以下文章来源于i黑马 ，作者江南春 i黑马 . 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 江南春 分众传媒董事长 黑马导师 整个社会都在喊没钱了，为什么这些公司反而年赚百亿？ 日本"失落 30年的秘密" ， 就在这八个行业里面 。 低欲望社会 ， 不等于没机会。 消费分级 ， 需求迁移 ， 才是最大的商业机遇 。 当人们不买房子，不追奢侈品的时候，钱都流向了哪里？ 第一，二 手经济 日本二手奢侈品市场，以 大黑屋 为代表，收入暴涨。 在中国， 红布林 、 胖虎， 同样业务大涨。 买不起爱马仕、 LV ， 但 抢着买二手。 但在日常消费品领域， 闲鱼 日活破亿， 转转 的 GMV 也大幅飙升。 闲置不是垃圾，是流动的黄金。 第二 ， 宠物经济 年轻人不太生孩子，但可以给猫买高级的罐头。 日本 Inaba 靠猫粮上市，中国乖宝 （ 中宠 ） 股价强劲 。 诚实一口、凯锐思、 疯狂小狗、 伯纳天纯、比瑞吉、 网易严选、 卫仕 等宠物品牌，销量持续攀升。 宠物不仅是主粮零食营养品，以 新瑞鹏 为代表的宠物医院，以 泰 淘气 为 代表 的宠物益生菌 、 保健品 ， 都大幅飙升 。 第三 ， 成人护理 日本尤妮佳 ， 靠纸尿裤翻身。 日 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards second-hand goods [6][7][8][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With declining birth rates, young people are investing more in pets, leading to a boom in pet food and healthcare products. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend [11][12][14][15]. - **Adult Care Products**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing demand for adult care products in China, with companies like Kexin showing potential for growth [16][17][18]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased sales of sugar-free beverages and functional drinks in both Japan and China, with brands like Suntory and Dongpeng gaining traction [21][22]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, including collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, remains strong, with companies like Jinbo Biological achieving significant market valuations [23][25]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands like Snow Peak in Japan and various Chinese brands experiencing rapid sales growth, as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic constraints [25][26][27]. - **Emotional Economy**: Brands that provide emotional comfort, such as Labubu and Rio, are gaining popularity, reflecting a consumer willingness to spend on small pleasures even in tough times [28][29][30]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience products, such as frozen foods and smart home appliances, is increasing as younger generations prioritize time-saving solutions [33][35][36]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article emphasizes that the current low-desire economic environment does not equate to a lack of opportunities. Instead, it suggests that businesses that can identify and invest in counter-cyclical sectors will emerge as winners [39].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in Japan and China [3][4]. - It identifies eight key sectors that are capitalizing on changing consumer behaviors and preferences, suggesting that a low-desire society does not equate to a lack of opportunities [4][5]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, exemplified by companies like Daikokuya, has seen significant revenue growth. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar success [6][7][8]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, spending on pets has surged. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are benefiting from this trend, with various pet brands seeing continuous sales growth [12][13][14][15][16]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating that aging populations can create substantial economic opportunities rather than being a burden [17][18][19]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased demand for products like sugar-free tea and functional beverages in both Japan and China, reflecting a broader trend in post-pandemic consumer behavior [21][22]. Group 2: Emerging Consumer Trends - **Beauty Economy**: Despite economic constraints, spending on beauty products like collagen supplements remains high, with brands like Weimei and U like achieving significant sales [23][24][25][26]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: Companies in the outdoor equipment sector, such as Snow Peak in Japan and various Chinese brands, are thriving as consumers seek outdoor experiences [29][30][31][32]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience products, such as frozen foods and smart home appliances, is rising as younger generations prioritize time-saving solutions [39][40][42]. - **Lazy Economy**: The trend towards convenience is evident in the growth of products that save time, indicating that in a low-desire economy, time-saving may be more valuable than cost-saving [42][43][44].

Group 1 - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that are capitalizing on changing consumer behaviors and preferences [1][4] - The second-hand economy is booming, with companies like Hongbulin and Panghu experiencing significant growth as consumers shift towards purchasing second-hand luxury goods [1] - The pet economy is on the rise, with brands like Guobao and Inaba seeing strong sales as consumers prioritize spending on pet products over traditional family expenses [1][3] Group 2 - The adult care market is expanding, particularly in China, where products like adult diapers are expected to see substantial growth, similar to trends observed in Japan [1][3] - Health food and beverage sectors are benefiting from changing demographics and increased health awareness, with brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun gaining traction in the market [3] - The beauty and aesthetics market remains robust, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving significant sales, indicating a persistent consumer desire for self-improvement [5] Group 3 - Outdoor and leisure products are experiencing increased demand, with brands like Kailas and Camel seeing rapid sales growth as consumers seek outdoor experiences [7] - The emotional economy is thriving, with brands like Labubu and Rio catering to consumers' desires for emotional fulfillment and low-key indulgence [7] - The convenience economy is growing, driven by younger generations' preference for time-saving solutions, with brands like Anjiyuan and Kewo Si capitalizing on the demand for frozen foods and smart home appliances [9]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for China [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Opportunities - The article identifies eight key industries that are experiencing growth despite a low-desire society, highlighting that consumer demand is shifting rather than disappearing [4][5]. - The second-hand economy is booming, with examples like Japan's "Daikokuya" and China's "Hongbulin" and "Panghu" seeing significant revenue increases as consumers opt for second-hand luxury goods [6][7][8][9]. - The pet economy is flourishing, with brands like "Inaba" in Japan and "Guibao" in China witnessing strong sales, as younger generations prioritize spending on pets over traditional family structures [11][12][13][14][15]. Group 2: Health and Wellness Trends - The adult care market is expanding, with Japan's "Unicharm" leading the adult diaper segment, which has surpassed $10 billion in market size, indicating a potential growth area in China [16][17][18]. - Health food and beverage sectors are rising due to changing demographics and increased health awareness, with brands like "Oriental Leaf" and "Jianchun" gaining traction in the post-pandemic era [21][22]. Group 3: Beauty and Lifestyle - The beauty economy is thriving, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving significant sales, reflecting a consumer desire for affordable beauty solutions [23][25]. - Outdoor and leisure activities are gaining popularity, with brands like "Snow Peak" in Japan and various Chinese outdoor brands experiencing rapid sales growth, as consumers seek experiences over material possessions [25][26][27]. Group 4: Emotional and Convenience Economies - The emotional economy is highlighted through the success of brands like "Labubu" and "Rio," which cater to consumers' desires for comfort and enjoyment during challenging times [28][29][30]. - The convenience economy is on the rise, with frozen food brands and smart home appliances addressing the needs of younger generations who have less time for cooking [33][35][36]. Group 5: Strategic Planning and Future Outlook - The article concludes by urging businesses to adapt their strategies in light of these emerging trends, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning and resource allocation to thrive in a low-desire economy [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating significant profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and China's evolving consumer behavior [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer demand is shifting towards different sectors [4]. - The article identifies eight key industries that are capitalizing on changing consumer preferences, highlighting the potential for growth in these areas [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, exemplified by "Daikokuya," has seen a surge in revenue, mirroring trends in China with platforms like "Hongbulin" and "Panghu" experiencing significant growth [6][7]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, spending on pets has increased, with brands like "Inaba" in Japan and "Guobao" in China seeing strong stock performance [12][13][14]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing demand driven by an aging population [17][18]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased sales of sugar-free beverages and functional drinks, with brands like "Oriental Leaf" and "Dongpeng" gaining traction in China [21]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products remains strong, with high-priced collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving significant sales [23][25]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: Companies in the outdoor equipment sector, such as "Snow Peak" in Japan, are thriving, reflecting a growing interest in outdoor activities [29][31]. - **Lazy Economy**: The trend towards convenience has boosted the frozen food market and smart home appliances, as consumers seek to save time [39][40]. - **Mental Well-being**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and lifestyle brands, are gaining popularity, indicating a shift in consumer spending priorities [34][35]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that the current economic climate presents unique opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors, highlighting the importance of recognizing and acting on these trends [44].

Core Viewpoint - The "Condom Paradox," which suggested that condom sales increase during economic downturns, has failed in recent years, with significant declines in sales observed globally and in China [4][5][6]. Industry Overview - The global largest condom manufacturer, Karex Berhad, experienced a 40% drop in sales in 2020, marking its first loss since its listing, contrary to earlier optimistic predictions [5][13]. - The Chinese condom market is projected to decline from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% [5][16]. - The overall condom market in China has shrunk by 25% from 2020 to 2024, with an average annual decline of about 6% [16]. Market Dynamics - The condom industry is facing a comprehensive downturn, affecting upstream production, midstream brands, and downstream sales [8]. - Major brands like Durex have seen a drastic drop in sales, with Durex's online sales in China plummeting from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021 [14]. - Over 78,000 condom-related companies have closed between 2020 and 2024, averaging 17,300 closures per year [15]. Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a reduction in interpersonal interactions and a shift towards alternative contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, which have seen significant growth [19][20]. - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, impacting the demand for condoms in non-home settings [19]. - The economic pressures have led to a decrease in young people's willingness to invest in intimate relationships, further contributing to the decline in condom sales [23][25]. Emerging Trends - In contrast to the declining condom market, the adult products industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size surpassing 200 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market [29][31]. - The adult products market has seen a 24% growth in the past five years, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-pleasure products [29]. - The rise of female consumers in the adult products market is notable, with 70% of late-night orders coming from women, reflecting a change in attitudes towards sexual wellness and self-exploration [46][47].

Group 1: Marriage and Family Trends - The number of marriage registrations in 2024 is 6.106 million pairs, a decrease of 1.574 million pairs or 20.5% from the previous year, marking the lowest level since 1980 [2] - The marriage rate has dropped to 4.3‰, with over 240 million single adults, indicating a trend of young people delaying marriage due to economic pressures and high living costs [2][5] - The demand for wedding-related services has decreased significantly, with wedding orders down by 40% compared to five years ago, leading to the closure of many wedding-related businesses [2] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Sentiment - Overall consumer spending is declining, with the 618 shopping festival experiencing its first negative growth, and a significant drop in the consumption confidence index to 88.5 points, the lowest in ten years [4][5] - 62% of individuals aged 25 to 35 are only purchasing necessities, with discretionary spending dropping from 28% to 19% [4] - The average monthly savings rate is 35%, and there is a notable decrease in the use of credit card installments by 10% [4] Group 3: Emerging Consumption Trends - Five new consumption sectors are thriving despite the overall decline in traditional consumption: pet economy (300.2 billion), outdoor sports (over 400 billion), aromatherapy (12 billion), health and wellness (80 billion), and emotional economy (1200 billion) [9][11][13] - The pet economy is growing at 7.5%, with 80 million pet-owning households, while the outdoor sports sector has seen a rise in new participants, reaching 520 million [9][11] - The emotional economy, driven by trends in collectibles and toys, is projected to grow significantly, with blind box sales expected to reach 58 billion by 2025 [13][15] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The shift in consumer spending from traditional family-oriented purchases to individual experiences is evident, with a focus on emotional and experiential value [7][15] - The total market size of the five emerging sectors exceeds one trillion, indicating a robust potential for growth in these areas [15][17] - The trend of low desire for traditional consumption is not indicative of a lack of spending power but rather a shift towards more meaningful and emotionally resonant purchases [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "condom paradox," where condom sales typically increase during economic downturns, but recent trends show a significant decline in sales, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and desires amidst economic pressures [3][4][12]. Group 1: Condom Market Trends - The condom industry is experiencing a comprehensive decline across the supply chain, with upstream rubber supply shrinking, midstream brand performance dropping, and downstream sales remaining sluggish, indicating a harsh industry winter [5][6]. - Karex Berhad, the world's largest condom manufacturer, saw a 40% drop in sales from 2020 to 2022, leading to a shift in production towards medical gloves [8]. - In China, the total sales revenue of condoms is projected to decrease from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17% decline [3][12]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Durex's sales in China plummeted from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021, with its market share dropping to 29.3% by 2024 [9]. - Jissbon, another major brand, has also reported declining market share and sales since 2022, with over 78,000 condom-related companies shutting down between 2020 and 2024 [11]. - The overall condom market in China has contracted by 25% from 208 billion yuan in 2020 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual decline of about 6% [11][12]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced hotel occupancy rates and the rise of alternative contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, which have seen significant growth [12][13]. - The economic pressures have led to a decrease in young people's willingness to invest in intimate relationships, as they prioritize financial stability over romantic engagements [13][14]. - The shift in consumer preferences is evident as the demand for sexual wellness products has increased, with the adult products market in China projected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market [19][20]. Group 4: Rise of Adult Products - The adult products industry has seen a remarkable growth rate of 24% over the past five years, with a market size that is over 13 times larger than that of condoms [19]. - The user base for adult products is increasingly female, with 70% of late-night orders coming from women, indicating a shift in consumer demographics and preferences [24]. - The marketing focus for adult products has transitioned from pleasing partners to self-acceptance and personal enjoyment, reflecting a broader cultural shift towards individual sexual empowerment [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "condom paradox," which suggests that condom sales increase during economic downturns. However, recent trends show a significant decline in condom sales, contradicting this historical pattern, indicating a broader shift in consumer behavior and desires [4][5][14]. Group 1: Condom Market Decline - The condom industry is experiencing a comprehensive downturn, with upstream production, midstream brands, and downstream sales all shrinking. This indicates a significant industry-wide recession [6][10]. - Karex Berhad, the world's largest condom manufacturer, reported a 40% drop in sales from 2020 to 2022, leading to its first-ever loss since going public. The company had to pivot some production lines to medical gloves to cope with the crisis [9][12]. - In China, the total sales revenue of the condom market is projected to decline from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17% decrease [4][12]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a reduction in interpersonal interactions and a shift in sexual behavior, with many consumers opting for alternative contraceptive methods such as implants and oral pills, which have seen significant growth [13][14]. - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, which has negatively impacted the demand for condoms typically used outside the home [12]. - The rise of single-person households, with over 297 million single individuals in China, reflects a cultural shift where many choose to prioritize personal fulfillment over traditional relationships [25][28]. Group 3: Growth of Adult Products - In contrast to the declining condom market, the adult products industry is booming, with the market size expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, making it over 13 times larger than the condom market [19][20]. - The adult products sector has seen a significant increase in consumer engagement, with a 90-day repurchase rate of 38% for adult products, indicating a strong shift in consumer preferences [21][22]. - The marketing focus for adult products has shifted from pleasing partners to self-acceptance and personal enjoyment, reflecting a broader societal change in attitudes towards sexuality [34][35].