【华西证券：2026年牛市基础扎实，春季躁动已提前演绎】1月6日，华西证券指出，2026年是多因素叠 加的"大年"，牛市基础依旧扎实，且春季躁动行情已提前开启。 从宏观政策周期看，作为十五五开局 之年，2026年多部门密集出台配套产业政策与投资规划，财政货币政策协同发力，营造了友好的流动性 环境。 资金层面，12月股票型ETF等机构资金提前布局，后续保险资金"开门红"，叠加汇率升值引外资 回流，增量资金入市将强化春季行情。 基本面预期与产业周期方面，PPI降幅收窄，预计2026年企业盈 利温和复苏，对盈利拐点的博弈将支撑行情。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 For hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global debt issue will present three main solutions: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1] Group 1: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures despite ongoing weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI [1] - The net asset return on equity (ROE) for non-financial enterprises in the A-share market has stabilized over several quarters, with profits from eight advanced manufacturing industries now accounting for 38% of total profits [1] - Companies with overseas operations have seen their overseas revenue share increase to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points, which may drive a rebound in overall A-share ROE after stabilization [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Investment focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear prosperity trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and limited short-term supply release [1] - Other sectors to consider include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1] - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1]