD or EUR are increasingly inclined to invest in local currency fixed-income products with hedging capabilities in Asia [3] - The reduction in hedging costs and rising yields are favorable factors for Asian local currency government bonds, particularly in China and Thailand [3] - Central banks in Indonesia, India, Thailand, and South Korea have collectively cut benchmark interest rates by 175 basis points this year, while the US Federal Funds rate has remained unchanged [3]