Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment remains loose despite a significant net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan in OMO operations during the week of January 3 to January 9, 2026, with the DR001 rate staying below 1.3% [2][15][31] - The central bank's recent meetings suggest a shift in attitude towards more flexible monetary policy tools, including potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to support economic growth [4][34][33] - The upcoming government bond issuance is expected to increase significantly, with a net supply of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan anticipated in January, which may lead to a rise in the central bank's bond purchases [35][36][55] Group 2 - The interbank lending market shows a slight decrease in Shibor rates, with the 1-year Shibor rate falling to 1.65% as of January 9, 2026, indicating a trend of declining borrowing costs [9][63] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit has seen a net repayment of 156.4 billion yuan, with the total issuance rising to 1.764 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in funding dynamics among different types of banks [10][68] - The report highlights that the success rate of issuance for state-owned banks has improved, while other bank types have seen a decline, indicating varying levels of demand and market confidence [69]

[Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 10 日 证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Title] 税期未至，资金面依然平稳 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：年初，资金面如期转松 1 月 5-9 日，跨年后，尽管月初央行大额回笼跨年资金投放，但在财政支出的 作用下，资金利率自发回归低位。周一周二 R001 稳定在 1.33%附近，然而随着连 续回笼造成的流动性缺口压力不断集聚，资金利率自周中开始缓步上行。即便周四 周五回笼压力缓释，央行操作转向净投放（分别净投放 99、340 亿元），但上行趋 势依旧未改，于周五升至 1.35%，不过整体仍运行于 OMO利率下方。7天资金利率 走势与之分化，周一至周三 R007 由 1.45%连续升至 1.53%后，随着买断式逆回购 等额续作落地，利率重回下行通道，周五收于 1.52%。 ►展望：税期扰动之前，资金面大概率继续维持平稳宽松 展望下周（1月 12-16日），资金常规占用水平降至低位，税期的影响预计在16 日（周五）之后逐步显现。在此之前，资金面大概率继续维持平稳宽松，隔夜利率 围绕 1.35%附近波 ...

华福证券 2026 年 01 月 04 日 固 定 收 益 跨年资金维持宽松 年后中枢或难显著提升 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 260104 投资要点： 固 货币市场：本周 7DOMO 净投放 11710 亿。跨年因素扰动下，周初资 金价格分化，隔夜利率维持低位，周二 DR001 再创 2023 年 8 月以来的新 低，但跨年资金价格有所提升。随着央行持续大额净投放，年末财政或集 中支出，跨年当日资金整体维持宽松。 定 收 益 定 期 报 告 本周质押式回购成交量持续回落，日均成交量环比下降 2.44 万亿至 6.04 万亿；质押式回购整体规模同样持续回落，周三降至 12 万亿下方。本 周大行净融出持续大幅回落；上半周股份行净融出持续上升、城商行维持 震荡，二者均在跨年当日大幅下降；银行刚性净融出持续走低，周三降至 4.5 万亿附近。非银刚性融出持续上升超 7000 亿，尤其是其他产品与理财 大幅提升；非银刚性融入规模震荡回落，但整体降幅不大，其中基金、券 商融入降幅较大。资金缺口指数周一下行后有所回升，季调后指数周三升 至-6360，高于上周的-8857，但仍处于历年跨年的最低水平。本周银行间 市场和交 ...

在安徽省，汽车产业链快速壮大，为经济发展注入强劲动能，"合肥—芜湖"双核带动、多点协同的产业 格局持续巩固，奇瑞、江淮、比亚迪、蔚来、大众安徽等整车企业集聚，超3100家规模以上零部件企业 协同发展。然而，链上众多零部件企业常面临融资流程长、抵押门槛高等难题，传统信贷模式难以适配 产业高速发展。面向"十五五"、抢抓关键期，中国工商银行安徽省分行（简称"工行安徽省分行"）持续 深化金融供给侧结构性改革，培育金融领域新质生产力，服务经济社会高质量发展，赋能安徽跑出汽 车"首位产业"加速度。 "十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。站在新的历史起点，为更好 发挥金融对经济的支撑作用，工行安徽省分行围绕区域空间生态与产业生态融合互促，因地制宜深化金 融改革创新，通过"数据+AI+业务"融合，构建"数字化、批量化、集约化"的汽车产业集群金融服务新模 式。 AI赋能：从"单点审贷"到"集群智投" 面对产业集群化发展新格局，工行安徽省分行创新运用"智贷通"数字工具，构建"产业链+大数据+人工 智能+流程优化"一体化综合服务模式。该模式以行内AI智能体为中心，依托多维数据融合分析与专业 团队深度协 ...

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 银行融出 5.6 万亿，创历史新高 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：跨年将至，资金面延续平稳 12 月 22-26 日，资金面维持均衡宽松。周一至周三（22-24 日）央行逆回购连 续净回笼，R001 依然稳步在 1.35%附近，DR001 也持续下破年内低位，由 1.27% 逐日下行至 1.26%。周四（25 日）起，银行类机构 7 天资金可跨年，DR007 快速 走升，单日上行 10bp，周五继续抬升 4bp，收于 1.52%。参考历史同期，14bp 的 价格升幅略高于 2023、2024 年 8、10bp 的水平，不过从绝对点位上看，当前 1.52%水平的跨年资金利率并不算太贵。此外，由于部分非银机构 29 日拆借 7 天资 金才可跨年，R007 上行幅度相对不大，仅较周内低点上行 2bp，收于 1.53%。 资金面连续稳定的背后，是银行端资金供给相对充裕。12 月 22-26 日，银行体 系日均净融出 5.45 万亿元（前一周为 4.90 ...

杠杆上行，大行保险买长 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 相关报告 证券研究报告/固收定期报告 2025 年 12 月 22 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 1、《大行增仓，基金久期回升》 2025-12-15 2、《大行买短，农商接长》2025-12-08 3、《基金、券商共振抛券》2025-12-01 报告摘要 分析师：严伶怡 本周（12.15-12.19）关注要点：本周资金利率分化，大行融出日均环比增加，基金小 幅加杠杆；存单到期增加，存单到期收益率曲线下移；现券成交来看，买盘主力来自 大行，增持 3Y 以内和 5-10Y 利率债为主，基金净买入规模减少，主要增持短端信用， 大保险继续增配 20-30Y 超长利率债，农商行抛利率债为主。 货币资金面 同业存单与票据 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 联系人：苏鸿婷 本周（12.15-12.19，下同）共有 6685 亿元逆回购到期。周一至周五央行分别投放逆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tax period funds remained loose this week, and the central bank's care for cross - year liquidity led to a significant decline in short - term interest rates, raising market expectations for interest rate cuts. The interest rate cut may occur in March - April 2026 [4][35][41] - The issuance of government bonds in 2025 is nearing completion. The net financing forecast for December treasury bonds is adjusted upwards to 335.2 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of local bonds in December is expected to be about 230 billion yuan. The supply pressure of local bonds in Q1 2026 may be slightly lower than that in Q1 2025 [6][56][59] - Next week, the net payment scale of government bonds will rise, but the exogenous disturbances in the capital market may decrease, and the loose liquidity state is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to whether the average value of DR001 in December can fall below 1.3% [9][45][69] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monetary Market 3.1.1 This Week's Capital Situation Review - The central bank's 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 1.1 billion yuan this week. On Monday, 80 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured, and the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, with an excess renewal of 200 billion yuan. Despite tax - period disturbances, funds remained loose, and DR001 was maintained at around 1.27% [3][15] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase oscillated upwards, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 0.4 trillion yuan to 8.48 trillion yuan compared to last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase continued to rise, approaching the historical high in early July. The net lending of large - scale banks oscillated and slightly declined, while that of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks oscillated and rose, especially joint - stock banks reaching a new high since August last year. The overall rigid net lending of banks also continued to rise. The rigid net lending of non - banks first decreased and then increased, with an overall slight decline. The capital gap index oscillated and declined [4][22] - The cross - year progress of funds this year is late. As of Friday, the cross - year progress of the inter - bank and exchange markets is only higher than that in 2024, and the gap with previous years is widening. The cross - year progress of the entire market is 7.6%, 5.5 percentage points lower than the average of 20 - 24 [31] - The short - term interest rates represented by 1 - year policy financial bonds and IRS ended a multi - quarter continuous oscillation and significantly declined, reflecting market expectations of a downward shift in the capital interest rate center and an increase in interest rate cut expectations [35] 3.1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - The net payment scale of government bonds will rise from 1.61 billion yuan this week to 366.6 billion yuan. The 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale will decrease from 668.5 billion yuan to 457.5 billion yuan. On December 25, 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature, and the central bank is expected to continue to renew it in excess [45][69] - The new shares of Hengdongguang on the Beijing Stock Exchange will be issued online on December 23, which may cause some disturbances to the exchange capital price from Tuesday to Wednesday. After the tax period, the exogenous disturbances in the capital market may decrease, and the loose liquidity state is expected to continue [9] 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate remained unchanged at 1.65% compared to December 12. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 2.5 BP to 1.64% compared to last week [70] - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased more than the maturity scale this week, with a net repayment scale of 69 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.5 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing scales of joint - stock banks, rural commercial banks, state - owned banks, and city commercial banks were 43.1 billion yuan, 22.2 billion yuan, - 119.7 billion yuan, and - 23 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 3 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 34%, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit increased by 2 percentage points to 17% compared to last week. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 868.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 196.2 billion yuan compared to this week [10][73] - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks increased compared to last week, while those of rural commercial banks and city commercial banks decreased. Except for state - owned banks with a relatively high issuance success rate, the others are near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [75] - The relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit continued to rise this week, reaching 40.5% on Friday, an increase of 6.7 percentage points compared to last week. The supply - demand index of 1 - year varieties decreased significantly, while those of other tenors continued to rise [83] 3.3 Bill Market - Bill interest rates first rose and then fell this week. As of December 19, the 3 - month bill interest rate of national joint - stock banks increased by 4 BP to 0.49% compared to December 12, and the 6 - month bill interest rate decreased by 1 BP to 0.89% [89] 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market oscillated strongly this week, and the spreads of credit bonds and perpetual bonds continued to widen. The willingness of large - scale banks to increase bond holdings weakened, especially for treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit within 1 year. They tended to reduce holdings of local bonds and policy financial bonds within 1 year, but the willingness to reduce holdings of perpetual bonds decreased, and they tended to increase holdings of commercial paper [92] - The overall willingness of trading - type institutions to increase bond holdings declined significantly. Among them, the willingness of fund companies and other products to increase holdings decreased significantly, the willingness of securities companies to reduce holdings increased slightly, and the willingness of other institutions to increase holdings increased [92]

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 年末存单利率或迎下行拐点 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：税期，资金面继续平稳 12月 15-19日，税期资金面依旧维持低位运行。周内来看，15日为税期首日， 2000 亿元 6M 买断式逆回购净投放落地，同时为保持资金利率稳定，央行在短期资 金投放上维持常规续作安排。尽管如此，税期期间隔夜利率 R001 始终维持在 1.34- 1.35%水平，7 天资金 R007 也基本稳定于 1.50%附近。 税期之后，跨年因素接替成为影响资金面的主要逻辑。18 日起拆借 14 天资金 可跨年，除了常规续作 7 天逆回购以外，央行连续两日额外投放 1000 亿元 14 天逆 回购，呵护跨年资金面，进一步推动了资金宽松预期。受此影响，18-19日 R014仅 小幅上行 7bp 至 1.62%，跨年压力整体可控。与此同时，隔夜与 7 天资金利率仍延 续此前稳态，日均波动不足 1bp，R001、R007 分别收于 1.35%、1.51%。 ►展望：年末存单利率或迎 ...

智通财经APP讯，兴证国际(06058)公布，公司间接全资附属公司CISI Investment自2025年12月4日至 2025年12月16日期间，于公开市场购买本金总额为1260万欧元(相当于约1.15亿港元)的票据，总代价为 约1258.64万欧元。票据发行人为中国三峡国际股份有限公司，固定年利率2.875%。 ...

兴证国际(06058)公布，公司间接全资附属公司CISI Investment自2025年12月4日至2025年12月16日期 间，于公开市场购买本金总额为1260万欧元(相当于约1.15亿港元)的票据，总代价为约1258.64万欧元。 票据发行人为中国三峡国际股份有限公司，固定年利率2.875%。 ...