Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The liquidity indicators show that the M1 and M2 growth rate difference narrowed to -3.2 percentage points in July, marking a 49-month high [1][11] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline, with key enterprises' average daily crude steel output hitting a year-to-date low in late July [2][20] - The profitability of titanium dioxide and flat glass remains low, with significant negative margins reported [70] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.2 percentage points in July, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [1][17] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for July was 46.09, down 6.16% month-on-month [1][17] - The London gold spot price decreased by 1.86% compared to the previous week [1] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel output reached a year-to-date low in late July [2][38] - The national real estate new construction area from January to July 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 19.40% [20] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.37% this week, with a cement profit of 29 yuan/ton [56] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a current rate of 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices increasing by 1.24%, 0.69%, and 0.24% respectively [2] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July was 47.10%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1193.34 points, down 0.62% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.37%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +5.31% [4] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, following regulatory support for the industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and risks. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July 2025, down 6.16% from the previous month [4] - The London gold spot price increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI new orders index reached a 9-month high in July [5] - Weekly price changes included rebar down 2.90%, cement price index down 1.37%, rubber down 2.33%, coke up 3.94%, coking coal up 0.98%, and iron ore down 2.55% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates changed by -0.57 percentage points, +0.20 percentage points, +3.0 percentage points, and -3.94 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and flat glass prices changed by -0.77% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1409 CNY/ton [6] - The flat glass operating rate was 75% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for July was 49.40%, down 0.8 percentage points [7] - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled down 0.19%, copper down 1.43%, and aluminum down 1.49%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +12.77%, -18.19%, and -10.26% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices reached a new high since 2011 [8] - Graphite electrode price was 18,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1357.4 CNY/ton, down 10.61% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price was 20,490 CNY/ton, down 1.49%, with estimated profit at 2926 CNY/ton (excluding tax), down 10.26% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.27 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 80 CNY/ton [9] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 390 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 was 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [10] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points this week, down 2.30% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.40%, up 0.40 percentage points [10] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.75%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles at -0.51% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 index was 46.36% and 64.79% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 index is 0.57, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery potential in the steel sector's profitability, driven by regulatory support for the industry and a gradual exit of outdated production capacity [4]. - The July PMI new export orders for China stood at 47.10%, indicating a slight decline, while the steel PMI new orders index reached a nine-month high [3][39]. - The liquidity indicators show a negative growth rate difference between M1 and M2, which may impact market dynamics [10][18]. Liquidity Analysis - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [10][18]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for July 2025 was 46.09, down 6.16% from the previous month [10][18]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI new orders index in July reached 51.9%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.3 percentage points [39]. - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.24%, down 0.57 percentage points from the previous week [39]. Industrial Products Chain - The July PMI new orders index for industrial products was 49.40%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices declining by 0.19%, 1.43%, and 1.49% respectively [2]. Subsector Performance - The price of tungsten concentrate reached a new high since 2011, while graphite electrode prices remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton [2]. - The average profit for electrolytic aluminum was 2,926 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 10.26% month-on-month [2]. Price Comparison - The price ratio between medium-thick plates and rebar is at a relatively high level, with the rebar price at 3,350 CNY/ton, down 2.90% [3][39]. - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 150 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3]. Export Chain - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1,232.29 points, down 2.30% from the previous week [3]. - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.40%, an increase of 0.40 percentage points [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. - The overall steel industry gross profit was reported at 305 CNY/ton, down 18.6% week-on-week [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various industries, focusing on liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, pricing relationships, export chains, and valuation metrics, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the market. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high for the year, with weekly price changes showing rebar up by 5.50%, cement price index down by 2.05%, rubber up by 3.09%, coke up by 8.55%, coking coal up by 6.60%, and iron ore up by 0.64% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires decreased by 0.08 percentage points, 6.80 percentage points, 1.8 percentage points, and 0.08 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by -0.38% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1350 yuan/ton; flat glass operating rate was 75% [5] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum increasing by 6.42%, 1.05%, and 0.19% respectively, with corresponding profit changes of +107.38%, -18.19%, and -1.86% [6] - The national operating rate for semi-steel tires was 75.87%, down by 0.12 percentage points [6] - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20% [6] Subcategory Products - Prices for graphite electrodes were 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 1357.4 yuan/ton, down by 15.09% [7] - Electrolytic aluminum price was 20,800 yuan/ton, up by 0.19%, with estimated profit at 3260 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down by 1.86% [7] - Electrolytic copper price was 79,580 yuan/ton, up by 1.05% [7] Pricing Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.37 this week; the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar was 100 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 370 yuan/ton, up by 10 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) was 150 yuan/ton, down by 6.25% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, up by 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1261.35 points, down by 3.24% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.00%, down by 0.70 percentage points [9] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.69%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being cement manufacturing, which rose by 13.13% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.57, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4][5] - The report notes significant fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly in coking coal, and suggests monitoring the risks associated with futures price volatility [4] Liquidity Analysis - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, indicating a potential impact on market liquidity [11][20] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.07% [11][20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high for the year, increasing by 5.50% to 3450 CNY/ton [9][41] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.81%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points [41] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was reported at 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel prices increasing by 6.42% [2] Subsector Performance - The prices of main coking coal and iron ore reached four-month highs, with coking coal prices at 1227 CNY/ton, up 6.6% [9][2] - The report indicates that the profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are currently low, with flat glass margins at -58 CNY/ton [78][80] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [9][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.69%, with the best-performing sector being cement manufacturing, which rose by 13.13% [9] Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China were at 47.70% in June 2025, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [3][9] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was reported at 1261.35 points, down 3.24% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides insights into various economic indicators and industry performance metrics, highlighting trends in liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export orders, which may present investment opportunities and risks in the market. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 1.89%, cement price index down by 1.57%, and iron ore up by 2.47% [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by -1.49% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1268 yuan/ton [5] Industrial Products Chain - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 72.92%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.51 percentage points [6] - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum reached a new high since 2012 [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, with a calculated profit of 3,331 yuan/ton (excluding tax), reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.84% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.24 this week, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 110 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) was 140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,313.70 points, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.18% [9] Valuation Percentiles - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.82%, with the real estate sector showing the best performance at +6.12% [10] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Core Insights - Emerson Electric Co. reported a strong quarter with underlying sales up 2%, driven primarily by process markets [5] - The company experienced a 4% increase in orders, with process orders rising by 6% [5] - Key geographic markets showing strength include North America, the Middle East, India, and the rest of Asia [5] Demand Trends - Demand has been resilient despite elevated uncertainty, attributed to robust capital cycles in process markets [5] - The discrete market showed recovery with a 3% increase, while Test & Measurement (T&M) saw an 8% rise [5] - The strength in demand is particularly noted in select markets such as LNG, where the capital cycle remains strong [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The national steel PMI new orders index for April reached 51%, marking a 9.9 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a recovery in demand [1][42]. - The financing environment index for small and medium enterprises in April 2025 was 48.03, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 7.24%, suggesting tightening liquidity conditions [11][19]. - The report highlights that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to regulatory changes and improved demand dynamics [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprises financing environment index for April 2025 is 48.03, down 7.24% month-on-month [11]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.4 percentage points in March 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points [19]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national steel PMI new orders index for April was 51%, up 9.9 percentage points from the previous month [1][42]. - The average capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 92% in the latest week, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase [42]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72.43%, down 5.68 percentage points from the previous week [2]. - The prices of major commodities showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel prices increasing by 0.26% [2]. Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate reached a nearly 10-month high, indicating strong demand in niche markets [2]. - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, reflecting an 8.25% increase [2]. Price Relationships - The price spread between hot-rolled and rebar steel is at a low level not seen in the past five months, indicating potential pricing pressures [3]. - The new export orders PMI for China in April was 44.70%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting weakening export demand [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.52, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.43% in the latest week, while the steel sector showed a slight increase of 0.13% [4].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into price movements, production levels, and economic indicators. Group 1: Liquidity - The London gold spot price decreased by 2.66% week-on-week [2] - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for February 2025 is at 46.65, down 0.86% from the previous month [2] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.6 percentage points in January 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In mid-February, the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises reached a six-month high of 2.13 million tons [3] - Price changes for key materials include rebar down 2.65%, cement price index down 0.01%, rubber down 1.73%, coke down 3.60%, coking coal down 1.64%, and iron ore down 3.59% [3] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 0.17 percentage points, while the cement and asphalt operating rates changed by +1.00 percentage points and -2.3 percentage points, respectively [3] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by +1.38% and -0.74% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at 36 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -1015 yuan/ton [4] - The operating rate for flat glass this week remained stable at 76.09% [4] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for February is at 51.10%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points month-on-month [5] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel up 0.06%, copper down 0.80%, and aluminum down 1.01% [5] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 82.51%, up 2.16 percentage points [5] Group 5: Subcategories - Iron ore prices have retreated from a seven-month high [6] - The price of graphite electrodes is stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, while electrolytic aluminum is at 20,620 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [6] - The price of tungsten concentrate is at 142,500 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from last week [6] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.03 this week [7] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 170 yuan/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [7] - The price difference between盘螺 (mainly used in real estate) and rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 290 yuan/ton, up 11.54% from last week [7] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in February 2025 is at 48.60%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1250.65 points, down 5.16% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 74.50%, down 0.50 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 2.22%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which increased by 5.34% [10] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB is 38.89% and 58.02%, respectively [10] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]