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天桥起重:子公司票据逾期信息因系统时间差导致,不存在风险
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 08:18
上海票据交易所数据显示,截至6月末,天桥起重子公司株洲优瑞科有色装备有限公司存在200余万元票 据逾期余额。对此,从天桥起重方面了解到,优瑞科方面在票据到期当日已完成付款,逾期信息主要因 上票所关账的时间差导致,相关票据不存在逾期和信用风险。(银柿财经) ...
Q2货政报告重提“防空转”影响几何?
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-17 12:34
Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net withdrawal this week was CNY 414.9 billion, with a total of CNY 300 billion in net injections from reverse repos throughout the month[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased to CNY 8.15 trillion, with a notable drop on Friday[3] - The DR001 rate remained above 1.3%, indicating that expectations for a lower bound adjustment have not materialized[3] Credit and Financing Trends - New social financing in July was only CNY 1.1 trillion, significantly lower than the expected CNY 1.5 trillion, with a notable reliance on government bonds and direct corporate financing[3] - July saw the first negative growth in credit since 2005, with a decline of CNY 500 billion, despite a surge in bill financing exceeding CNY 800 billion[3] - The central bank's loan interest rates are expected to show a reduced year-on-year decline in Q3 due to lower base effects[3] Government Debt and Issuance - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was CNY 410.4 billion, expected to decrease to CNY 294.1 billion next week[4] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 reached CNY 575.9 billion, with special bonds at CNY 28.369 trillion[4] - The issuance of local government bonds is projected to accelerate, with a total of CNY 3.692 billion expected next week[4] Market Sentiment and Risks - The bond market showed weakness, with a notable reduction in non-bank financial institutions' holdings of certificates of deposit and financial bonds[3] - The central bank's cautious stance on further easing is reflected in its emphasis on preventing "capital turnover" and improving fund utilization efficiency[3] - Potential risks include monetary policy not meeting expectations and unexpected fluctuations in the funding environment[3]
流动性与机构行为跟踪:基金边际降久期
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 12:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (August 11 - 15), the capital interest rate increased, the average daily lending of large - scale banks rose month - on - month, and funds slightly reduced leverage. - The maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the maturity yields of most CDs with various tenors rose. - In the spot bond trading, the main buyers were money market funds, mainly increasing their holdings of CDs. Funds mainly net sold 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds, rural commercial banks increased their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds, insurance companies increased their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and large - scale banks increased their purchases of 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary Capital - **Open - market operations**: A total of 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank cumulatively injected 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, and 50 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases on Friday, with a net liquidity injection of 85.1 billion yuan for the whole week. [5][8] - **Capital price**: As of August 15, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.44%, 1.49%, 1.4%, and 1.48% respectively, up 9.78BP, 3.2BP, 9.03BP, and 5.47BP from August 8, and were at the 19%, 8%, 17%, and 3% historical percentiles respectively. [5][11] - **Large - scale bank lending**: From August 11 to 15, the total lending scale of large - scale banks was 24.54 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum of 5 trillion yuan and an average daily lending of 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 140 billion yuan from the previous week's average. [5][14] - **Pledged repurchase**: The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 8.15 trillion yuan and a daily maximum of 8.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.52% from the previous week's average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with an average daily proportion of 89.8%, a daily maximum of 90.6%, and a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week's average. As of August 15, it was at the 88.6% percentile. [5][16] 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and financing**: The issuance scale of CDs this week was basically the same as last week, but the net financing decreased. The total issuance was 774.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 300 million yuan from the previous week; the net financing was - 130.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 307.67 billion yuan from the previous week. [5][18] - **Maturity scale**: The maturity volume of CDs increased this week, with a total of 905.64 billion yuan, an increase of 307.37 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week (August 18 - 22), 794.72 billion yuan of CDs will mature. [18][23] - **Maturity yield**: As of August 15, the maturity yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs of AAA - rated commercial banks were 1.46%, 1.53%, 1.6%, 1.64%, and 1.64% respectively, up 1.1BP, - 0.5BP, 1.26BP, 1.76BP, and 2.25BP from August 8. [5][31] - **Bill interest rate**: As of August 15, the 3M direct - discount rate, 3M transfer - discount rate, 6M direct - discount rate, and 6M transfer - discount rate of national - owned stocks were 1.13%, 0.95%, 0.7%, and 0.63% respectively, down 11BP, 12BP, 7BP, and 7BP from August 8. [5][33] 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leverage ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio and the broad - based fund leverage ratio decreased slightly. As of August 15, the inter - bank total leverage ratio in the bond market decreased by 0.20 percentage points to 106.71% from August 8, at the 39.40% historical percentile since 2021. The bank, securities, insurance, and broad - based fund leverage ratios were 103.9%, 187.8%, 129.3%, and 104.9% respectively, with month - on - month changes of 0.26BP, - 10.62BP, 1.16BP, and - 0.19BP from August 8, and were at the 43%, 1%, 76%, and 20% historical percentiles respectively. [36][38] - **Duration adjustment**: Funds reduced duration, while rural commercial banks and insurance companies increased duration. As of August 15, the weighted average net - purchase duration (MA = 10) of funds was 0 years, a significant decrease from 4.23 years on August 8, at the 23% historical percentile; that of rural commercial banks was 3.26 years, turning positive from August 8, at the 82% historical percentile; that of insurance companies was 10.58 years, an increase from August 8, at the 77% historical percentile. [5][40]
银行资负跟踪20250817:防范空转,长债调整
CMS· 2025-08-17 05:35
证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 08 月 17 日 银行资负跟踪 20250817 防范空转,长债调整 总量研究/银行 推荐(维持) | | | wenxueyang@cmschina.com.cn 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值(十亿元) | 11078.3 | 11.3 | | 流通市值(十亿元) | 10489.1 | 11.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -6.5 11.6 33.3 相对表现 -11.1 4.9 7.6 资料来源:公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《每年到期贷款有多少?—银行 研思录 13》2025-08-15 2、《如何看待 7 月信贷和非银存款? —2025 年 7 月金融数据点评》 2025-08-14 3、《两项贴息政策总结和影响—政 策点评》2025-08-12 王先爽 S1090524100006 wangxi ...
流动性跟踪:税期扰动,之后或重回宽松
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-16 15:13
Group 1: Market Overview - The tax period has initiated, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity, with R001 remaining stable at 1.35% for 10 consecutive trading days[1] - On August 15, the central bank switched to a net injection of CNY 116 billion, with R001 rising by 9 basis points to 1.44%[1][11] - The CNEX liquidity sentiment index increased to 50-54 on August 14, indicating a shift in market sentiment[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Following the tax period, liquidity is expected to ease, with overnight rates likely returning to around OMO-5 basis points[2] - The government bond net payment decreased to CNY 2,641 billion, significantly lower than the previous week's CNY 4,604 billion[5][31] - The upcoming week (August 18-22) will see a total of CNY 9,318 billion maturing in the open market, including CNY 7,118 billion in reverse repos[3][20] Group 3: Interbank Market - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose slightly to 1.61%, up 1 basis point from the previous week[6][36] - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was CNY 7,747 billion, with a net financing of -CNY 1,318 billion[6][44] - The average maturity of interbank certificates of deposit extended to 8.1 months, compared to 6.4 months the previous week[6][45]
流动性:流动性税期资金波动怎么看?
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-16 12:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's operations in August are more optimistic than in June. In terms of timing, the purchase - style reverse repurchase was timely, and there was better coordination with fiscal policies. In terms of quantity, the net purchase - style reverse repurchase in August was more than in June, and there was no withdrawal of 6 - month liquidity. The net injection during the tax period was also higher than in June. The funds' central price has declined compared to June [3][16]. - Looking forward, considering the historical low of credit in July, the negative month - on - month growth of social retail and investment in July, the downward trend of bill rates, and the continuous increase in government bond issuance, the central bank will maintain a suitable financial environment, and liquidity can remain optimistic. There is no need to worry about "preventing idle capital circulation" as the central bank focuses on standardizing bank loans rather than raising capital rates [3][21]. - For certificates of deposit (CDs), the net financing of state - owned banks' CDs turned negative again last week. Under the central bank's support, the supply side is not a constraint. The secondary - market trading volume has continued to shrink, and yields have fluctuated within a narrow range. Institutions mostly adopt a configuration strategy. The supply - side pressure is relatively limited, and considering the low - level funds, the configuration value of CDs above 1.65% is not low. CDs may perform well when risk appetite declines and interest rates return to the fundamental logic [23]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Keep an Optimistic Judgment on Funds - Last week, except for the last trading day, the weighted DR001 funds price remained at 1.31%, and state - owned banks' net lending remained high. The bond market adjusted, non - banks reduced leverage, and the overall stratification was at a low level [9]. - There are two key points to note in the past week: First, during the monetary - fiscal coordination period, the central bank maintains relatively stable liquidity, and more optimistic capital conditions are more likely to occur during the initial issuance of long - term bonds. Second, the marginal tightening of funds on August 15 was a normal tax - period fluctuation. Medium - and long - term funds remained stable and loose, and based on the fundamentals and the central bank's operating style, one can remain optimistic about funds [15][16]. 3.2 Weekly Funds and CDs Tracking and Key Point Reminders - This week (August 11 - 15), the central bank's OMO had a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan, with 7 - day OMO funds of 7118 billion yuan issued and 11267 billion yuan withdrawn. There was a 5000 - billion - yuan 6 - month purchase - style reverse repurchase operation. The government bond had a net financing of 2069 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 97439 billion yuan and a net financing progress of 70.3%, and a net payment of 4344 billion yuan. Large banks' bill - buying efforts remained strong, and bill rates generally declined. The RMB was stable against the US dollar, and the central bank's counter - cyclical regulation demand was stable. In terms of funds, state - owned banks' lending ability was strong, and the leverage of some institutions changed [29]. - Next week (August 18 - 22), short - term funds of 7118 billion yuan will mature, and there will be 9000 - billion - yuan purchase - style reverse repurchase and 3000 - billion - yuan MLF maturities. The government bond's net financing will be 4979 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 102418 billion yuan and a net financing progress of 73.9%, and a net payment of 2641 billion yuan. Attention should be paid to the central bank's support during the initial issuance of long - term government bonds on August 22 [29][30]. 3.3 Central Bank: 6 - Month Purchase - Style Reverse Repurchase Operation Implemented - This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of short - term funds and carried out a 5000 - billion - yuan 6 - month purchase - style reverse repurchase operation. The OMO had a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan, with 7 - day OMO funds of 7118 billion yuan issued and 11267 billion yuan withdrawn. As of August 15, the reverse repurchase balance was 7118 billion yuan, down 4149 billion yuan from August 8, still higher than the seasonal level [32]. - Next week, 7118 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 9000 - billion - yuan purchase - style reverse repurchase and 3000 - billion - yuan MLF maturities in August [34]. 3.4 Government Bonds: Net Payment Declined to 264.1 Billion Yuan - This week, the government bond's net financing was 206.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 9743.9 billion yuan and a net financing progress of 70.3%, and a net payment of 434.4 billion yuan. Next week, the net financing will be 497.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 10241.8 billion yuan and a net financing progress of 73.9%, still at a seasonal high, and a net payment of 264.1 billion yuan [37]. - Structurally, the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated. The net financing progress of national bonds is 72.0% (higher than the historical average), and the issuance progress of new local government general bonds, new local government special bonds, and special refinancing bonds are 73.0% (lower than the historical average), 69.0% (lower than the historical average), and 97.3% respectively [39]. 3.5 Bills: Large Banks' Bill - Buying Efforts Remained Strong, and Rates Generally Declined - This week, large banks' bill - buying efforts remained strong, and bill rates generally declined. As of August 15, the 3 - month and 6 - month national - share direct and transfer bill rates were 1.13%, 1.00%, 0.70%, and 0.68% respectively, down 11BP, 12BP, 7BP, and 7BP from August 8 [47][48]. 3.6 Exchange Rates: Stable During the Statistical Period, with the RMB Spot Exchange Rate at 7.18 - This week, the RMB was stable against the US dollar, with the USDCNH/USDCNY swap points around 1600/1700 points. The carry - trade strategy for short - term bonds by foreign investors has limited value. The central bank's counter - cyclical regulation demand was stable, with the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB dropping to 7.14 and the depreciation upper limit around 7.28, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 314.68 pip [50][52]. 3.7 Market Funds Supply and Demand: State - Owned Banks' Lending Continued to Increase - The central bank's second - round purchase - style reverse repurchase operation strengthened state - owned banks' lending ability. The bond market adjusted, money market funds increased lending, and non - banks reduced borrowing. The average daily lending of the banking system was 4.28 trillion yuan, and that of national - share banks increased to 5.10 trillion yuan. The average daily lending of state - owned banks recovered to 5.14 trillion yuan, while that of joint - stock banks decreased to - 0.04 trillion yuan [55]. - The average daily lending of (money market funds + wealth management subsidiaries) increased to 1.21 trillion yuan. Major non - bank institutions reduced borrowing. The leverage ratios of the inter - bank market, commercial banks, and insurance companies increased, while those of broad - based funds and securities companies decreased [59][63]. - In terms of funds prices, the increase in the R series > the DR series > the Shibor series > the GC series, indicating tight funds for banks and non - banks and relatively stable funds for money market funds. The term stratification narrowed, and the institutional stratification was basically flat, showing a mitigation of market stratification [69]. 3.8 CDs: Net Financing Turned Negative, and the Buying Efforts of Money Market Funds and Joint - Stock Banks Increased 3.8.1 Primary Issuance Market: The Success Rate of Fund - Raising Improved, and the Overall Net Financing of CDs Turned Negative - This week, the net financing of CDs was - 131.1 billion yuan, and the average issuance rate increased by about 1BP. In the next three weeks, 794.72 billion yuan, 751.78 billion yuan, and 330.05 billion yuan of CDs will mature respectively. This week, the issuance scale of national - share banks increased, but the net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of CDs increased, and the success rate of long - term CD fund - raising improved [72][75]. - In terms of different terms, the weighted issuance duration of CDs increased to 8.12 months. The issuance proportion of 9 - month and 12 - month CDs increased significantly, and the success rate of fund - raising for most terms improved. The issuance rates of CDs of all terms decreased to varying degrees, with a larger decline in short - term national - share banks [78][83]. 3.8.2 Secondary Trading Market: Trading Activity Declined, and the Buying Efforts of Money Market Funds Increased Significantly - In terms of quantity, the trading activity of CDs continued to decline this week, and the yields increased. Joint - stock banks, money market funds, and other non - non - bank institutions had strong buying, while other institutions mostly bought at a steady pace. The 1 - year AAA CD yield reached 1.6400% [85][87].
隔夜下限继续调降存单需求显著回升
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-10 11:00
Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net withdrawal this week was CNY 536.5 billion, with an additional CNY 700 billion in 3M reverse repos on Friday[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased to CNY 8.11 trillion, with a peak of CNY 8.4 trillion on Wednesday[4] - The overnight interest rate (DR001) has seen a downward adjustment, with the lower limit dropping to 1.25% from 1.3%[3][20] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The 1Y Shibor rate decreased by 0.7 basis points to 1.64%, while the 1-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit secondary rate fell by 1.75 basis points to 1.6175%[4] - The net financing scale of interbank certificates of deposit rose to CNY 192 billion, with state-owned banks contributing CNY 74.4 billion[4] Government Bond Issuance - This week, the actual net payment for government bonds was CNY 370.6 billion, with an expected increase to CNY 410.1 billion next week[22] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds reached CNY 542.6 billion, while new special bonds totaled CNY 28,179 billion[22] Future Expectations - The central bank is expected to maintain a stable monetary policy, with the lower limit of DR001 projected to decrease to 1.2% by September[21] - The government bond issuance forecast for August and September remains unchanged at CNY 2.5 trillion and CNY 2.1 trillion, respectively[31]
流动性跟踪:隔夜利率重回1.3%
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-02 13:41
Liquidity Overview - The overnight interest rate has returned to 1.3% as of August 2, 2025, with a stable liquidity environment across the month-end period from July 28 to August 1[1] - The central bank's net short-term reverse repos amounted to 1.32 trillion yuan during the month-end, supporting liquidity needs[1] - The 7-day funding rate decreased to 1.40% in early August, indicating a loosening of liquidity conditions[2] Monetary Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting in July emphasized maintaining ample liquidity, with the central bank reaffirming a moderately loose monetary policy in its August 1 meeting[2] - The market is not expected to face similar tightening of funding rates as seen in January to March 2025[2] Market Trends - The bill market saw a significant drop in rates, with the 1-month bill rate falling to 0.20%, down 82 basis points from the previous week, indicating weak credit demand[4] - Major banks recorded a net purchase of 592.8 billion yuan in bills for July 2025, a historical monthly high compared to 124.1 billion yuan in July 2024[4] Government Debt Activity - Government debt net payments increased to 339 billion yuan from 287.6 billion yuan the previous week, driven by a substantial rise in national bond payments[5] - The planned issuance of government bonds for August 4-8 is set at 578.5 billion yuan, with national bonds accounting for 413 billion yuan[5] Interbank Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - The weighted issuance rate for CDs was 1.63%, up 2 basis points week-on-week, but showed a decline to 1.69% post-month-end[6] - The upcoming week (August 4-8) will see 583.8 billion yuan in CDs maturing, indicating increased maturity pressure compared to the previous week[6] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in liquidity and adjustments in monetary policy due to economic data exceeding expectations or shifts in overseas monetary policies[7]
流动性收紧背后,央行态度变了吗?
Xinda Securities· 2025-07-27 05:41
Monetary Market Overview - The central bank conducted a net liquidity withdrawal of 70.5 billion CNY through OMO this week, while on Friday, it injected 200 billion CNY via MLF[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos rose by 0.45 trillion CNY to 7.70 trillion CNY, although it fell below the previous week by Friday[3] - The funding gap index dropped to -5012 on Tuesday but rebounded to -764 on Thursday, before falling again to -918 on Friday, remaining above last week's -3145[3] Bond Market Insights - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was 271 billion CNY, with cumulative new general bonds issued in 2025 reaching 517.4 billion CNY and new special bonds at 2.5944 trillion CNY[4] - The bond market experienced increased volatility, with concerns about a potential shift in monetary policy due to the central bank's actions[21] - The issuance scale of government bonds in July was 2.44 trillion CNY, with a net financing scale of 1.25 trillion CNY, which is approximately 150 billion CNY lower than expected[4] Institutional Behavior - Large banks' net financing fell below 4 trillion CNY, while the overall rigid net financing from banks reached a new low since late May[3] - Non-bank rigid financing saw a decrease followed by an increase, remaining above last week, with money market funds and other products showing an upward trend[3] - The cross-month progress in the interbank market was 19.9%, slightly below the 20-24 year average by 0.3 percentage points, but higher than the same period in 2022 and 2023[19]
税期结束后DR001能回到1.3%吗?
Xinda Securities· 2025-07-20 09:36
Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank injected a total of 1.2011 trillion yuan through OMO and MLF this week, with a reverse repo of 1.4 trillion yuan on Tuesday[3] - DR001 rose to 1.53% on Tuesday due to tax payments and government bond payments, but stabilized around 1.45% after the tax period ended[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.97 trillion yuan to 7.24 trillion yuan compared to last week[3] Government Debt and Financing - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was 428.8 billion yuan, expected to decrease to 269.9 billion yuan next week[4] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 reached 494.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds at 2.3889 trillion yuan[4] - The forecast for July government bond issuance was slightly adjusted down to 1.22 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of approximately 460 billion yuan[4] Market Sentiment and Expectations - The central bank emphasized that the effects of implemented monetary policies will continue to manifest, indicating a reduced impetus for further loosening in the short term[3] - The central bank's recent decision to remove the freezing of collateral for bond repos may signal a potential restart of bond purchases, although the impact is expected to be limited[3] - Despite expectations of gradual liquidity easing post-tax period, DR001 may not return to the early July low of 1.3%[3]