Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower, with the ChiNext index down 0.42% [1] - As of the opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3852.88 points, down 0.01%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13394.79 points, down 0.38%; and the ChiNext Index was at 3222.19 points, down 0.42% [1] Economic Policies and Developments - Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence in maintaining stable economic development and creating opportunities for foreign enterprises, including those from the U.S. [2] - The People's Bank of China plans to support foreign institutions in engaging in bond repurchase activities in the Chinese bond market [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced an investigation into trade barriers against Mexico and initiated anti-dumping investigations on imports from Mexico and the U.S. [2] - The Ministry of Commerce added three U.S. companies to the unreliable entity list and placed three others under export control [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is conducting quality inspections on photovoltaic components and electric vehicles to prevent irrational competition [2] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Education and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued guidelines for the procurement and inspection of bulk food ingredients in school canteens [3] - The National Radio and Television Administration is drafting regulations for micro-short dramas to provide legal support for their development [3] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is accelerating research on the regulation of copper smelting capacity [3] - Xiaomi is optimizing vehicle delivery cycles, potentially reducing the time from order to delivery by up to two months for some models [3] - Public fund assets have surpassed 36 trillion yuan, marking a record high, with significant growth in stock and mixed funds [3] Corporate Announcements - Han Yu Pharmaceutical announced plans to raise up to 968 million yuan for the development of Semaglutide [4] - Ganfeng Lithium's subsidiary plans to raise up to 2.5 billion yuan through new investments [4] - Dazhihui announced a merger with Xiangcai Co., with share exchange prices set at 7.51 yuan and 9.53 yuan respectively [4] - The stock of Wanhua Chemical was suspended for review due to significant trading fluctuations [4] U.S. Market Impact - U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported heavy trucks starting October 1 [5] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is considering modernizing its interest rate target system [5] - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow down 0.38%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, and S&P 500 down 0.5% [5] Analyst Perspectives - Zhongyuan Securities noted a narrow fluctuation in the Shanghai Composite Index, with foreign investment maintaining confidence in Chinese assets [6] - Dongguan Securities highlighted a mixed performance in A-shares, with the ChiNext index showing strength and the market likely to remain in a volatile state [7]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated anti-dumping investigations against U.S. imported analog chips and highlighted discriminatory barriers against Chinese integrated circuits [1][3] - The timing of these announcements coincided with a planned meeting between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary, indicating a strategic response rather than a spontaneous action [3][5] - The import volume of U.S. analog chips to China surged by 37% from 2022 to 2024, while prices plummeted by 52%, with dumping margins from U.S. companies like Texas Instruments reaching 300%-450% [3][5] Group 2 - China's response is characterized as a counter-strategy to U.S. tactics of using low prices to undermine Chinese industries, signaling that negotiations can occur but must be free of unilateral sanctions [5][9] - The U.S. has added 13 Chinese companies to its "entity list," a tactic seen as a pressure tool to gain leverage in negotiations [7][9] - China publicly questioned the U.S. actions before the talks, indicating that such maneuvers could jeopardize the negotiations [9][11] Group 3 - China's approach is grounded in legal frameworks and international trade rules, asserting that U.S. practices violate World Trade Organization regulations [14][18] - The anti-dumping investigation is based on evidence that U.S. companies are selling chips at unreasonably low prices to eliminate local competition [16][18] - The U.S. has been accused of undermining free trade principles, while China positions itself as a defender of these rules [20][22] Group 4 - China's confidence in its negotiating position stems from its large market, growing industrial capabilities, and the wavering support of U.S. allies [23][26] - China is the largest buyer of chips globally, with over half of U.S. analog chip sales reliant on the Chinese market, making it a critical player for U.S. companies [23][25] - The shift in the global supply chain dynamics has reduced China's dependency on U.S. technology, with significant improvements in domestic production capabilities [28][30] Group 5 - The U.S. strategy of rallying allies against China is facing challenges, as countries like the EU and Japan are hesitant to sacrifice their economic ties with China [30][32] - China's recent actions signal a new baseline for negotiations, emphasizing equality and mutual respect, moving away from coercive tactics [32][34] - The expectation that the U.S. can intimidate China into concessions is no longer viable, indicating a shift in the balance of power in negotiations [34]