1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key policy focuses this week are to increase capital replenishment through multiple channels and continue to upgrade the rectification of "involution - style" competition [1][8][10] - Fiscal policy will emphasize investment in people, increase the proportion of public service expenditure and livelihood - related government investment [3][10] - Market supervision authorities will strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement, guide enterprise compliance, and support enterprises to expand international markets [10] - The central bank will improve the financial risk prevention and resolution system, dispose of financial risks, and strengthen capital replenishment [10][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Policy Weekly Observation 3.1.1 This Week's Policy Highlights - Focus on three main points: adjustment of fiscal policy and government investment structure, rectification of "involution - style" competition, and improvement of the financial risk prevention and resolution system [10] 3.1.2 Specific Policy Review - **Price Level**: On March 23, 2026, the state implemented temporary regulation on refined oil prices. After regulation, domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 1160 yuan and 1115 yuan per ton respectively [9] - **Fiscal Policy**: On March 23, 2026, Minister of Finance Lan Fuan emphasized that fiscal policy should focus on investment in people, increase the proportion of public service expenditure and livelihood - related government investment [3][9][10] - **Macro - economy**: On March 23, 2026, President Xi Jinping put forward requirements for the high - quality construction and development of Xiongan New Area [11] - **Diplomatic Policy**: There were multiple diplomatic events, including meetings and phone calls, and announcements about Trump's planned visit to China and China's counter - investigations against the US [11] - **Anti - involution Policy**: Market supervision authorities held relevant meetings to strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement and guide enterprise compliance [10][11] - **Geopolitical**: On March 25, 2026, COSCO Shipping resumed booking business to six Middle - East countries, with ships not passing through the Strait of Hormuz [11] - **Industrial Policy**: The State Council executive meeting focused on supporting the development of Xiongan New Area and the construction of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system [11] - **Financial Work**: On March 27, 2026, the central bank held a financial stability work meeting, aiming to improve the financial risk prevention and resolution system, dispose of risks, and increase capital replenishment [12]

Group 1: Financial Stability and Regulation - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for high standards and quality in financial stability work for 2026, integrating party building with business operations to ensure a robust financial risk prevention system [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to enhance the protection of small investors in the capital market, focusing on risk prevention, regulatory strength, and high-quality development [3] Group 2: Trade Relations and Investigations - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced the initiation of two trade barrier investigations against the United States, responding to U.S. actions perceived as harmful to global supply chains and trade in green products [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2%, while commodities like oil, gold, and silver saw price increases [11] - Upcoming PMI data for March is set to be released, and the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be fully canceled starting April 1, 2026, following a gradual reduction that began in late 2024 [12] Group 4: IPOs and Stock Market Developments - The CSRC approved IPO registrations for two companies, and three new stocks are set to be issued in the upcoming week [13] - A total of 32 companies will have their restricted shares released this week, amounting to 1.26 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 29.48 billion yuan [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated trade barrier investigations against the United States due to actions that disrupt global supply chains and hinder trade in green products, which may violate WTO rules and affect Chinese enterprises' trade interests [1][8]. Group 1: Investigation on Supply Chain Disruption - The investigation targets U.S. measures that severely disrupt global supply chains, including restrictions on Chinese products entering the U.S. market and limitations on high-tech exports to China [1]. - The investigation will utilize methods such as questionnaires, hearings, and on-site investigations to gather information from stakeholders [1][9]. - The investigation is expected to conclude within six months from the announcement date, with a possible extension of up to three months under special circumstances [2][10]. Group 2: Investigation on Green Product Trade Barriers - The investigation also addresses U.S. actions that obstruct trade in green products, including restrictions on exports of green products to the U.S. and limitations on technology cooperation related to green products [8]. - Similar to the previous investigation, this will also involve gathering information through various methods and is subject to the same timeline for completion [9][10]. - Stakeholders are invited to submit written comments regarding the investigation within 20 days of the announcement [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated two trade barrier investigations against the United States in response to actions that disrupt global supply chains and hinder trade in green products, asserting that these measures may violate WTO rules and harm Chinese enterprises' trade interests [1][6]. Group 1: Investigation on Global Supply Chain Disruption - The investigation targets U.S. practices that severely disrupt global supply chains, including restrictions on Chinese products entering the U.S. market and limitations on high-tech exports to China [1][6]. - The investigation will commence on March 27, 2026, and is expected to conclude within six months, with a possible extension of up to three months under special circumstances [2][4]. - Stakeholders can submit comments regarding the investigation within 20 days of the announcement, and the Ministry of Commerce will utilize various methods such as questionnaires and hearings to gather information [2][4]. Group 2: Investigation on Green Product Trade Barriers - The second investigation focuses on U.S. measures that obstruct trade in green products, including restrictions on exports of green products to the U.S. and limitations on technology cooperation related to green products [3][4]. - Similar to the first investigation, this inquiry will also start on March 27, 2026, and follow the same procedural guidelines for stakeholder engagement and information submission [4][5]. - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of defending China's legitimate rights and interests in light of these investigations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has initiated two trade barrier investigations against the United States in response to the U.S. launching Section 301 investigations based on "overcapacity" and "forced labor" allegations against China and other economies [1] Group 1: Trade Barrier Investigations - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office initiated a Section 301 investigation on March 12, citing "overcapacity" as the reason, targeting China and 15 other economies [1] - On March 13, another Section 301 investigation was launched by the U.S. against China and 59 other economies, claiming "ineffective prohibition of forced labor product imports" [1] - In response, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on March 27 that it would conduct two trade barrier investigations against the U.S. regarding its actions that disrupt global supply chains and hinder trade in green products [1] Group 2: Legal Framework and Next Steps - The investigations are based on the provisions of the "Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China" and the "Rules on Trade Barrier Investigations" [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will advance the investigations according to the relevant regulations and will take appropriate measures based on the findings to protect China's legitimate rights and interests [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an investigation into the trade barriers imposed by the United States, which are believed to severely disrupt the global supply chain and violate international trade agreements [1]. Group 1: Investigated Measures - The investigation focuses on the U.S. actions that disrupt the global supply chain, including restrictions on Chinese products entering the U.S. market, limitations on high-tech exports to China, and prohibitions on bilateral investments in key sectors [1]. Group 2: Investigation Procedure - The Ministry of Commerce will utilize methods such as questionnaires, hearings, and on-site investigations to gather information from stakeholders during the investigation [2]. Group 3: Investigation Timeline - The investigation is expected to conclude within six months from the announcement date, with a possible extension of up to three months under special circumstances [2]. Group 4: Public Information Access - Stakeholders can access public information related to the investigation through the Ministry of Commerce's website or by visiting the trade relief public information review room [2]. Group 5: Comments on the Case - Stakeholders have 20 days from the announcement date to submit written comments regarding the case to the Ministry of Commerce's trade relief investigation bureau [2]. Group 6: Information Submission and Confidentiality - Stakeholders must submit their comments and responses electronically via the designated platform and provide a written version that matches the electronic submission [3]. If stakeholders believe that their provided information could lead to serious adverse effects if disclosed, they can request confidential treatment [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower, with the ChiNext index down 0.42% [1] - As of the opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3852.88 points, down 0.01%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13394.79 points, down 0.38%; and the ChiNext Index was at 3222.19 points, down 0.42% [1] Economic Policies and Developments - Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence in maintaining stable economic development and creating opportunities for foreign enterprises, including those from the U.S. [2] - The People's Bank of China plans to support foreign institutions in engaging in bond repurchase activities in the Chinese bond market [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced an investigation into trade barriers against Mexico and initiated anti-dumping investigations on imports from Mexico and the U.S. [2] - The Ministry of Commerce added three U.S. companies to the unreliable entity list and placed three others under export control [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is conducting quality inspections on photovoltaic components and electric vehicles to prevent irrational competition [2] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Education and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued guidelines for the procurement and inspection of bulk food ingredients in school canteens [3] - The National Radio and Television Administration is drafting regulations for micro-short dramas to provide legal support for their development [3] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is accelerating research on the regulation of copper smelting capacity [3] - Xiaomi is optimizing vehicle delivery cycles, potentially reducing the time from order to delivery by up to two months for some models [3] - Public fund assets have surpassed 36 trillion yuan, marking a record high, with significant growth in stock and mixed funds [3] Corporate Announcements - Han Yu Pharmaceutical announced plans to raise up to 968 million yuan for the development of Semaglutide [4] - Ganfeng Lithium's subsidiary plans to raise up to 2.5 billion yuan through new investments [4] - Dazhihui announced a merger with Xiangcai Co., with share exchange prices set at 7.51 yuan and 9.53 yuan respectively [4] - The stock of Wanhua Chemical was suspended for review due to significant trading fluctuations [4] U.S. Market Impact - U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported heavy trucks starting October 1 [5] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is considering modernizing its interest rate target system [5] - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow down 0.38%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, and S&P 500 down 0.5% [5] Analyst Perspectives - Zhongyuan Securities noted a narrow fluctuation in the Shanghai Composite Index, with foreign investment maintaining confidence in Chinese assets [6] - Dongguan Securities highlighted a mixed performance in A-shares, with the ChiNext index showing strength and the market likely to remain in a volatile state [7]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated anti-dumping investigations against U.S. imported analog chips and highlighted discriminatory barriers against Chinese integrated circuits [1][3] - The timing of these announcements coincided with a planned meeting between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary, indicating a strategic response rather than a spontaneous action [3][5] - The import volume of U.S. analog chips to China surged by 37% from 2022 to 2024, while prices plummeted by 52%, with dumping margins from U.S. companies like Texas Instruments reaching 300%-450% [3][5] Group 2 - China's response is characterized as a counter-strategy to U.S. tactics of using low prices to undermine Chinese industries, signaling that negotiations can occur but must be free of unilateral sanctions [5][9] - The U.S. has added 13 Chinese companies to its "entity list," a tactic seen as a pressure tool to gain leverage in negotiations [7][9] - China publicly questioned the U.S. actions before the talks, indicating that such maneuvers could jeopardize the negotiations [9][11] Group 3 - China's approach is grounded in legal frameworks and international trade rules, asserting that U.S. practices violate World Trade Organization regulations [14][18] - The anti-dumping investigation is based on evidence that U.S. companies are selling chips at unreasonably low prices to eliminate local competition [16][18] - The U.S. has been accused of undermining free trade principles, while China positions itself as a defender of these rules [20][22] Group 4 - China's confidence in its negotiating position stems from its large market, growing industrial capabilities, and the wavering support of U.S. allies [23][26] - China is the largest buyer of chips globally, with over half of U.S. analog chip sales reliant on the Chinese market, making it a critical player for U.S. companies [23][25] - The shift in the global supply chain dynamics has reduced China's dependency on U.S. technology, with significant improvements in domestic production capabilities [28][30] Group 5 - The U.S. strategy of rallying allies against China is facing challenges, as countries like the EU and Japan are hesitant to sacrifice their economic ties with China [30][32] - China's recent actions signal a new baseline for negotiations, emphasizing equality and mutual respect, moving away from coercive tactics [32][34] - The expectation that the U.S. can intimidate China into concessions is no longer viable, indicating a shift in the balance of power in negotiations [34]