Why Asia Can't Undo Decades of Falling Fertility Rates 作者：丹尼尔·莫斯是彭博观点专栏作家，主要报道亚洲经济。此前，他曾担任彭博新闻社经济版 执行编辑。 摄影师：罗斯兰·拉赫曼/法新社/盖蒂图片社 新加坡已收到警告。这个城邦国家长期以来一直在努力提高生育率。但尽管政府出台了一系列激 励措施，夫妇们对生育更多子女没有兴趣。 大多数发达国家都面临着同样的挑战。 超低生育率 是快速发展和生活水平提高的必然结果。 韩国、日本、中国的生育率都远低于2.1，人口学家认为，2.1是社会自我维持的临界值。 乏实质性提升的情况下，如此低的生育率引发了人们对移民、机器人技术和人工智能等因素的深 刻思考。此外，新加坡人口老龄化问题日益严重；政府已发出警告，新加坡很快将成为一个"超 老龄化"社会。 与日本、韩国和中国不同，新加坡致力于吸引所需劳动力，尤其是在其视为战略要地的行业，例 如科技、工程和金融。在某些重要方面，新加坡比其他同类国家更有优势应对挑战。 然而，这种 优势也存在局限性：自2011年选举失利以来，执政党一直强调，人口增长不会以牺牲公民就业 为代价。 政府就此放弃 ...

Core Viewpoint - Germany's fertility rate has declined to 1.35 in 2024, marking the lowest level in nearly 17 years, raising concerns about long-term demographic changes [1][2][3] Group 1: Fertility Rate Trends - The total fertility rate in Germany decreased by 2% from 1.38 in 2023 to 1.35 in 2024, the lowest since 2006 [1][3] - The fertility rate has shown a downward trend since reaching 1.58 in 2021, remaining below the replacement level of 2.1 [2][3] - The decline in fertility rates has accelerated, with rates dropping by 8% in 2022 and 7% in 2023 [3] Group 2: Demographic Implications - The current fertility rate of 1.35 has breached the UN's "ultra-low" threshold of 1.4, indicating a potentially irreversible trend [3] - The fertility rate for German women has fallen to 1.23, the lowest since 1996, while the rate for foreign women in Germany is 1.84, also down by 2% from 2023 [3] Group 3: Comparative Fertility Rates in Europe - Other European countries like Estonia and Austria have also seen fertility rates drop below 1.4, joining Spain, Greece, and Italy among others [3] - Bulgaria had the highest fertility rate in the EU at 1.81 in 2023, while Malta (1.06) and Spain (1.12) had the lowest [3] Group 4: Global Context - South Korea has the lowest fertility rate globally, recorded at 0.75 in 2024 [4]

Group 1 - In April, South Korea's newborn population reached 20,717, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase, the highest monthly growth since April 1991 [1] - The total fertility rate in South Korea rose to 0.79 in April, an increase of 0.06 compared to the previous year, although it remains significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 [1] - The rise in birth rates is attributed to an increase in marriage rates, a growing population of women in their early 30s, and various government policies aimed at promoting childbirth [1][2] Group 2 - The number of marriages in April increased by 4.9% year-on-year, reaching 18,921 couples, marking the 13th consecutive month of growth [2] - The population of women aged 30 to 34 has grown from 1.51 million in 2020 to 1.65 million in May this year, contributing to higher marriage and birth rates [2] - Despite the positive trends, experts express skepticism about the sustainability of these increases due to structural issues such as high housing costs, intense educational competition, and changing attitudes towards marriage and family among the younger generation [2][3] Group 3 - The South Korean government has implemented measures such as a monthly childcare allowance of 300,000 KRW (approximately 1,740 RMB) for parents of children under one year old and increased parental leave [2] - A recent UN report categorizes South Korea as a "super low fertility" country, estimating only a 0.1% chance of restoring the total fertility rate to a level that can achieve generational replacement within the next 30 years [2] - Economic challenges related to population issues are prompting both the government and major companies to take action to reverse the declining birth rate trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's demographic dividend is rapidly diminishing, prompting the government to amend its population policy to allow couples to decide on the number and timing of children without restrictions, contrasting with China's earlier policy changes [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The recent amendment to the Population Law allows couples to determine their family size based on various personal factors, effectively abolishing the previous limit of one to two children [2]. - Vietnam's total fertility rate remains at 1.91, which is still above China's rate when it relaxed its one-child policy, indicating a proactive approach to demographic challenges [2]. Group 2: Demographic Concerns - Vietnam is experiencing a significant decline in birth rates, dropping from 2.11 to 1.91 between 2022 and 2024, a rapid decrease compared to other countries [4][6]. - Projections indicate that if the current trend continues, Vietnam could face a labor shortage within a decade, transitioning to an aging population by 2034 [6][7]. Group 3: Socioeconomic Factors - Urbanization and rising living costs are contributing to changing attitudes towards marriage and childbirth among the youth, with many young people facing high housing costs and limited social circles [9][11]. - The average age of first marriage for women has increased to 27, reflecting a shift in societal norms and priorities, particularly among educated women [15]. Group 4: Labor Market Challenges - Companies in Vietnam are struggling to fill positions, with reports of labor shortages in manufacturing despite offering competitive salaries [16]. - The younger workforce is increasingly favoring flexible job opportunities in the service sector over traditional manufacturing roles, leading to a mismatch in labor supply and demand [16][17].