Group 1 - The recent liquidity pressure in the market is attributed to tax payment periods, with DR001 rising above 1.50%, an increase of approximately 20 basis points over three trading days [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a significant reverse repurchase operation, injecting 580.3 billion yuan into the market, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan on the day [1][2] - Analysts expect that after the tax payment period ends, liquidity rates may return to the stable and loose levels seen in early August [2][5] Group 2 - The liquidity sentiment index from Minsheng Bank has risen, reaching 57.2, indicating a tightening market condition, while the CNEX market liquidity sentiment index has surpassed 60 [2][4] - The PBOC's continuous net injections signal a supportive monetary policy, especially given the limited tax payment scale in August [4][5] - If the PBOC maintains a net injection of 300-400 billion yuan post-tax period, bond market yields may stabilize or slightly decline [5]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 150.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 150.5 billion yuan and a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan for the day [1][3] - The overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) rose nearly 20 basis points to around 1.37% [3] - The yield on one-year interbank certificates of deposit remained stable at approximately 1.63% [6] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The yields on medium to short-term bonds in the interbank market increased significantly, while the yields on 10-year government bonds and active policy bank bonds rose by less than 1 basis point [8] - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.21%, the 10-year down 0.11%, the 5-year down 0.09%, and the 2-year down 0.03% [10] Group 3: Economic Developments - The Chinese government is implementing a free trade policy in Hainan, characterized by "one line open, one line controlled, and free flow within the island" [11] - A large-scale investment initiative in Germany aims to invest 631 billion euros by 2028 to boost the economy and enhance competitiveness, involving 61 companies including Siemens and Deutsche Bank [13]

资金代表债券的需求，钱多自然需求大，钱少自然需求少 。但它也有静态和动态之分，静态的资金面 是当时的资金松紧程度，而动态的资金面是资金面的松紧预期。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250623— 50年国债卷起来（+周末中东局势升级-股市低开高走-资金面略微收敛=微上)】 资金面略微收敛，长债收益率微幅上行。 -------------------------- 今日媒体报道称："机构卷收益，20年、50年国债被挖出，收益率近一周双双下行5BP。" 看一下6月份 数据更离谱：50Y国债收率下行12BP，而30Y和10Y仅下行6BP和3.5BP，算上久期差异更是"一骑绝 尘"，债农：跪求发行100Y国债！ 今天看到一个数据：2024年，按平均数计算，中国人均财富同比增长约5%，按中位数计算，人均财富 同比下降6.3%。中产的没落？今天的瓜很应景：传国有银行总行突现"358限薪令"，普通员工、部门负 责人和总行领导喜提天花板30、50、80W。 【今日盘面】 250011 1.6360/1.6400/1.6320/1.6400 +0.20 央行公开市场开展2205亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2420亿元逆回购和1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 12 - May 18), treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the unexpected progress of China - US trade negotiations and marginal convergence of the capital market. Looking ahead to next week, the capital market is expected to see a slight increase in interest rates during the tax period, and the market sentiment will remain weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process will be tortuous, and there is a possibility of flattening in the short - term [13][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. On Monday, due to the unexpected statement of China - US trade negotiations, futures opened lower, then strengthened slightly and finally weakened significantly. On Tuesday, they turned from weak to strong. On Wednesday, they declined slightly. On Thursday, long - term futures performed strongly. On Friday, the curve flattened bearishly in the morning and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. As of May 16, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main continuous contracts were 102.368, 105.695, 108.460, and 118.880 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.012, +0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - The capital market will be the focus. During the tax period, the capital market is expected to be slightly tighter, and the market sentiment will be weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process is tortuous, and there may be a slight flattening in the short - term. The capital interest rate is expected to rise slightly during the tax period, and the market's concern about the capital market persists [15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 77 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 707.974 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [23] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields increased. As of May 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.88% respectively, up 4.73, 6.80, 4.60, and 4.25 bp from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed [27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests decreased [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy decreased significantly. The basis of each variety is expected to gradually return to a normal level [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads of each variety generally widened in the opposite direction and are expected to gradually converge to 0 in the oscillation. However, the time for deploying this strategy is limited [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan. As of May 16, capital interest rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all increased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank repurchase increased [51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly. As of May 9, the US dollar index increased by 0.56% to 100.9828, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 6 bp to 4.43%. The spread between China and the US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 275 bp [60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, with weak market sentiment, short - term defense is recommended. Aggressive investors can consider buying long - term varieties on dips. In the long - term, the curve is expected to steepen, but the process is tortuous. The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy has decreased significantly, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. The strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can be tried, with a quick - in - quick - out approach [2][65]

当市场突破关键点位时，我们是不知道到底是真突破还是假突破的，只有事后才能看的清楚，用一种傻瓜式的操作就是，一旦突破，就立刻执行入场或出 场的相应操作，而如果是假突破的，则再立刻反向操作。 ——笔记哥《应对》 -------------------------- 资金面边际收敛，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行今日公开市场开展373亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日1903亿元逆回购到期。净回笼1530亿元。 资金面延续昨日收敛态势，DR001与DR007均上行约10BP。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 5) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.62 | | | 2. 63 | 3 | 73192.00 | -1916. 97 ...

离场后，无论是冲动性离，还是计划性离场，过去的都让他们过去，这笔交易已经结束，下笔交易跟这笔交易没有任何的关联或关系，不要把上笔交易的 盈利或亏损，作为下笔交易入场的原因。 下笔交易的入场，与上笔交易无关，只与交易系统的信号有关 ，只要新的信号出现，就入场，没有，就等待。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20241113— 牛X=川老板+马老板（-供给担忧-股市小幅上涨+地产政策未超预期-资金面收敛=中上)】 资金面均衡，长债收益率明显上行。 央行今日公开市场开展2330亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日173亿元逆回购到期。净投放2157亿元。 资金面较昨日有所改善，但任然较为收敛。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 11. 13) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 藏尚利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 ...