困在"赌徒心态"中的人 你是不是经常有下面的想法： 1、连抛三次硬币都是正面，下一次背面的概率更高 4、不同时间出门，却在这个路口连续三天遇到红灯，今天应该不会再遇到红灯了吧； 5、最近三次打板都吃大面了，换了一个账户，下一次转运！ 你危险了！那些把身家性命都输光的赌徒也是这么想的。 其实高中数学就学过，抛硬币、掷骰子、彩票号码、股票打板，等等，每一次都是独立事件，过去的结果对未来没有影响。 但学归学，很多人在运气连续不好时，就会觉得运气"欠"自己一次，将随机性拟人化，感觉硬币、骰子或股票记住了它之前的小概率"行为"，会通过反向 操作来平衡之前的失衡。 这个想法好像也有点科学道理，抛硬币的正反面不是应该各占50%吗？出现了连续几次正面，后面不是应该多几个反面吗？不是有一个规律叫"均值回 归"吗？ 所以赌徒输得越多，越是相信只要继续下注，运气就能帮自己翻本，正是这种心态，让他们越输越要赌，直到输光。 要理解这个现象，我们首先应该理解"独立事件概率不变"与"均值回归"这两个规律各自适用的范围： A连开四次"小" 如果赌徒有"无穷多"的钱，那当然一定可以翻本，可如果他有"无穷多"的钱，那还来赌什么呢？ 很多人道理都 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing participation of individual investors in the A-share market, with over 61 million personal investors recorded by the end of February 2025, indicating that nearly one in every 23 Chinese citizens is involved in stock trading [3][5] - Despite the risks and previous losses in the market, new investors continue to enter, driven by a desire for quick profits and the belief that they can be among the few who succeed [5][10] - The phenomenon of "follow the leader" trading has gained popularity, where inexperienced investors mimic the trades of perceived successful investors, often without understanding the underlying fundamentals [12][14] Investor Behavior - Many investors exhibit a gambling mentality, believing they can achieve quick wealth despite the high probability of losses, with a common saying in the market being "seven lose, two break even, one makes a profit" [6][14] - Emotional factors play a significant role in trading decisions, with investors often ignoring risks and continuing to invest even after experiencing losses, driven by the hope of a market rebound [10][16] - The allure of potential quick gains leads to a cycle of repeated investment, where individuals fail to recognize the risks involved, akin to the behavior of gamblers [14][16] Market Dynamics - The stock market is compared to a casino, where only a small percentage of participants make consistent profits, while the majority face losses [3][5] - The current economic environment, characterized by low savings interest rates and high financial pressure, has led many individuals to liquidate assets, such as real estate, to invest in stocks [8][10] - The rise of social media and short video platforms has facilitated the spread of stock trading advice, often leading to uninformed trading decisions among new investors [12][14]