宏观量化经济指数周报 20260208 预计 2026 年 1 月贷款温和增长、社融小幅同 比多增 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 经济高频数据： 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪 或会好转》 2026-02-08 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2026 年 2 月 8 日，本周 ECI 供 给指数为 50.08%，较上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI 需求指数为 49.88%， 较上周回升 0.02 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.95%，较 上周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Bank reported a revenue of 17.76 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.49 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year, although growth rates have slowed compared to the first half of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank's net interest income increased by 8.2% year-on-year to 14.72 billion yuan, with the growth rate improving by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [1] - The bank's interest margin pressure has eased, contributing to the acceleration of net interest income growth, with the performance drag from interest margin at 5.6 percentage points, down from 6.4 percentage points in the first half of 2025 [1] - Non-interest income faced challenges, with net fee and commission income declining by 35.2% year-on-year to 380 million yuan, although the decline rate narrowed by 10.0 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Loan Growth and Asset Quality - The loan balance at the end of September 2025 reached 846.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, consistent with the 18.0% growth rate at the end of the first half of 2025 [2] - Corporate loans and bill discounts saw a net increase of 10.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025, driven by the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [2] - The non-performing loan ratio was 0.68% at the end of September 2025, slightly up by 2 basis points from the end of the first half of 2025, indicating stable asset quality [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The demand for infrastructure projects in the Chengdu-Chongqing region is strong, and Chengdu Bank is well-positioned to benefit from this, with expectations for continued high loan growth [2] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 13.66 billion yuan, 14.72 billion yuan, and 16.05 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 7.8%, and 9.0% respectively [2]