证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 资金利率或低位运行 往后看，税期前资金面有望维持平稳，10 月流动性的考验或集中在月末。受国 庆假期影响，本月税期申报截止日延迟至 27 日，28-29 日为走款日。这也意味着， 税期和跨月周重合，且 10月为季初大税期，跨月前的流动性压力更为突出。而在此 之前，资金面基本处于利空因素真空期。 与此同时，下周政府债供给压力也较低。（10 月 13-17 日）政府债净缴款规模 仅为 748 亿元，对资金面的扰动不大。在此背景下，影响下周流动性的主要因素依 然是公开市场到期。10 月 13-17 日，央行公开市场合计到期 19710 亿元。不过6月 以来，央行惯例是在每月 15 日（遇周末递延至 16 日）续作 6 个月买断式逆回购。 若本月如期投放，资金利率大概率维持低位运行，隔夜利率摆布在 OMO-5bp 附 近，7 天资金利率维持在 1.50%以下。 ►公开市场：10 月 13-17 日，逆回购到期 1 万亿+ [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy regular meeting continues the "supportive" monetary policy idea. While "maintaining abundant liquidity", it also "prevents fund idling", and the pattern of "ample quantity and stable price" in narrow - sense liquidity may continue. The mention of "implementing various monetary policy measures and fully releasing policy effects" does not necessarily mean that the focus of monetary policy is on existing policies, and incremental policies can also be expected [1][3]. - The cross - quarter capital market may be relatively loose. The cross - quarter capital price will first rise and then fall. The central bank's injection, fiscal expenditure, and smooth bank financing may contribute to a loose cross - quarter capital pattern [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations: Active Injection of Medium - term Liquidity Continues - **Short - term liquidity**: In the past week (9/22 - 9/26), the central bank's open - market pledged reverse repurchase had a net injection of 6406 billion yuan. As of 9/26, the balance of the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase was 24674 billion yuan, slightly higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (9/28 - 9/30), the due amount of the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase is 5166 billion yuan, and the central bank may continue to support short - term liquidity [11]. - **Long - term liquidity**: In the past week, the central bank renewed 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, with 3000 billion yuan due, resulting in a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. MLF has had a net injection for 4 consecutive months [12]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance: The Net Payment of Government Bonds in the Next Week is 212.1 Billion Yuan, with Small Supply Pressure - **Net payment of government bonds**: In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 128.6 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 59.4 billion yuan for treasury bonds and a net payment of 188.1 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 212.1 billion yuan, with a net payment of 157.3 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 54.8 billion yuan for local bonds. The overall net payment pressure is small, and the net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday [19]. - **Issuance rhythm and progress of government bonds**: As of 9/26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 81.1%, a decrease of 2.2% compared with the previous week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 1.26 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 83.1%, an increase of 3.0% in the past week, and the remaining issuance space in 2025 is about 0.88 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 99.8%, and the remaining issuance space in 2025 is 4.3 billion yuan. The issuance rhythm of new local bonds is faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 and 2023 [20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market: Bill Interest Rates Slightly Recovered at the End of September At the end of September, bill interest rates rose significantly. On 9/26, the 3M direct - discount rate for national - share bills was 1.45% (1.33% on 9/19), and the transfer - discount rate was 1.34% (1.25% on 9/19); the 6M direct - discount rate was 0.92% (unchanged from 9/19), and the transfer - discount rate was 0.85% (0.86% on 9/19) [30]. 3.1.4 Capital Review: Cross - quarter Capital Costs First Rose and Then Fell - **Capital sentiment index**: Affected by the new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection falling short of expectations, the capital market tightened in the middle of the week, and the capital sentiment index reached 60 on Wednesday. After the central bank's large - scale injection of 14D reverse repurchase on Friday, the cross - quarter capital market significantly loosened [33]. - **Capital price**: Affected by the new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection falling short of expectations, capital interest rates rose from Tuesday to Thursday. After the central bank's large - scale injection of 14D reverse repurchase on Friday, the cross - quarter capital market significantly loosened. On 9/26, DR001 decreased by about 15bp to 1.32% compared with 9/19, and DR007 increased by 2bp to 1.53% [36]. - **Capital stratification**: Affected by the cross - quarter period, the spread between DR007 and DR001 widened by 17BP compared with the previous week. During the past week, two new shares were subscribed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and GC001 rose to a maximum of 1.69% [37]. - **Pledged - repurchase trading volume and overnight trading volume ratio**: The overnight trading volume ratio is still relatively high but has decreased compared with the previous week. Affected by the cross - quarter period, overnight trading volume decreased significantly. Generally, "rolling overnight" is still a good strategy under the condition of loose capital. On 9/26, the overnight trading volume ratios of DR, R, and GC were 89%, 37%, and 86% respectively, still at a relatively high level [42]. - **Capital supply and demand**: Currently, the net financing of large - scale banks is still at a seasonal high. On 9/26, the net financing of the banking system was 3.8 trillion yuan, including 4 trillion yuan from large - scale banks, and joint - stock banks turned to net financing. The net financing demand of core institutions in the non - banking system remained basically stable, and the net financing scale of funds, securities firms, insurance companies, and other products was 5.54 trillion yuan, slightly higher than that on 9/19. The net financing scale of core net - financing providers in the non - banking system (money - market funds, wealth - management products, and other institutions) decreased slightly. In terms of different maturities, large - scale banks' net financing is mainly overnight; funds and securities firms' net financing is mainly R001; insurance companies and other products have longer financing maturities, mainly R007; money - market funds have a small amount of net financing in R001 and a large amount of net financing in R007 and R014 [46]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Continuous Net Repayment, and the Long - term Liability Pressure of Banks May Be Controllable - **Issuance situation**: In the past week, the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 673.6 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 308.6 billion yuan. As of 9/26, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was about 574 billion yuan. In terms of different issuers, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit in the past week was in the order of state - owned banks (313 billion yuan)> city commercial banks (236.1 billion yuan)> joint - stock banks (201.5 billion yuan)> rural commercial banks (36.1 billion yuan). In terms of different maturities, the weighted issuance term of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly in the past week, and the weighted issuance term of state - owned, joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks was 0.43 years [53]. - **Primary and secondary market prices**: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of different maturities for state - owned and joint - stock banks remained basically stable. The average issuance interest rates of state - owned banks for 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y in the week were 1.59%, 1.58%, 1.65%, 1.68%, and 1.69% respectively. The secondary - market yield of certificates of deposit increased slightly. On 9/26, the 1Y AAA certificate of deposit's maturity yield was 1.69%, up 1BP from 9/19 [58].

Liquidity Trends - From September 22-26, the liquidity environment experienced significant fluctuations, with overnight rates (R001) rising from 1.46% to 1.52% and 7-day rates (R007) increasing from 1.52% to 1.80%[1][10][11] - On September 26, the central bank injected 600 billion CNY through 14-day reverse repos and continued with 165.8 billion CNY in 7-day reverse repos, leading to a rapid decline in rates, with R001 falling 18 basis points to 1.33% and R007 dropping 24 basis points to 1.55%[1][11] Future Outlook - The liquidity is expected to return to a more accommodative state in the week following the holiday (September 29-30), with R007 likely to remain below 2.0%[2][23] - The upcoming week will see a significant amount of reverse repos maturing, totaling approximately 1.95 trillion CNY, which may exert pressure on liquidity if the central bank does not continue its support[2][24] Market Operations - The central bank's net injection in the open market from September 22-26 was 940.6 billion CNY, with 7-day reverse repos totaling 1.5674 trillion CNY and 14-day reverse repos at 900 billion CNY[3][30] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing on October 9-10 is projected to be 1.9508 trillion CNY, indicating a substantial liquidity event post-holiday[3][30] Credit Market Insights - In the last week of September, the average 1-month bill rate increased by 4 basis points compared to the previous week, indicating a potential rise in bank credit issuance[4][33] - Despite the increase in rates, the overall credit issuance remains weaker than seasonal trends, with major banks showing a net purchase of 123.8 billion CNY in bills, slightly higher than the previous year's 113.2 billion CNY[4][33] Government Debt Activity - From September 29 to October 10, the net payment for government bonds is expected to be 188.2 billion CNY, with a notable decrease in issuance compared to the previous week[5][37] - The net payment before the holiday is projected at 192.7 billion CNY, while post-holiday payments are expected to be negative at -44 million CNY[5][37] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Trends - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.66%, reflecting a 1.6 basis point increase from the previous week[6][43] - The upcoming maturity pressure for certificates of deposit is relatively low, with 175.7 billion CNY maturing on September 29-30 and 132 billion CNY on October 9-10[6][49]

内容提要 文章详细梳理已有研究，分析影响票据利率的主要因素，提出含资金利率、信贷与社融、货币政策这三大影响因素的票据利率分析框架，并在此基础上探讨 2019年以来票据利率及其影响因素的相关性及市场变迁。 一、票据利率的影响因素 票据市场是企业获取短期融资的重要渠道，其利率波动受多重因素影响。研究票据利率能为广大市场参与者提供定价参考、资产估值、投资建议等。总结分 析已有文献，本文认为票据利率主要受以下三重因素影响。 首先是资金利率。票据产品具有资金属性。钟俊等（2015）研究发现资金利率对票据价格影响显著。杨炳（2020）用6个月同业存单利率、7天质押式回购利 率和7天同存利率构建了票据利率的回归模型。刘通（2022）研究了1年期国股银票的利率与1年期同业存单利率利差的影响因素。以上研究证明了资金利率 与票据利率具有较强的相关性，由于资金利率相对透明，因此成为早期票据利率研究的重点。 其次是信贷和社会融资规模。信贷规模是金融机构贷款总量，其中的票据融资规模是指银行体系内的票据贴现和转贴现的余额；社会融资规模是实体经济从 金融体系获取的所有资金总和，其中的未贴现银票是指银行承兑后未进入银行信贷规模的票据余额。钟 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings (00700) announced the completion of issuing RMB 9 billion notes under its global medium-term note program on September 23, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company has successfully issued RMB 9 billion in notes [1]

Group 1 - The company, Tencent Holdings, announced the completion of the issuance of RMB 9 billion notes under its global medium-term note program on September 23, 2025 [1]

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兴证国际(06058)发布公告，公司间接全资附属公司CISI Investment自2025年8月21日至2025年9月18日期 间，于公开市场购买本金总额为1900万美元的票据，总代价为约1909.42万美元。 ...

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