Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of decreasing deposit interest rates among domestic small and medium-sized banks is a response to the actions of major state-owned banks, aimed at improving profitability and enhancing the ability to withstand systemic risks [1][5]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - In August 2023, several domestic small and medium-sized banks announced reductions in deposit interest rates, following similar moves by the six major state-owned banks [1]. - From 2024, deposit rates are expected to enter a downward trend, with the three-year fixed deposit rate dropping from 3.05% to 1.55%, representing a nearly 50% decrease over two years [5]. - The average annual interest income from a 100,000 yuan deposit over three years has decreased from 3,050 yuan to 1,550 yuan, a reduction of 1,500 yuan [5]. Group 2: Recommendations for Depositors - Depositors are advised to consider several strategies in response to declining interest rates, such as opting for three-year large-denomination certificates of deposit to lock in rates [6]. - It is suggested that depositors diversify their holdings by placing funds in joint-stock banks or city commercial banks, which typically offer higher rates than state-owned banks [6]. - Other investment options include structured deposits, R1-rated bank wealth management products, government bonds, and bond funds, which are considered low-risk alternatives [6]. Group 3: Emergency Fund Preparation - Depositors should maintain an emergency fund due to the low liquidity of fixed deposits, with 67.3% of fixed deposit customers having withdrawn funds early for emergencies [9]. - The current interest rate for demand deposits is only 0.05%, leading to significant potential losses if fixed deposits are withdrawn prematurely [9]. - Strategies such as the "ladder deposit method" and purchasing large-denomination certificates of deposit with transferability features are recommended to ensure liquidity [9]. Group 4: Risks of Small and Medium-Sized Banks - The risk of deposit loss is increasing as more small and medium-sized banks face bankruptcy, with 105 banks approved for dissolution in 2024 [11]. - Depositors are advised to spread their funds across multiple banks, keeping deposits below 500,000 yuan per bank to ensure full insurance coverage [11]. - It is recommended to prioritize deposits in state-owned or joint-stock banks to minimize the risk of bank failure [11]. Group 5: Market Opportunities - There are significant bubbles in both the stock and real estate markets, with high price-to-income ratios indicating potential for future corrections [14]. - Depositors are encouraged to prepare for investment opportunities in the stock and real estate markets when prices reach historical lows [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the enthusiasm for savings among the public is increasing due to economic uncertainties and rising investment risks, leading to a significant increase in household deposits [1] - In the first half of 2025, household deposits increased by 10.77 trillion yuan, averaging 1.79 trillion yuan in new deposits each month [1] - The continuous decline in deposit interest rates is expected, with the three-year deposit rate dropping from 3.05% to 1.55%, resulting in a decrease of 1,500 yuan in annual interest for a 100,000 yuan deposit [5] Group 2 - The reasons for the decline in deposit interest rates include the central bank's intention to encourage spending and investment, the synchronization of loan interest rate reductions, and the expansion of the interest rate spread for banks [5] - Investors are advised to adopt a laddered deposit strategy to balance interest income and liquidity, while aggressive investors should diversify their investments across various low-risk and higher-risk assets [8] - The increasing number of bankruptcies and dissolutions among small and medium-sized banks, with 195 banks announcing dissolution in 2024, raises concerns about the stability of these institutions [10] Group 3 - The real estate market is facing significant bubbles, with price-to-income ratios in first-tier cities reaching 40, indicating a potential correction in housing prices [12] - The stock market is also at risk of valuation corrections, with new stock issuance maintaining high price-to-earnings ratios, leading to potential declines in stock prices [12][13] - Investors with fixed-term deposits should prepare for the possibility of asset bubbles bursting in both real estate and stock markets [13]