税期结束后 DR001 能回到 1.3%吗？ —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250720 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 7 月 20 日 3税期结束后 DR001 能回到 1.3%吗？ [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 20 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 信达证券股份有限公司 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行 OM ...

复盘本周资金市场，周一（7 日）作为跨季资金回收的最后时点，央行延续缩 量续作，净回笼 2250 亿元，标志着本轮跨季呵护的资金回笼完毕。随后的 8-9 日， 央行延续净回笼态势，分别回收资金 620 亿元和 230 亿元。在持续的净回笼压力 下，7 月 9 日的隔夜和 7 天资金利率较前一周五普遍回升 1-2bp。 为应对资金面边际收紧，央行于 10-11 日重启逆回购净投放，不过资金价格依 然延续上行态势。截至 11日，R001重回 OMO 利率之上，较月初低点上行 4.3bp， 报 1.40%；R007 也重回 1.5%+，较月初低点上行 2.1bp 至 1.51%。 证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 大税期将至，银行融出降至 3 万亿+ [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：逆回购持续回笼，资金价格小幅反弹 7 月 7-11 日，跨季资金回笼基本告一段落，央行于 10-11 日开启净投放，不过 资金价格依然延续上升态势。 资金面收敛的背后，是银行融出回归中性水平。银行平均单日融 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 1.3%的隔夜能持续吗？ 1、资金面聚焦：1.3%的隔夜能持续吗？ 周初，央行大额投放支持跨季资金面，资金价格季节性走高，资金面整体 维持平稳。跨季结束后，央行公开市场连日大额净回笼，但不改资金面转 松趋势，大行融出快速回升，资金、存单价格下台阶。 7 月，资金面或再度进入较为舒适区间。当中除了季节性规律之外，当前 央行呵护态度仍在，也将形成一定支撑。与此同时，今年 7 月也仍有一定 扰动，关注资金面的阶段性压力。首先，7 月资金利率往往处于年内的较 低水平，与政策利率的利差中枢也有一定下移；其次，当前央行呵护仍在 位，参考 6 月 MLF 和买断式逆回购操作情况，下周月初时点不排除有买断 式逆回购操作的落地。但也需要考虑到当前操作思路更趋灵活精准，节奏 或综合考虑政府债发行、月中及月末 MLF 回笼情况、月中税期走款等多重 变量的影响。市场对于国债买卖的重启也较为关注，8-9 月或将迎来供给 高峰，届时或是国债买卖操作是否重启的观察窗口期。第三，资金面的扰 动则主要在于历史上的 7 月往往为缴税大月，今年 7 月，月中税期走款、 MLF 回笼的同时，15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the liquidity situation from May to July 2025, predicting that the excess reserve ratio in June will reach 1.5%, and in July it will be around 1.3%. It also points out that the central bank may have adjusted its monetary policy operation target to focus on DR001, and the funding rate in July is expected to continue to decline, maintaining an optimistic outlook on the July liquidity environment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 May: Central Bank's Continuous Additional Withdrawal and Slow Disbursement of Replacement Bonds Lead to Lower - than - Expected Increase in Excess Reserve Ratio - In May, the excess reserve ratio rose by about 0.1pct to 1.0%, lower than the expected 1.2%, remaining at the lowest level in the same period since 2019. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations decreased by an additional about 140 billion yuan, and the cumulative decline since March exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan [6] - Fiscal deposits in May increased by 28.1 billion yuan, slightly higher than expected. The government deposit decreased by an additional 53 billion yuan compared to the sum of the general fiscal surplus and net government bond payments, lower than the expected 65 billion yuan. The progress of special refinancing bonds in May might still be lower than expected [8] - The cash return in May was slow, and the reserve requirement and foreign exchange funds were close to expectations. The central bank's claims on the government decreased by 8.42 billion yuan, and the increase compared to before the central bank started bond - buying in July last year was less than 1 trillion yuan [8] 3.2 June: Excess Reserves Return to Neutral, and the Central Bank Promotes Funding Normalization Step by Step with DR001 as the Anchor - In June, the government deposit is expected to decrease by about 74 billion yuan, which is an important source of liquidity supplement. The reserve requirement may consume about 32 billion yuan of excess reserves, currency issuance may increase by about 3 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds may withdraw about 5 billion yuan. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to increase by about 1.23 trillion yuan month - on - month, and the excess reserve ratio is expected to be about 1.5%, up about 0.5pct from May [11] - The central bank disclosed the liquidity injection situation of various central bank tools in May and announced the tender information of repurchase - style reverse repurchase one day before the operation, which is interpreted as an attempt to increase policy transparency, but it is still difficult to fully convey the central bank's policy intention [24][27] - In June, the central bank's net lending center of banks continued to rise, accompanied by a decline in funding rates. DR007 did not fall to the expected 1.4% - 1.5% range, while the average value of DR001 fell below 1.4%, which may reflect a change in the central bank's funding regulation model. The central bank may have adjusted its monetary policy operation target to focus on DR001 [29][35] 3.3 In a Steady - State Environment, the Lower Limit of Funding Easing Has Not Been Reached, and Funding Rates in July Are Expected to Continue to Decline - In July, the government deposit is expected to increase by about 46 billion yuan month - on - month, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years, and the consumption of excess reserves will be marginally weakened. The reserve requirement may decrease by about 10 billion yuan, currency issuance may increase by about 3 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds may continue to withdraw about 5 billion yuan. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to decrease by about 24 billion yuan month - on - month, and the excess reserve ratio is expected to be about 1.3%, down 0.2pct from June [42] - As of June, the average value of DR001 has fallen close to the policy rate. Whether it can continue to decline in July is the core issue of market concern. Although the central bank maintains the goal of restricting the rapid decline of interest rates, it also needs to balance cost reduction and maintaining bank spreads. If the current fundamental environment does not change significantly, the current monetary easing tone may continue [3][54] - Historically, interest rate cuts have often occurred in Q3, and if there is an interest rate cut this year, it is likely to be after the Politburo meeting in July. Even if there is no interest rate cut, there may still be room for further easing in the funding market, and it is likely that DR001 will fall below 1.3%. The overall outlook for the July liquidity environment is still optimistic [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main tone of "moderately loose monetary policy" remains unchanged, and stabilizing growth is still the central bank's primary short - term goal. If economic growth shows no improvement and faces more pressure, a new round of broad monetary policy may be launched [1]. - In July, the large - scale supply of government bonds and tax - payment factors will significantly interfere with the capital market. However, the central bank's support for the capital market is expected to continue, with overnight and 7 - day capital interest rates likely to remain stable [1]. - The supply - demand structure of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) will further improve in July, with the maturity scale of CDs decreasing and the interest rate having room to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank made substantial net injections to support cross - quarter liquidity, leading to a divergence in capital prices. Overnight capital interest rates were stable, while 7 - day rates rose significantly, and the liquidity stratification phenomenon was obvious [5]. - The second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting changed the wording, but it doesn't rule out the possibility of broad monetary policy in the third quarter. If the economy doesn't improve, new policies may be introduced [5]. - In July, large government bond supply and tax - payment factors will affect the capital market, but the central bank's support is expected to continue. The overnight capital interest rate may fluctuate around the policy rate, and the 7 - day rate may return to around 1.5% [6]. - It is estimated that in July 2025, government bond issuance will be 2.61 - 2.86 trillion yuan, with net financing of 1.45 - 1.70 trillion yuan, slightly higher than in June. The supply of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds may increase, and new local government special bonds are expected to be the main type in the third quarter [6]. - In July, MLF and buy - out repurchase maturities total 1.5 trillion yuan, more than in June. The central bank's operation method has enhanced its control over medium - and long - term liquidity [10]. - Thanks to the central bank's support, in June, CDs maintained high - volume issuance with stable or decreasing prices. In July, the supply - demand structure of CDs will improve, and the interest rate has room to decline [10]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From June 23 to June 27, overnight capital interest rates were stable (DR001 around 1.37%, R001 between 1.44% - 1.46%), while 7 - day rates rose (DR007 from 1.51% to 1.70%, R007 from 1.56% to 1.92%), and the liquidity stratification was obvious [13]. - During this period, the bank's capital lending scale increased, the money fund's lending scale decreased, and the bond market leverage ratio continued to rise [17]. - From June 23 to June 27, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased, with the 3M national - share discount rate and half - year national - share transfer discount rate showing corresponding changes [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of June 27, the central bank's total balance of open - market operations was 1168.85 billion yuan, including 202.75 billion yuan in pledged repurchase, 480 billion yuan in buy - out repurchase, and 515 billion yuan in MLF [23]. - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan, with 106.72 billion yuan in pledged repurchase. In June, buy - out repurchase and MLF maturities and net injections were as expected. From June 30 to July 4, pledged repurchase maturities reached 202.75 billion yuan [27]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From June 23 to June 27, treasury bond issuance was 11.1 billion yuan, and net financing was 11.1 billion yuan; local bond issuance was 64.164 billion yuan, with net financing of 56.0393 billion yuan [33]. - It is estimated that from June 30 to July 4, treasury bond issuance will be 0 yuan, with net financing of - 8.015 billion yuan; local bond issuance will be 7.2139 billion yuan, with net financing of 2.1676 billion yuan [33]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From June 23 to June 27, government bond net payment was 78.981 billion yuan, including 33.1 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 45.881 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from June 30 to July 4, the net payment will be - 0.594 billion yuan [39]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of Inter - bank CDs - From June 23 to June 27, inter - bank CD issuance was 72.64 billion yuan, with net financing of - 41.15 billion yuan. The maturity scale from June 30 to July 4 was 27.67 billion yuan. By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest issuance; by term type, 3M CDs had the highest issuance [42]. - The overall issuance success rate was 94%. State - owned banks and other banks had a 100% success rate, and 3M CDs had a 95% success rate. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and terms decreased [42][43]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - bank CDs - From June 23 to June 27, despite the tightened cross - quarter liquidity, the yields of secondary - market CDs of all terms increased slightly, and the yield curve was partially inverted [60]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of May 2025 was 0.52%. From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan, and government bond net payment was 78.981 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 47.739 billion yuan [64].

资金与银行负债，谁影响谁？ ——2025 年 6 月流动性展望 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 6 月 4 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3资金与银行负债，谁影响谁？ 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com3 ——2025 年 6 月流动性展望 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 4 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 4 月超储率环比下降 0.1pct 至 0.9%，低于我们此前 ...

歌声ue 如何看待降准落地后资金面的边际收敛？ —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250518 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 5 月 18 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 18 日 [➢Table_Summary] 本周央行逆回购净回笼 3501 亿元，周四 1250 亿 MLF 到期，但降准 0.5%也在 当日落地。尽管央行在周中持续净回笼，但上半周资金利率显著走低，R001 降至 1.4%-1.45%的区间。尽管周四降准落地，但 MLF 到期叠加政府债缴款规 模增大，尾盘资金边际收紧，周五央行小幅净投放，早盘资金紧张持 ...

降准降息落地前，资金利率有望继续向政策利率靠拢 ——2025 年 5 月流动性展望 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 5 日 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3降准降息落地前，资金利率有望继续向政策利率靠拢 ——2025 年 5 月流动性展望 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 5 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 3 月超储率环比下降 0.2pct 至 1.0%。3 月央行对其他存款性公司债权下降 1.36 万亿，降 ...