机构：长江证券 研究员：于旭辉/魏杏梓 九兴控股：全球高端鞋履隐形冠军九兴控股为全球领先的高端鞋履制造商，为Nike、Prada、Balenciaga 等全球顶尖品牌提供以ODM 为主的制造服务。公司在2010-2018 年持续进行国内→东南亚的产能转 移，导致订单受限、利润波动，2019 年管理层关键换班开启新增长周期，聚焦高端化转型与东南亚产 能布局优化，利润率及资本回报率得到显著回升，2024 年公司实现营收111 亿元、归母净利润12 亿 元，规模体量位居国内制鞋二线梯队，但利润率处于行业较优水平。 行业：需求存结构性机会，供给格局长期向好 多元产能布局，生产效率领先。公司建立以国内为枢纽、东南亚为主要生产基地的制造体系，2024 年 中国/越南/亚洲其他地区产能占比分别为24%/52%/20%。员工生产熟练度领先同业，人均出货量业内仅 次于华利，且在持续推进自动化提升效率，构建了与全球化产能深度适配的本地化供应体系。反映至经 营层面，公司劳动力转化效率优，综合所得税率处于业内最低，人均创收、创利均显著领先同业。 投资：重启成长，估值有望抬升 需求端，目前美国服装行业位于去库尾声，运动板块多数品牌库存 ...

本次高争民爆收购海外民爆67%股权的交易，契合《"十四五"民用爆炸物品行业安全发展规划》的相关 政策导向。交易完成后，公司可将黑龙江地区过剩的炸药产能，有序转移至需求增量显著的西藏地区， 精准落实规划中"化解过剩产能、优化产业布局"的核心要求。同时，将为高争民爆新增炸药产能3.1万 吨/年（不含因拆线、撤点、减证等政策获得的奖励产能），产能增幅高达140.91%。此举不仅能大幅提 升高争民爆在西藏民爆市场的核心竞争力，更能显著增强对西藏重大项目民爆产品供应保障能力。通过 本次资源整合，高争民爆炸药产能规模将大幅增长，有效拓宽参与西藏地区未来发展的深度与广度，助 力公司收入规模与盈利水平的双重提升，进一步巩固并提高在西藏地区民爆行业的市场影响力。 格隆汇12月24日丨高争民爆(002827.SZ)公布，为深化产业结构布局，顺应民爆行业未来发展趋势及满 足区域市场需求，有效破解公司当前面临的产能瓶颈，经独立董事专门会议过半数审议通过并经公司 2025年12月24日召开的第四届董事会第十四次会议审议通过《关于与关联方共同收购黑龙江海外民爆器 材有限公司100%股权暨关联交易的议案》，同意高争民爆与控股股东控制的企业 ...

证券日报网讯12月22日，海泰科（301022）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，鉴于"年产15万吨高分 子新材料项目"安徽生产基地即将投产使用，公司考虑新材料业务整体发展规划，优化资源配置、集中 研发力量、提高决策和运营效率，计划在安徽生产基地投产后，将青岛生产基地3万吨产能转移至安徽 生产基地。关于新材料业务的业绩情况，敬请关注公司定期报告。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Canon's printer factory in Zhongshan has ceased operations due to a significant decline in the laser printer market and increasing competition from domestic brands in China [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Canon (Zhongshan) Office Equipment Co., Ltd. was established in June 2001 and is a major manufacturer of laser printers, having produced a cumulative total of 110 million units by April 2022 [3]. - The factory's industrial output value reached nearly 3.2 billion yuan in 2022, with a leased industrial area of 125,000 square meters [3]. - Employee numbers at the Zhongshan factory have decreased significantly, from 3,372 in 2022 to approximately 1,400 by September 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The laser printer market in China is experiencing a downturn, with IDC forecasting a 5% year-on-year decline in A4 laser printer shipments and a 10% decline for A3 laser printers in the first half of 2025 [2]. - Domestic brands have increased their market share in the A4 laser printer segment from 16% in 2010 to 42% in 2024, while Canon's market share in China is only 6.4% despite holding a 22.9% share globally [2]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Canon has shifted its strategic focus towards higher-margin businesses such as medical imaging and semiconductor equipment, leading to a reduction in production capacity for laser printers in Zhongshan [3]. - Some production capacity for printers has already been relocated to Canon's factories in Vietnam [3].

山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日发布《关于深圳证券交易所〈关于山东宏创铝 业控股股份有限公司发行股份购买资产申请的审核问询函〉之回复(修订稿)》，就深交所关注的标的资 产持续经营能力、产能转移方案、固定资产减值等问题进行了详细说明。公司表示，标的资产作为铝行 业龙头企业，电解铝及氧化铝市场空间广阔，产能转移符合国家政策导向，持续经营能力预计不会发生 重大不利变化。 标的资产行业地位稳固 市场空间广阔 公告显示，标的公司在电解铝和氧化铝领域均处于行业前列。截至2024年末，标的公司拥有电解铝产能 645.90万吨，占国内总产能的14.48%，排名行业第二；氧化铝产能1900万吨，占全国产能的18.21%，同 样位列行业第二。受益于汽车轻量化、新基建等下游需求增长，2024年中国电解铝消费量达4518万吨， 近五年年均复合增长率4.18%，氧化铝需求量约8500万吨，行业保持稳步增长态势。 从市场供需看，国内电解铝产能受政策严控，2024年建成产能4462万吨已接近4500万吨上限，预计未来 供需维持紧平衡。氧化铝方面，尽管2025年国内外新增产能陆续投产，但下游电解铝需求刚性，且国家 政策强 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 601.7 million USD and a net profit attributable to the parent of 27.9 million USD for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year decline of 1% and 16% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 195.7 million USD and 10.8 million USD, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5% and 27% respectively, with a negative shift in sales growth due to capacity transfer and tariff impacts [1] Financial Performance - Q3 manufacturing revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 143.4 million USD and 10.9 million USD, with year-on-year declines of 4.5% and 25.7% respectively [1] - By product category, revenue changes were as follows: outdoor sports shoes -3.54%, casual shoes +7.67%, and sandals/accessories -31.61% [1] - Capacity utilization, footwear shipment volume, and average price were reported at 92%, 6.3 million pairs, and 21.43 USD respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3 percentage points, -5.2%, and +3.38% [1] - Q3 manufacturing gross margin, operating net margin, and net margin attributable to the parent were 19.4%, 7.9%, and 7.6%, reflecting year-on-year declines of 1.2, 1.2, and 2.2 percentage points [1] Retail Performance - In Q3 2025, retail business revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 3.744 million USD and -0.17 million USD, with year-on-year declines of 6.4% and 342.86% respectively [2] - Physical store revenue decreased by 13% due to low foot traffic, with a 3.5% year-on-year decline in the number of direct-operated stores to 3,338 [2] - Overall channel revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, with online store revenue increasing by 8% and live streaming revenue more than doubling [2] - Q3 retail gross margin was 33.4%, down 11.3 percentage points year-on-year, while discounts remained stable [2] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a global leader in sports shoe manufacturing, benefiting from a strong market share among top sports brands and vertical integration to control the supply chain effectively [2] - The company exports 29% to the US, with production distribution in Indonesia (53%), Vietnam (32%), and mainland China (10%), allowing for coverage of tariff impacts through overseas capacity [2] - Short-term outlook indicates that while October manufacturing revenue remains negative, the worst period for the industry may have passed, with potential demand for replenishment ahead of major events like the Olympics [2] - Mid-term expectations suggest a recovery in orders driven by capacity expansion and price growth, with long-term potential for improved net margins compared to peers [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 8.218 billion, 8.547 billion, and 8.822 billion CNY, with net profit forecasts of 370 million, 410 million, and 450 million USD, corresponding to EPS of 0.23, 0.26, and 0.28 USD [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yuanyuan Group (00551) experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, reaching HKD 15.77 with a trading volume of HKD 50.66 million, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were USD 601.7 million and USD 27.9 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1% and 16% [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were USD 195.7 million and USD 10.8 million, showing a year-on-year decline of 5% and 27% [1] Operational Insights - The decline in performance is attributed to factors such as capacity transfer, ramp-up issues in Central Java leading to reduced capacity utilization, and tariff allocations [1] - In Q3, the capacity utilization rate, footwear shipment volume, and average price were 92%, 6.3 million pairs, and USD 21.43, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3 percentage points, -5.2%, and +3.38% [1] Market Dynamics - The decrease in shipment volume is primarily due to the transfer of production capacity overseas in response to tariffs, while price increases are driven by improvements in product mix [1] - The company exports 29% of its products to the U.S., with production distribution in Indonesia (53%), Vietnam (32%), and China (10%), indicating a strategic shift to cover capacity through overseas production [1] - The impact of tariffs is expected to affect end-consumer demand, thereby influencing order volumes, but the company is positioned to expand market share through increased overseas capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yuyuan Group (00551) experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, reaching HKD 15.77, with a trading volume of HKD 50.66 million. The company's performance for the first three quarters of 2025 showed a decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to capacity transfer and tariff impacts [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yuyuan Group reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 601.7 million and USD 27.9 million, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 1% and 16% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue and net profit of USD 195.7 million and USD 10.8 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5% and 27% [1]. Operational Insights - The decline in Q3 sales growth shifted from positive to negative, primarily due to reduced capacity utilization from capacity transfer and ramp-up issues in Central Java, along with tariff impacts [1]. - In Q3, the capacity utilization rate, footwear shipment volume, and average price were 92%, 6.3 million pairs, and USD 21.43, reflecting year-on-year changes of -3 percentage points, -5.2%, and +3.38%, respectively [1]. Market Dynamics - The company exports 29% of its products to the U.S., with production distribution in Indonesia (53%), Vietnam (32%), and China (10%). The capacity transfer to overseas locations is expected to mitigate the impact of tariffs on end-consumer demand and orders [1]. - Yuyuan Group is anticipated to expand its market share through increased overseas production capacity, despite the challenges posed by tariffs [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][6] Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters, with revenue at $601.7 million and net profit at $27.9 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1% and 16% respectively [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to capacity transfer, reduced utilization rates, and tariff impacts [2][3] - Despite a negative growth in manufacturing revenue, the worst period for the industry is believed to be over, with potential recovery driven by upcoming events such as the Olympics [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company's revenue and net profit were $195.7 million and $10.8 million, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 5% and 27% [2] - Manufacturing revenue and net profit for Q3 were $143.4 million and $10.9 million, with year-on-year changes of -4.5% and -25.7% [3] - The manufacturing gross margin for Q3 was 19.4%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, but showed improvement compared to the previous quarter [3] Retail Performance - Retail revenue for Q3 was $3.744 billion, with a net profit of -$0.017 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.4% and a significant drop in physical store revenue [4] - The number of direct-operated stores decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, closing 110 stores compared to the end of the previous year [4] Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leading global sports shoe manufacturer with a strong market share and vertical integration, allowing for effective control over the supply chain [5] - Short-term outlook suggests that while October manufacturing revenue remains negative, recovery is anticipated with potential inventory replenishment from brands [5] - Long-term projections indicate room for improvement in net profit margins compared to peers, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at $821.8 million, $854.7 million, and $882.2 million respectively [6]

Summary of Jianlin Home's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jianlin Home - **Industry**: Home furnishings and manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Revenue and Growth Targets - Jianlin Home anticipates a revenue target of **1.8 billion RMB** for 2026, with expectations to exceed this goal [2][3] - The company is considering leasing additional factory space to accelerate the construction of its own facilities and improve overall production efficiency [2] Impact of Factory Relocation - The relocation of production to Thailand has temporarily affected profit margins, with a reported decline in Q3 2025 due to increased inventory and workforce expansion [2][4] - However, the company expects a recovery in profit margins in Q4 2025, as personnel and warehousing are adequately prepared [5] Pricing Strategy - To counteract the impact of tariffs, Jianlin Home has implemented a **15% price increase** on products shipped from Thailand, ensuring stable revenue and order levels [2][6] Manufacturing Cost Comparison - Manufacturing costs at the Thailand facility are comparable to domestic costs, with some categories being more favorable due to advanced processes and newer equipment [7] Mexico Factory Development - The Mexico factory has completed its first inspection and has begun small-scale trial production, focusing on plastic products to enhance supply chain competitiveness [8] - The initial goal for the Mexico operation is to break even, with plans to evaluate fixed asset investments after six months to a year of operation [9] Order Trends and Market Stability - Orders from the U.S. and Europe for Q4 are stable and in line with expectations, indicating strong overall industry stability without significant fluctuations [10] Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The company is working towards achieving its annual employee stock ownership plan goals, with specific Q4 performance details pending until the financial report is released [11] Raw Material Procurement - Raw material procurement is primarily reliant on existing suppliers, with efforts to localize sourcing in Thailand to optimize gross margins and cost structures [12] Capacity Utilization and Market Expansion - Domestic capacity previously allocated for U.S. orders will be released, with resources redirected towards the European market and exploration of emerging markets in the Middle East and Africa [13] - The company aims to leverage cost advantages and high-quality products to penetrate these new markets [14] Cross-Border E-commerce Strategy - Jianlin Home's cross-border e-commerce strategy focuses on the North American Amazon platform, targeting **100 million RMB** in revenue for 2025, with expectations for rapid growth in the following year [16] Domestic Real Estate Procurement Trends - The domestic real estate procurement scale remains stable at approximately **50 million RMB**, with a focus on refined management and collaboration with state-owned enterprises [17] Hardware Production in Thailand - The hardware production at the Thailand facility has matured, with ongoing product iteration and metal process development, aiming to cultivate a complete customer base [18]