我们都知道，打游戏容易上瘾，而小游戏，更是在传统游戏的基础上变本加厉，把「上瘾」程度推到了 一个令人望尘莫及的高度。 你有没有在朋友圈看到过一个叫做《折螺丝》的小游戏，文案是：「别笑，你试你也过不了第二关」。 然后会发现评论区会出现你的各种熟人。 《折螺丝》也是一样。 我们都知道，打游戏容易上瘾，而小游戏，更是在传统游戏的基础上变本加厉，把「上瘾」程度推到了 一个令人望尘莫及的高度。 你好奇点进去，发现这游戏唯一的任务就是拧螺丝，第一关3秒通关，第二关难度飙升，想要复活就得 看广告。 这么粗糙的小游戏，为什么这么多人在玩？它背后的商业逻辑又是什么？ 这期内容，我们就来聊聊这个话题。 01 很多人以为，小游戏就是把《王者荣耀》做简单点，把《原神》做粗糙点。 这种想法完全不对，因为小游戏和传统手游，根本不是一回事。 小游戏的正式登场，要追溯到2017年底微信推出的「跳一跳」。 这款游戏依托于微信小程序，点开即玩、不用下载、容易上手，还能和好友一起排名比拼，点燃了全网 的竞技热情。 它的成功也让很多从业者看到了小游戏的潜质，从此之后，《羊了个羊》、《抓大鹅》、《咸鱼之王》 等爆款小游戏，开始刷屏你的朋友圈。 首先， ...

越认真止损，亏得越多？ 近期塔勒布（《随机漫步的傻瓜》《黑天鹅》作者）有一篇关于"止损"的文章很火。 关于"止损"，历来有很多争议，要不要止损，如何止损，不仅是投资理念问题，也是一个具体操作的问题，这篇论文的价值在于，在电脑上做了 5000 次 蒙特卡洛模拟后，把之前的一些结论量化了。当然，这些结论也会面临如何在实际投资中运用的问题。 本文先简单介绍一下这篇论文的核心观点，后面再详细分析与"止损"有关的四个重大实操问题。 1/5 图中那根黄线所在的位置是"下跌10%"的止损位线，绿色的曲线是止损后的收益率分布，看上去，右侧正收益部分的概率全部显著增加了，左侧亏损部分 的概率全部减少了。 但问题在于10%止损线处，出现了一个亏损的峰值，论文借用了一个数学名词"狄拉克质量（The Dirac Mass）"。止损不仅切断了灾难，也切断了复活的 机会，所以大量的交易以止损告终，全部堆积在止损线上，这就形成了狄拉克质量。 上图的结果，在无漂移随机漫步（可理解为抛硬币那种零涨跌环境），波动率年化约20–25%（相当于沪深300的波动率），10%的固定止损下，有大约 50%的概率触及止损——这个数字相信高于大部分投资者的心 ...

困在"赌徒心态"中的人 你是不是经常有下面的想法： 1、连抛三次硬币都是正面，下一次背面的概率更高 4、不同时间出门，却在这个路口连续三天遇到红灯，今天应该不会再遇到红灯了吧； 5、最近三次打板都吃大面了，换了一个账户，下一次转运！ 你危险了！那些把身家性命都输光的赌徒也是这么想的。 其实高中数学就学过，抛硬币、掷骰子、彩票号码、股票打板，等等，每一次都是独立事件，过去的结果对未来没有影响。 但学归学，很多人在运气连续不好时，就会觉得运气"欠"自己一次，将随机性拟人化，感觉硬币、骰子或股票记住了它之前的小概率"行为"，会通过反向 操作来平衡之前的失衡。 这个想法好像也有点科学道理，抛硬币的正反面不是应该各占50%吗？出现了连续几次正面，后面不是应该多几个反面吗？不是有一个规律叫"均值回 归"吗？ 所以赌徒输得越多，越是相信只要继续下注，运气就能帮自己翻本，正是这种心态，让他们越输越要赌，直到输光。 要理解这个现象，我们首先应该理解"独立事件概率不变"与"均值回归"这两个规律各自适用的范围： A连开四次"小" 如果赌徒有"无穷多"的钱，那当然一定可以翻本，可如果他有"无穷多"的钱，那还来赌什么呢？ 很多人道理都 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of self-reflection and recognizing personal accountability in the face of failure, rather than attributing failures to external factors [7] - It discusses the "Dunning-Kruger effect," where individuals with lower ability tend to overestimate their competence, while those with higher ability underestimate theirs [10][12] - The concept of "confirmation bias" is highlighted, illustrating how individuals seek information that reinforces their existing beliefs, leading to a narrow perspective [15] Group 2 - The "halo effect" is explained, where people make assumptions about someone's abilities based on their appearance, leading to cognitive biases [18] - The article introduces "availability heuristic," which suggests that people judge the frequency of events based on how easily examples come to mind, potentially distorting their perception of reality [22] - The "spotlight effect" is discussed, indicating that individuals often overestimate the attention others pay to them, which can lead to unnecessary anxiety [24] Group 3 - The article addresses "herd mentality," where individuals follow the crowd without independent thought, often resulting in poor decision-making [26] - It mentions the "Zeigarnik effect," which describes how unfinished tasks can lead to anxiety and distraction, emphasizing the need to manage uncertainty [30][31] - The concept of "black-and-white thinking" is presented, where individuals view situations in extremes, which can hinder personal growth and self-acceptance [36] Group 4 - The article concludes with the idea that most worries are unfounded, as demonstrated by a psychological experiment showing that over 90% of anticipated worries do not materialize [39] - It stresses the importance of recognizing and avoiding cognitive traps to enhance personal growth and decision-making [40][42]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of allowing time for processes to unfold rather than succumbing to anxiety over immediate results, advocating for a mindset that accepts uncertainty and focuses on the journey rather than the outcome [8][24][60]. Group 1 - The narrative illustrates that every endeavor requires time to mature, and rushing for results can lead to negative outcomes [7][12]. - A real-life example is provided where a candidate's anxiety and pressure during the hiring process led to his rejection, highlighting the detrimental effects of impatience [22][23]. - The concept of the "bus effect" is introduced, suggesting that detachment from outcomes can lead to better results, as seen in everyday experiences like waiting for a bus [30][31]. Group 2 - The article shares a personal story of a content creator who initially struggled with growth but learned to focus on the process, ultimately achieving success after several years [36][41]. - It discusses the importance of accepting the "gray area" in life, which reflects a mature mindset that can handle uncertainty and allows for personal growth [49][62]. - The "Zeigarnik effect" is mentioned, explaining how unfinished tasks can lead to anxiety, reinforcing the need to let go of the need for immediate closure [64][66].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of Labubu, a product from Pop Mart, highlighting its marketing strategies and the cultural phenomena surrounding it, while also drawing parallels to past trends in collectible items and the potential risks associated with its financialization. Group 1: Product and Marketing Success - Labubu's popularity surged due to endorsements from high-profile celebrities like Lisa from BLACKPINK, which resonated with the existing toy culture in Thailand and Southeast Asia [15][17] - The strategic placement of Pop Mart stores in prime locations, such as next to luxury brands like LV, enhanced Labubu's market presence and appeal [17] - The viral nature of unboxing videos on TikTok contributed significantly to Labubu's popularity, creating a compelling short video content that attracted more consumers [17] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Psychological Factors - The success of Labubu can be attributed to the elements of uncertain rewards and the Zeigarnik effect, which drive consumer engagement and desire for completion [24][31] - The high social and emotional value associated with collectible items like Labubu enhances their appeal, making them more than just products but also status symbols [33][35] Group 3: Financialization and Market Risks - Labubu's high resale value in the secondary market has led to its perception as a financial product, raising concerns about the sustainability of its value [38][40] - The article warns that as Labubu transitions from a collectible to a financial asset, it may face similar pitfalls as past trends in collectibles, such as the君子兰 phenomenon, where initial hype led to significant market corrections [44][53] Group 4: Company Leadership and Vision - Wang Ning, the founder of Pop Mart, has seen significant personal financial success, with his wealth increasing over tenfold since March 2024, reflecting the company's stock performance [55] - His past experiences and responses to skepticism during the company's early days demonstrate a strong vision and commitment to building a brand in a competitive market [57]

Core Insights - Labubu has become a phenomenon in the 2025 consumer market, with a unique mint-colored version recently auctioned for 1.08 million yuan, highlighting its global appeal [1][4] - The demand for Labubu has led to significant price increases in the secondary market, with limited editions selling for over 10,000 yuan in China [4] - The popularity of Labubu is driven by psychological factors such as dopamine-driven uncertainty rewards, collection urges, and social currency among consumers [11][16][18] Market Performance - In 2024, Pop Mart opened 38 new stores in mainland China, and its membership grew from 26 million in 2022 to over 46 million by the end of 2024, indicating strong consumer interest [9] - The THE MONSTERS series, featuring Labubu, generated revenue of 3.04 billion yuan in 2024, a staggering year-on-year growth of 726.6% [20][35] - Pop Mart's overall revenue reached 13.038 billion yuan in 2024, with overseas markets contributing 5.066 billion yuan, a 375.2% increase [35] Consumer Behavior - The appeal of Labubu is not solely based on aesthetics; many consumers find the design quirky and even unattractive, yet they are still drawn to the product [11][18] - The "uncertainty reward" mechanism, akin to gambling, encourages repeated purchases as consumers seek the thrill of obtaining rare items [13][14] - Labubu has become a form of social currency, with collectors showcasing their rare finds on social media, enhancing their social status [18][30] Marketing Strategies - Pop Mart employs scarcity marketing, with only 0.69% of hidden variants available, creating a sense of urgency and desire among consumers [31] - Collaborations with popular brands and events have amplified Labubu's visibility, leading to viral marketing successes [34] - The brand's international appeal is bolstered by a diverse team of designers, many of whom have global backgrounds, making Labubu attractive to a wide audience [34] Future Outlook - Despite its current success, there are concerns about the sustainability of Labubu's popularity, as consumer trends can shift rapidly [39] - Analysts predict that Pop Mart's revenue could reach 22.601 billion HKD in 2025, with a net profit of 6.5 billion HKD, reflecting continued growth [38] - The company faces challenges in maintaining its momentum and avoiding the pitfalls of market saturation and changing consumer preferences [39][42]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the explosive popularity of Labubu, a character from Pop Mart, highlighting its unique appeal and the underlying psychological mechanisms driving consumer behavior, as well as the company's impressive financial performance and growth in the global market [4][12][48]. Group 1: Labubu's Popularity - Labubu has become a global phenomenon, with a unique design that has captivated consumers despite mixed aesthetic opinions [4][13]. - The character's success is attributed to a dopamine-driven "uncertainty reward" mechanism, similar to gambling, where consumers experience excitement from the unpredictability of blind box purchases [15][17]. - Collecting behavior and the Zeigarnik effect play significant roles in consumer engagement, as incomplete collections create a sense of discomfort that drives further purchases [18][21]. Group 2: Market Performance - In 2024, Pop Mart added 38 new stores in mainland China, with membership growing from 26 million in 2022 to over 46 million by the end of 2024 [12]. - The THE MONSTERS series, featuring Labubu, generated revenue of 30.4 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year increase of 726.6% [49][26]. - Pop Mart's total revenue reached 130.38 billion yuan in 2024, with overseas markets contributing 50.66 billion yuan, a 375.2% increase [48][51]. Group 3: Marketing Strategies - Pop Mart employs scarcity marketing, creating a perception of high value for Labubu through limited availability of hidden variants, which enhances consumer desire [38][39]. - The brand has successfully utilized event marketing and collaborations with popular franchises to expand its reach and maintain consumer interest [41][43]. - The influence of social media and short video platforms like TikTok has significantly boosted Labubu's visibility and appeal among younger consumers [46]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite current success, there are concerns about the sustainability of Labubu's popularity, as consumer attention can shift rapidly in the face of new trends [54][55]. - The article suggests that the future of Pop Mart and Labubu will depend on the company's ability to innovate and create new appealing products [55][63].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of Labubu as a popular collectible toy, emphasizing the interplay of aesthetic trends, social media influence, and consumer psychology in driving its success [5][15]. Group 1: Aesthetic Trends and Consumer Behavior - Labubu's appeal lies in its "ugly-cute" design, which resonates with the current aesthetic preferences of young consumers [4][6]. - The evolution of aesthetic standards is influenced by power dynamics, where brands like LV shape perceptions of beauty through marketing [5]. - The popularity of Labubu is partly attributed to endorsements from celebrities, such as members of the K-pop group Blackpink, which enhances its desirability [6][7]. Group 2: Psychological Mechanisms Behind Collecting - The dopamine-driven "uncertainty reward" mechanism plays a crucial role in the excitement of unboxing toys, similar to gambling behavior [8][9]. - The collection of toys often follows a series format, triggering the "Zeigarnik effect," where incomplete tasks create a sense of discomfort, motivating further purchases to achieve completion [10]. - Social currency and the desire for recognition drive consumers to showcase their collections on social media, reinforcing their purchasing behavior [11][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The secondary market for Labubu toys allows consumers to buy and sell rare items, sometimes at significant markups, creating a closed-loop commercial model [14]. - Despite current popularity, the article suggests that Labubu may not maintain its appeal indefinitely due to the fast-paced nature of consumer trends and the need for brands to innovate continuously [15][16]. - The emotional compensation provided by collectible toys reflects a broader societal trend of seeking connection and fulfillment in a rapidly changing world [17][19].