市场普遍预期将再降 25 个基点，但美联储内部分歧激烈，12 名投票委员中半数倾向按兵不动，若出现 3 张以上反对票将创下 2019 年以来首次先例。鲍威尔顶着任期收官与白宫政治压力，需在鸽派表态安 抚市场与防控通胀间精准平衡。 美联储利率决议进入小时级倒计时，全球市场陷入屏息等待。 港股则陷萎靡，四季度回调后依托内地经济韧性与 7.75 倍低市盈率的估值优势，等待流动性宽松信 号。 点击速看详情：，更暗藏 2026 年资产重配的关键密码。 资产表现分化显著：黄金徘徊 4200 美元关口，央行年购金超 1000 吨提供支撑，突破阻力位将剑指历史 新高；白银飙至 61 美元历史峰值，光伏需求激增催生供需缺口，补涨行情持续发酵。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market in 2025 is experiencing a historic rally, with London spot gold surpassing $4,160 per ounce, marking a 51% increase year-to-date, the best annual performance since 1979 [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also surged, with brands like Chow Tai Fook seeing prices rise to 1,168 RMB per gram, an increase of 45 RMB since the end of September, reflecting a nearly 50% cumulative increase post-National Day holiday [1] Group 2: Consumer Demographics - Young consumers aged 18-24 have become the main drivers of gold consumption, with ownership rates rising from 37% five years ago to 62% today, indicating a significant shift in purchasing behavior [3] - The purchasing logic of this demographic includes lightweight consumption, aesthetic appeal, and a dual mindset of consumption as savings, with young consumers viewing gold as both a personal investment and a gift [4][10] Group 3: Investment Behavior - The behavior of older consumers, often referred to as "Chinese aunties," has shifted from impulsive buying to more rational investment strategies, with a 40% increase in investment gold bar sales while traditional jewelry sales have weakened [6] - The underlying logic for the current gold price increase is attributed to a crisis of trust in the U.S. dollar, with central banks in Asia accelerating gold purchases to reduce reliance on the dollar [6][7] Group 4: Economic Drivers - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a significant catalyst for gold's appeal, as it offers protection against inflation and a weakening dollar, prompting both institutions and individuals to adjust their asset allocations [7] - In the domestic market, gold priced in RMB has seen a 46% increase this year, serving as a hedge against currency fluctuations and an alternative to declining bank investment yields [7] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The current market shows signs of irrational behavior, with institutions adjusting their price targets dramatically, indicating potential misjudgments about the market's direction [11] - The demand shift is driving industry upgrades, with brands like Chow Tai Fook leveraging IP collaborations and advanced technologies to enhance product value, resulting in a 6.3 percentage point increase in gross margins for companies like Luk Fook [12] Group 6: Future Outlook - The gold price surpassing $4,000 reflects a generational and global asset reallocation, with young consumers redefining gold's consumption attributes while older consumers focus on investment gold bars [14] - The market's transition from a safe-haven asset to a speculative target raises concerns about volatility, emphasizing the importance of understanding the motivations behind gold purchases in an era of fluctuating credit systems [14]