Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that since mid-August, the marginal contraction of the funding environment has led to an increase in bond market interest rates, influenced by strong stock market performance and rising demands for exchange rate stability [1][2][3] - The funding environment has contracted due to several factors, including strong stock market performance causing a shift of household deposits into the stock market, which disrupts liquidity [6][10] - The demand for exchange rate stability has increased, leading to tighter funding conditions as maintaining higher funding and short-term interest rates helps alleviate pressure on the RMB exchange rate [7][10] Group 2 - As of August 22, the DR001 rate has risen to 1.41%, indicating a tightening of the funding environment despite the central bank's liquidity injections remaining unchanged [2][3] - The net funding outflow from major banks has decreased to 3.88 trillion yuan as of August 21, down by 0.95 trillion yuan from the previous week, reflecting the impact of the funding contraction [10] - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report maintains a loose monetary policy stance but emphasizes the need to prevent "funds from being diverted," indicating increased uncertainty in the funding environment [10][13] Group 3 - The bond market faces uncertainty regarding funding rates, with limited marginal easing, making it difficult to drive bond market interest rates down [13] - The strong sentiment in the stock market and the clear "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds indicate rising risk appetite, which suppresses bond market performance [13] - The previous deflation expectations have been corrected, and the insufficient recovery of interest rates suggests that a stable outlook for the bond market is not yet in sight, requiring further waiting for buying opportunities [13]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人| 贾东旭 摘要 事件：6月13日，央行公布2025年5月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下行0.1个百分点至7.1%，社融存量同比持平于至8.7%，M2同比下行0.1个百 分点至7.9% 。 增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 常规跟踪：M1同比回暖。 5月新增信贷6200亿，同比少增3300亿，拖累仍主要源于企业中长贷。 居民部门贷款新增540亿，同比少增217亿，其中短贷减少208亿，同比多 减451亿，中长贷新增746亿，同比多增232亿。企业部门方面，票据融资新增746亿，同比少增2826亿，短期贷款新增1100亿，同比增加2300 亿。非银贷款新增589亿，同比多增226亿。 5月新增社融22871亿，同比多增2248亿，主要源于政府债券。 人民币贷款新增5960亿，同比少增2237亿。政府债券新增14633亿，同比多增 2367亿。企业债券新增1496亿，同比多增1211亿。委托贷款减少167亿，同比多减158亿，信托贷款新增173亿，同比少增51亿，未贴现汇票减少 1162亿，同比少减169亿。 5月M2同比下行0.1个百分点至7. ...