Core Viewpoint - The "Condom Paradox," which suggested that condom sales increase during economic downturns, has failed in recent years, with significant declines in sales observed globally and in China [4][5][6]. Industry Overview - The global largest condom manufacturer, Karex Berhad, experienced a 40% drop in sales in 2020, marking its first loss since its listing, contrary to earlier optimistic predictions [5][13]. - The Chinese condom market is projected to decline from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% [5][16]. - The overall condom market in China has shrunk by 25% from 2020 to 2024, with an average annual decline of about 6% [16]. Market Dynamics - The condom industry is facing a comprehensive downturn, affecting upstream production, midstream brands, and downstream sales [8]. - Major brands like Durex have seen a drastic drop in sales, with Durex's online sales in China plummeting from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021 [14]. - Over 78,000 condom-related companies have closed between 2020 and 2024, averaging 17,300 closures per year [15]. Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a reduction in interpersonal interactions and a shift towards alternative contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, which have seen significant growth [19][20]. - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, impacting the demand for condoms in non-home settings [19]. - The economic pressures have led to a decrease in young people's willingness to invest in intimate relationships, further contributing to the decline in condom sales [23][25]. Emerging Trends - In contrast to the declining condom market, the adult products industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size surpassing 200 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market [29][31]. - The adult products market has seen a 24% growth in the past five years, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-pleasure products [29]. - The rise of female consumers in the adult products market is notable, with 70% of late-night orders coming from women, reflecting a change in attitudes towards sexual wellness and self-exploration [46][47].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "condom paradox," which suggests that condom sales increase during economic downturns. However, recent trends show a significant decline in condom sales, contradicting this historical pattern, indicating a broader shift in consumer behavior and desires [4][5][14]. Group 1: Condom Market Decline - The condom industry is experiencing a comprehensive downturn, with upstream production, midstream brands, and downstream sales all shrinking. This indicates a significant industry-wide recession [6][10]. - Karex Berhad, the world's largest condom manufacturer, reported a 40% drop in sales from 2020 to 2022, leading to its first-ever loss since going public. The company had to pivot some production lines to medical gloves to cope with the crisis [9][12]. - In China, the total sales revenue of the condom market is projected to decline from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17% decrease [4][12]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a reduction in interpersonal interactions and a shift in sexual behavior, with many consumers opting for alternative contraceptive methods such as implants and oral pills, which have seen significant growth [13][14]. - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, which has negatively impacted the demand for condoms typically used outside the home [12]. - The rise of single-person households, with over 297 million single individuals in China, reflects a cultural shift where many choose to prioritize personal fulfillment over traditional relationships [25][28]. Group 3: Growth of Adult Products - In contrast to the declining condom market, the adult products industry is booming, with the market size expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, making it over 13 times larger than the condom market [19][20]. - The adult products sector has seen a significant increase in consumer engagement, with a 90-day repurchase rate of 38% for adult products, indicating a strong shift in consumer preferences [21][22]. - The marketing focus for adult products has shifted from pleasing partners to self-acceptance and personal enjoyment, reflecting a broader societal change in attitudes towards sexuality [34][35].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Japan's implementation of a "single tax" which is actually a fee deducted from all residents to fund the "Child and Childcare Support Fund" starting April 2026, affecting both citizens and foreigners [1][2] - The tax is structured based on income levels, with higher earners paying more, up to a maximum of 19,800 yen, leading to public perception of it as a "single tax" rather than a "fertility tax" [2][3] - Japan is facing a demographic crisis with a projected drop in newborns below 700,000 by 2024, 15 years earlier than previously expected, alongside a record high death toll of over 1.6 million [3][6] Group 2 - The United Nations predicts that if Japan's birth rate does not improve, the population could shrink to 75 million by 2100, exacerbated by an aging population where 29.3% are over 65 years old [6][8] - The combination of low birth rates and an aging population poses significant challenges to Japan's social security system, with various government initiatives failing to stimulate birth rates [8][9] - The reluctance of young people to marry and have children is attributed to economic pressures and a cultural shift towards individualism, with high rates of lifelong singlehood among both men (28%) and women (18%) [9][11] Group 3 - Despite Japan's extensive support for families, including a one-time childbirth allowance of 500,000 yen and various educational subsidies, young people still feel financially burdened by the costs of raising children [9][10] - The perception of children as a financial liability, coupled with stagnant wages and rising living costs, contributes to the declining birth rate [11][16] - The current labor market dynamics show a disparity in wages between formal and informal employment, with average monthly salaries for formal employees at 330,000 yen compared to 230,000 yen for informal workers, further complicating the financial landscape for young families [16][19]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe population crisis, prompting the government to implement a new "Child and Childcare Support Fund" starting April 2026, which will levy an annual tax ranging from 2,400 to 12,000 yen (approximately 120 to 600 RMB) to subsidize families with children [3][5]. Group 1: Population Crisis in Japan - Japan's total population has been declining for 14 consecutive years, with the birth rate dropping below 700,000 last year, marking a new low [9][10]. - The Japanese population, excluding foreigners, has shrunk to 120 million, decreasing by nearly 900,000 in just one year [10][12]. - The country has the lowest birth rate globally and the highest aging rate, with a significant proportion of single individuals [13][14]. Group 2: Government Response and Historical Context - The new tax is perceived as a "universal fertility tax" rather than a "single tax," as it applies to all individuals who pay health insurance, regardless of whether they have children [5][6]. - Historically, various nations have implemented similar taxes on single individuals, including ancient Greece and Rome, as well as the Soviet Union, which had a "childless tax" until 1992 [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges in Stimulating Birth Rates - Despite over 66 trillion yen (approximately 3 trillion RMB) invested in fertility incentives over the past 30 years, Japan's birth rate has not improved significantly [19][24]. - Current support includes a one-time childbirth subsidy of 500,000 yen (about 25,000 RMB) and annual childcare subsidies of 120,000 to 180,000 yen for children aged 0-3 [20][21]. - The societal trend of declining marriage and increasing single-person households complicates the situation, with predictions indicating that by 2035, half of the population aged 15 and above may be single [17][26].