金融期货早评 宏观：商品普涨，牛市将至？ 【市场资讯】1）中国央行连续第 14 个月增持黄金。2）上期所调整白银期货相关合约交 易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。3）特朗普称"美国将代表委内瑞拉销售石油"，中方表态： 中委合作受国际法和两国法律保护。4）美国 12 月 ADP 就业人数增加 4.1 万人，低于市场 预期的中值 4.7 万人。5）美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数上升 1.8 点至 54.4，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。新订单增幅创下自 2024 年 9 月以来的最大水平。价格上涨 速度降至九个月来的最慢。6）欧元区 2025 年 12 月 CPI 初值放缓至 2%，符合市场预期。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】昨日国内期货市场普遍上涨，行情呈现出清晰的结构性特征，交 投氛围活跃。这不禁引人思考：当前走势是意味着商品市场迈入新阶段，还是阶段性的资 金现象？从宏观环境看，近期明确的"适度宽松"货币政策基调与强调"集成效应"的调控思路， 为市场提供了偏暖的流动性预期；而"保持人民币汇率基本稳定"的导向，在美元偏弱背景 下亦有助于稳定进口成本。然而，若细究昨日普涨的核心动因，资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a significant influx of capital, with A-shares rising for three consecutive days and foreign capital accelerating its net inflow into the market in July [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Inflow - Foreign capital accelerated its net inflow into the Chinese stock market in July, with passive funds inflowing $3.9 billion and active funds outflowing $1.2 billion, resulting in a total net inflow of $2.7 billion for July, up from $1.2 billion in June [2]. - As of August 5, the financing balance in the A-share market reached 1.9863 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.706 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking a recovery to levels not seen in July for the past decade [1][3]. Group 2: Market Activity - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July approached 2 million, reaching 1.9636 million, a year-on-year increase of 71% and a month-on-month increase of over 19% [5]. - The Baidu search index for stocks surged from 1,709 on August 3 to 14,868 on August 4, indicating a significant increase in public interest in the stock market [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the current market is primarily driven by capital, with major stock indices' risk premiums falling below historical averages, indicating a potential for continued valuation expansion [6][8]. - Historical patterns show that periods when stock market risk premiums fall below "mean -1 standard deviation" are not uncommon, often lasting several months, suggesting that the current market dynamics may follow a similar trajectory [8].