Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - 豆粕: ★★★ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★★★ [1] - 菜粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜油: ★★★ [1] - 玉米: ★★★ [1] - 生猪: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policy. The short - term market trends are mostly in a state of shock, and long - term trends need to be judged based on different factors such as biodiesel development and policy intentions [2][3][4] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans continue to decline. Imported soybean auctions have all failed. US soybeans are weak due to favorable short - term weather and the market is waiting for the planting area report at the end of the month. There is little remaining domestic soybean at the grass - roots level, and the policy side is conducting auctions to supplement supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the guidance of the US soybean area report and weather conditions [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of June 24, about 12% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, showing improvement. In the next two weeks, the weather in most US soybean - growing areas is favorable for growth. Domestic spot prices have continued to fall by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills has increased. Five domestic large enterprises have jointly purchased 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal. The soybean meal market is currently in a state of shock. The US Department of Agriculture will release the planting area report at 00:00 on July 1 [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The soybean and palm oil futures are oscillating and waiting for the planting area report at the end of the month. In the short term, the domestic soybean market still faces a large arrival pressure, and the procurement volume in the fourth quarter is relatively low. In the long term, the development of biodiesel can support the vegetable oil market, so a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The near - and far - month contracts of rapeseed futures have mixed performance but are generally weak. Rainfall in Canadian rapeseed - growing areas has improved soil humidity. The old - crop rapeseed inventory is tight, and there are many uncertainties in new - crop weather. It is recommended to change the short - term strategy from bearish to wait - and - see [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to oscillate, with a divergence between futures and spot prices (spot is strong and futures are weak). The overall contradiction in the corn market is not significant. The expected increase in state - reserve auctions suppresses the increase in corn prices. North port inventories are decreasing, and south port inventories are slightly increasing. The operating rate of starch deep - processing enterprises may continue to decline. The corn futures market is expected to oscillate in the near future [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures are weakly adjusted with reduced positions, and spot prices have increased in various regions. In the medium term, due to the continuous increase in the inventory of breeding sows and the number of newborn piglets, the pressure on future hog slaughter is large, and the room for pig price rebound is limited. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize pig prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Egg futures contracts show different performances within the day, generally oscillating in the previously formed low - level range. Spot prices are stable. Since the number of chick replenishments from January to April this year was the highest in the same period in recent years, it is believed that the production capacity is still being released. The culling of old hens is insufficient, and the culling age is relatively high. The long - term egg price cycle has not bottomed out, and the strategy of shorting on rallies for futures prices continues [9]