货币政策路径分歧
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野村:美联储最新预测可能反映通胀在未来几个季度放缓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 06:52
格隆汇12月10日|野村资本管理公司在11月中旬之前的基准情景是,美联储不会在12月进行任何利率调 整。但首席投资官马修·帕莱在一份备忘录中表示,最新的数据指向通胀增速放缓以及劳动力市场疲软 的迹象,这使得再次降息成为可能。他说,新的经济预测应会反映出未来几个季度通胀将有所缓和,这 为再次降息打开了大门。帕莱表示:"尽管我们对近期美联储决策的看法发生了变化,但可以明确的 是,当前的委员会在如何处理货币政策路径方面,比他记忆中很长时间以来都更为分裂。" 来源:格隆汇APP ...
国际金价小幅下跌,分析师认为黄金价格可能很快见底
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-11-19 02:06
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in international precious metal futures, with COMEX gold futures down 0.17% to $4067.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.34% to $50.54 per ounce, attributed to reduced expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][4] - Analysts highlight that the Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman Jefferson emphasized a cautious approach as interest rates approach neutral levels, reflecting a divergence in monetary policy perspectives among Fed officials [1] - The expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased to 52.6%, down from 93.7% last month, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Despite recent declines, analysts believe that gold prices may soon reach a bottom, as future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are still anticipated, and central bank diversification in investments remains strong [1] - Investors typically view gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, with gold prices having risen over 50% this year, positioning it for its best annual performance since 1979 [4] - India's Ministry of Commerce reported that gold imports in October reached a record high of $14.72 billion, nearly tripling year-on-year, with cumulative gold imports for the fiscal year so far at $41.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.44% [4]