资产定价理论
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波动最小化,收益“+”起来,两位低波“固收+”舵手的平衡术
点拾投资· 2025-11-06 11:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategies and insights shared by industry experts on how to achieve better returns in a low-volatility environment through "fixed income plus" strategies, emphasizing risk management and disciplined investment approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Strict Control of Drawdown - Two main paths for strict drawdown control are identified: model-based constraints and refined security selection [4]. - The investment framework includes a unified approach across different product types, utilizing a target volatility model and a maximum drawdown control model to manage risk [5][6]. - For low-volatility products, a drawdown target of 2% is considered low, while a range of 2%-4% is aimed for open-end products [6][7]. Group 2: Avoiding "Fixed Income Minus" Risks - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a clear risk-return profile to prevent "fixed income minus" scenarios, especially during market upswings [10][11]. - A disciplined position design is crucial, with a focus on maintaining a maximum stock allocation of 12% and the possibility of reducing stock positions to zero when valuations are too high [13][14]. - Daily liquidity and risk management mechanisms are highlighted, including strict evaluation of risk-reward ratios for individual securities [14]. Group 3: Methodological Origins - The investment framework is rooted in asset pricing theory, focusing on managing volatility and diversifying risk rather than relying solely on macro timing [15][16]. - A three-layer system for portfolio construction is proposed, which includes style structure, industry allocation, and individual security selection [18][19][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook in a Low-Interest Rate Environment - The article notes that as interest rates decline, the investment logic for "fixed income plus" products must evolve, with a potential long-term return of 2%-2.5% expected from bonds [23][24]. - The shift towards equity over bonds is suggested as a strategy to achieve higher returns in a low-yield environment, with a focus on sectors like technology and cyclical finance [25][26]. - The importance of balanced allocation and diversification is emphasized, particularly in the context of emerging industries such as AI and robotics [27].
长城基金杨光:挑战传统资产配置方法的新思路
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 01:16
Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of asset pricing theories and the need for a new approach to asset allocation that goes beyond traditional models, emphasizing the importance of risk-adjusted returns and dynamic risk management [2][10][25] Group 1: Traditional Asset Pricing Theories - Traditional asset pricing theories, such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), are based on strict assumptions like market efficiency and rational investors, which fail to explain market anomalies like momentum and value effects [2][4] - The limitations of these traditional theories were highlighted during financial crises, revealing their inadequacies in tail risk management [2][4] Group 2: New Asset Allocation Approach - The new approach focuses on systematically and proactively enhancing the risk-adjusted returns of investment portfolios rather than merely seeking absolute returns [2][4] - This shift represents a comprehensive innovation in philosophy and methodology, aiming for long-term and stable risk-return profiles within clearly defined risk budgets [2][4] Group 3: Dynamic Correlation and Risk Management - The article emphasizes that asset correlations are dynamic and can change with market conditions, making fixed historical correlation-based frameworks risky during crises [7][10] - Understanding the underlying logic of correlation changes is crucial, as traditional low-correlation "free lunch" strategies may diminish in effectiveness during market turmoil [10][12] Group 4: Investment Framework and Strategies - The investment framework proposed by the company is a three-dimensional model that incorporates technological advancements, new productivity measures, and narrative-driven investing [13][20] - The investment process is modularized into pre-investment, during-investment, and post-investment phases, each with specific goals and quantifiable standards to ensure systematic and disciplined operations [14][15] Group 5: Multi-Asset Investment Strategy - The newly launched multi-asset fund aims to provide a robust alternative to traditional fixed-income products by incorporating low-correlation assets like A-shares, U.S. stocks, gold, and bonds [16][18] - Statistical analysis shows that the probability of all four asset classes declining simultaneously is only 1.61%, indicating the effectiveness of low-correlation diversification [16] Group 6: Future of Asset Pricing - The future of asset pricing is seen as a transition from historical data reliance to a focus on understanding technological trends, industry changes, and collective human behavior [25] - The article concludes that continuous questioning and reflection on traditional beliefs are essential for adapting to new paradigms in asset pricing and investment strategies [25]