金融期货早评 宏观：商品普涨，牛市将至？ 【市场资讯】1）中国央行连续第 14 个月增持黄金。2）上期所调整白银期货相关合约交 易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。3）特朗普称"美国将代表委内瑞拉销售石油"，中方表态： 中委合作受国际法和两国法律保护。4）美国 12 月 ADP 就业人数增加 4.1 万人，低于市场 预期的中值 4.7 万人。5）美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数上升 1.8 点至 54.4，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。新订单增幅创下自 2024 年 9 月以来的最大水平。价格上涨 速度降至九个月来的最慢。6）欧元区 2025 年 12 月 CPI 初值放缓至 2%，符合市场预期。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】昨日国内期货市场普遍上涨，行情呈现出清晰的结构性特征，交 投氛围活跃。这不禁引人思考：当前走势是意味着商品市场迈入新阶段，还是阶段性的资 金现象？从宏观环境看，近期明确的"适度宽松"货币政策基调与强调"集成效应"的调控思路， 为市场提供了偏暖的流动性预期；而"保持人民币汇率基本稳定"的导向，在美元偏弱背景 下亦有助于稳定进口成本。然而，若细究昨日普涨的核心动因，资 ...

对于这个现象之前我就说过，尤其是当时提出了黄金的滞涨，从某种程度来说，此前一直是黄金比较强势，而后来直接被白银抢了风头，还有一点，就是白 银上涨的时候，黄金属于被动式的跟涨，那么白银如果出现大跌，黄金的跌幅也一定不会小，果然昨晚这些说法都全部兑现了。 除了白银之外，金价的振幅也不小，收盘时纽约黄金期货最终下跌幅度达到了4.6%，盘中最低到了4316美元，应该说黄金期货昨天的大阴线吞吃了过去十 个交易日的上涨，当然了铜期货的大跌幅度也达到了5%，昨夜整个贵金属处于集体的大跳水之中。 昨夜，外盘又崩了，单日亏损16% 先来看看昨夜外盘的情况，白天无论是白银还是黄金，或者说铜和铝，如果说跳水的话，还仅仅是相对早盘的上涨出现的获利回吐，然而到了晚间一切就变 得不寻常起来，白银期货的跌幅最大，到今年凌晨3点时候最大跌幅达到了9%，而昨天早盘的最大涨幅达到了7%，这就相当于一天时间的振幅达到了16%， 盘中最低到了70美元，坦率的说，这会让多头承受比较明显的压力。 当然了从这波白银价格的大涨根本属性看，主要还是工业需求增加以及保值增值的作用，如果仅仅是工业需求的话，我想是不足以演化到今天的这种地步， 实际上白银期货从64 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本周（2025年12月8日--12月12日）交易理想国知识星球共发布36条内容，以下是筛选出的本周精华内容片段摘要，完整版内容可扫码查看。 当黄金被按住，白银开始"说话" 0 1 当黄金"被管理"，白银接过"话筒" 但如果只是短期消息刺激，行情走不了这么远。我觉得，更底层的逻辑在于， 金银比交易的内涵今年发生了微妙变 化 。 以前，金银比走低（白银涨得比黄金快），通常单纯意味着市场更乐观、更"risk on"。但今年多了两层新意思： 黄金"戴上了缰绳" ： 大家注意到了吗？国内外对黄金这个"政治属性"极强的品种，时不时会有一些管理动作。比如上个月底，国内就出了政策，收 紧了民间黄金的增值税抵扣。这就像给黄金的短期流动性设了些"路障"。相比之下，白银的市场玩家更"市场化"，管制少。所以，当黄金想表达但"不 便"充分表达的宏观逻辑（比如对货币信用的担忧、对通胀的押注），就开始由白银这个更自由的兄弟来"接管"和放大。 现货真的"紧"了 ： 这轮白银牛市，催生了一个自我强化的循环：价格上涨 → 吸引大量投资性买盘锁定实物库 ...

Core Insights - Silver is significantly outperforming gold, indicating a potential second phase of the commodity bull market, with spot silver rising over 85% in 2025 from under $30 to over $54 per ounce [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rally in silver prices is driven by tight inventories, persistent investor flows, and a structural supply deficit, with projections of silver reaching $60 next year [3] - Industrial demand for silver rose to 689 million ounces in 2024, with photovoltaic applications accounting for 244 million ounces, a more than 150% increase from 2020 [5] - The Silver Institute anticipates a fifth consecutive annual supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces, despite weak demand for jewelry and silverware [6] - Over 70% of mined silver is a byproduct of other metal production, limiting the ability of producers to respond quickly to price increases [7] Technical Analysis - Silver's price patterns exhibit significant technical formations, including a cup-and-handle pattern, suggesting potential further price increases in 2025 [11]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strategy of "buying cold points and selling hot ones," suggesting that investors should focus on undervalued sectors rather than chasing after current hot stocks [1] - The electricity sector has recently seen a 10% increase in value, indicating a shift from cold to hot, which supports the idea of identifying potential opportunities in less popular sectors [1] - The overall market trend is upward, and investors are encouraged to look for sectors that are still relatively cold, such as non-ferrous metals, which may heat up following a stabilization in tariffs expected on July 9 [1] Sector Analysis - The electricity sector has transitioned from being cold to hot, demonstrating a significant 10% increase in just one week, highlighting the potential for rapid changes in sector performance [1] - Non-ferrous metals are currently identified as a cold sector, suggesting that there may be opportunities for growth as market conditions improve [1] - Emerging technologies such as controllable nuclear fusion, solid-state batteries, and computing chips are also mentioned as potential investment opportunities that may be reaching a favorable time for entry [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Antimony Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the antimony (T) sector, with a strong bullish outlook expressed by analyst Wang Qingyang from Guojin Metal Materials Group, indicating that the market is far from over and remains optimistic about future price increases [2][22]. Key Points and Arguments - **Historical Price Trends**: Antimony prices have shown significant cyclical and volatile trends, with prices rising from approximately 40,000 RMB per ton in 2008 to 110,000 RMB in 2011, driven by commodity bull markets and resource quota policies [2]. - **Current Market Dynamics**: The recent surge in antimony prices is attributed to multiple factors, including commodity bull markets, policy adjustments (such as rare earth quotas and export controls), and the growth of the photovoltaic (PV) industry [2]. - **Export Controls Impact**: Recent export controls on high-purity antimony have led to a drastic drop in export volumes, from 5,000 tons in September to only 50 tons in October, significantly tightening market supply [4]. - **Future Price Expectations**: With the anticipated recovery of exports and the rebuilding of international trade order, domestic antimony is expected to shift from surplus to scarcity, with prices projected to rise from a base target of 250,000 RMB per ton to potentially over 300,000 RMB [2][22]. - **Global Supply Chain Position**: China controls about 50% of global antimony ore production and nearly 70% of smelting capacity, highlighting its significant bargaining power in the global supply chain [9]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Market Influence**: The price increase in photovoltaic glass has significantly boosted industry margins, with a notable increase in gross margins by nearly 10 percentage points due to rising glass prices [11]. - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: The global antimony production is approximately 130,000 tons, with an annual growth rate of only 2%-3%. The decline in production from companies like Russia's Polar Gold may lead to negative growth in global antimony supply by 2025 [18][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Antimony in Photovoltaic Glass**: Antimony is used in photovoltaic glass in small quantities, with a minimum addition of about 1.3‰ per ton of glass, indicating a stable demand even with zero growth in global installations [12]. - **Market Demand Decline**: In the second half of 2024, both domestic and foreign demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline significantly, with total demand dropping by 30%-40% [7]. - **Price Discrepancies**: There is a notable price difference between domestic and international photovoltaic glass, with domestic prices around 200,000 RMB per ton compared to 52,000 USD per ton internationally, indicating potential for increased exports [10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Analysts recommend focusing on key players in the sector, such as Huaxi Nonferrous and Hunan Gold, which are expected to perform well due to their strategic positions and market conditions [22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the antimony sector, emphasizing the bullish outlook and the factors influencing market dynamics.