一边是"存钱不赚钱"的现实，一边是"疯狂存钱"的热潮，这种矛盾背后，是否藏着不可忽视的危机？30年前日本从利率下行到零利率、负利率的演变，或许 能给我们一些启示。 上世纪90年代初，日本泡沫经济破裂，股市、楼市崩盘，经济从"失落的十年"一路滑向"失落的三十年"。为了刺激经济，日本政府开启了漫长的"零利率"甚 至"负利率"时代。然而，与经济学教科书相悖的是，低利率并未能有效刺激消费和投资，反而催生了一个独特的"低欲望社会"现象。 日本当时出现了哪些值得我们警惕的现象呢？ 一方面是心态的转变，泡沫破裂摧毁了"终身雇佣"和"年功序列"的神话，收入增长停滞，失业阴影笼罩。曾经坚信"奋斗就能致富"的一代人，价值观彻底崩 塌。人们不再热衷于借贷消费、投资未来，而是选择"无债一身轻"和"现金为王"。储蓄，不再是为了增值，而是为了"活下去"的安全感。 另一方面是消费萎缩与通货紧缩的恶性循环。企业发现商品卖不动了，于是降价促销；民众看到物价下跌，更倾向于推迟消费，等待明天更便宜的价格。这 就形成了一个自我强化的"通缩螺旋"。整个社会经济活动趋于停滞，如同一潭死水。 而随之而来"低欲望"成为普遍现象，年轻人目睹了父辈在泡沫时期的 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in sales for Durex and the broader sexual health industry, attributing it to a societal shift towards lower desire and changing consumer behaviors [2][3] - It identifies five high-growth sectors that have emerged as alternatives to traditional sexual health products, reflecting the evolving needs of consumers in a low-desire society [4][20] Group 1: Decline in Traditional Markets - Durex's sales halved in 2020, with the entire industry experiencing a 40% decline, and marriage rates dropping by 20% [2] - The overall e-commerce sales during the 618 shopping festival saw a negative growth of 7%, and the Double Eleven event has not reported results for four consecutive years [3] Group 2: Emerging Growth Sectors - The pet consumption market is projected to reach 302 billion yuan in 2024, with an average of one pet for every three young people [4] - Spending on pets has surpassed that of the maternal and infant sector, with a surge in new products such as pet delivery services and smart pet gadgets [5] - The "Endorphin Economy" has seen a rise in sports participation, with 200 million new sports enthusiasts in China over the past decade, leading to increased sales for brands like Asics and New Balance [8] - The fragrance market is growing at a rate of 10% annually, with a market size of 850 million USD in 2023, driven by brands like Aesop and Le Labo [8] - Emotional fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) are gaining traction, characterized by low prices and quick decision-making, providing immediate emotional satisfaction [11][12][14] - The "Self-Rescue Economy" is emerging, with products like probiotic cola and health teas gaining popularity, reflecting a trend of seeking comfort amid anxiety [16][19] Group 3: Consumer Needs in a Low-Desire Society - The five growth trends identified correspond to the needs of a low-desire society: companionship, control, healing, ritual, and security, which add extra value to products [20]

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant shift in consumer behavior among young people, highlighting a global trend of "consumption fracture" where spending capabilities and willingness diverge across different demographics [1][6][23] Group 1: Consumer Behavior Changes - Young consumers are increasingly cautious with their spending, opting for home-cooked meals over expensive takeout options, reflecting a broader trend of financial prudence [1][4] - Chipotle's Q1 2025 report indicates a 6.4% increase in net sales, but a 0.4% decline in same-store sales, primarily due to reduced patronage from the 25-35 age group, which previously contributed significantly to sales [1][3] - The low-income demographic, accounting for 40% of sales, is also tightening their budgets, indicating a widespread shift in spending habits [3][4] Group 2: Economic Pressures - Young people face substantial financial burdens, such as high housing prices and student loan debt, which limit their disposable income and affect their consumption choices [4][5][9] - In the U.S., the median home price has reached $435,000, with a significant portion of young adults unable to afford homeownership, leading to a decline in consumer spending [5][9] - In China, young professionals are struggling with high living costs, with many relying on family support to make ends meet, further constraining their spending power [5][6] Group 3: Global Trends - The consumption fracture is not limited to the U.S. but is a global phenomenon affecting young people in various countries, including Japan and Malaysia, where rising prices and stagnant wages create similar economic challenges [10][11] - The article draws parallels between today's youth and Japan's "Heisei generation," who faced economic stagnation and low consumer desire due to similar wage-price dynamics [10][11] Group 4: Shifts in Consumption Attitudes - Generation Z is characterized by a more rational approach to spending, prioritizing quality and value over brand loyalty, which is reshaping market dynamics [13][14] - Social media plays a significant role in influencing young consumers, leading to heightened awareness of economic disparities and cautious spending behavior [14][15] Group 5: Strategies for Adaptation - Companies must adapt to the changing landscape by focusing on value-driven offerings and addressing the real needs of consumers, as exemplified by Aldi's success in providing affordable options [19][21] - Young consumers are encouraged to reassess their financial priorities, distinguishing between needs and wants, and exploring alternative income sources to enhance financial resilience [21][22][23]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the deep-rooted issues stemming from Japan's "lost two decades," particularly the detrimental effects of stigmatizing real estate as a pillar of the economy [1][6] - It highlights the need for a balanced approach to real estate policy, avoiding both extreme bubbles and the complete denial of its economic significance [7] Group 1: Economic Policy and Structural Issues - Ikeda Nobuo's work "The Lost Two Decades" critiques Japan's economic policy failures, particularly the rigid industrial structure and repeated mistakes in housing policy, leading to a vicious cycle of risk aversion, investment suppression, and demand shrinkage [2] - The call for "creative destruction" is presented as a crucial reminder for China to avoid similar pitfalls in its economic development [2] Group 2: Social Impacts of Real Estate Collapse - The transition from an "olive-shaped society" to an "M-shaped society" illustrates the decline of the middle class in Japan, with significant implications for social stability [3] - The concept of a "downstream society" reflects not only income decline but also a broader deterioration in communication skills, work motivation, and consumer drive among the youth [3] Group 3: Psychological Effects of Economic Stagnation - The notion of a "low-desire society" indicates that prolonged real estate stagnation has led to a general apathy among young people, who are increasingly disengaged from traditional life milestones [4] - The idea of society as an "unbeatable game" highlights the despair felt by youth in the face of limited upward mobility, leading to extreme views such as advocating for the legalization of euthanasia [4] Group 4: Consequences of Real Estate Stigmatization - "The Age of Negative Real Estate" focuses on the micro-level consequences of real estate collapse, including the transformation of assets into liabilities and the generational conflicts exacerbated by aging and declining birth rates [5] - The book warns that extreme real estate policies not only destroy economic momentum but also undermine family foundations and social stability [5] Group 5: Lessons for China - The article suggests that China should learn from Japan's experiences by maintaining a healthy real estate market and avoiding the stigmatization of the sector [7] - Emphasis is placed on addressing the employment and living conditions of the youth to prevent a repeat of Japan's "downstream society" [7] - The need for innovative policy frameworks to drive economic growth and avoid stagnation is highlighted, echoing Ikeda Nobuo's call for institutional innovation [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by the economist Hong Hao is that the current bull market is characterized as a "single bull," suggesting that individuals have been saving for a long time and should consider investing in the stock market [1][3] - Hong Hao highlights a societal trend where young people exhibit lower desires for luxury goods, leading to a shift in discretionary income usage [1] - He emphasizes the importance of stock investment for young people, noting that keeping money in the bank results in lost opportunities for compound growth [3] Group 2 - Hong Hao cites Warren Buffett as an example, stating that most of Buffett's wealth accumulated after the age of 50 due to continuous compounding and reinvestment [3] - He encourages young individuals to take risks in investing, as they have the opportunity to learn from mistakes and start over [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior, particularly among younger generations, moving away from credit cards towards alternative payment methods like "Huabei" and "Baitiao" [1][2] - Recent data indicates that 14 banks experienced a reduction of 200 billion yuan in credit card balances in the first half of the year, reflecting a decline in credit card usage among young consumers [1] - The decline of credit cards is not merely a case of obsolescence but represents a broader cultural shift towards more rational and self-controlled spending habits [1][2] Group 2 - The concept of a "low-desire society" is introduced, where reduced consumer desire is seen as a response to societal pressures and anxieties, suggesting that finding a balance between instant gratification and rational planning is crucial [2][5] - The articles suggest that the financial tools available reflect lifestyle choices, with credit cards representing a previous generation's approach to spending, while newer methods align with contemporary values of control and sustainability [1][2]

Group 1 - The concept of "Garden Cities" was proposed by E. Howard in the late 19th century, aiming to create a new urban structure that combines the advantages of both urban and rural areas [1] - Satellite cities serve to alleviate the population, environmental, and traffic pressures of regional central cities, maintaining a close yet independent relationship with the larger urban system [2] - The satellite city model has been adopted by many countries, evolving over 120 years from highly industrialized nations to emerging economies and developing countries [4] Group 2 - Post-World War II London faced significant urban challenges, with a population exceeding 8 million, leading to the implementation of the "Greater London Plan" to create concentric circles of satellite towns [6][7] - The construction of satellite cities in the UK successfully accommodated 2.25 million people and created 1.11 million jobs, attracting numerous international companies [9] - Milton Keynes emerged as a successful example of satellite city development, attracting major corporations and becoming a hub for high-tech industries [11][12] Group 3 - Despite initial successes, early satellite cities in the UK faced issues such as a lack of shopping and entertainment facilities, leading to the phenomenon known as "new town blues" [16] - The concentration of jobs and higher wages in London continued to draw residents from satellite cities, resulting in increased traffic congestion rather than alleviation [17] - The shift of resources to satellite cities led to significant social issues in inner London, including crime and poverty [18][21] Group 4 - The UK government shifted focus back to the city center in the late 20th century, recognizing the need for revitalization and resource allocation to inner-city areas [25][26] - New planning strategies emphasized the importance of central areas, leading to the development of previously overlooked districts into vibrant urban centers [28][30] - London's population is projected to reach 10.5 million by 2041, indicating a return to urban centralization despite past trends of suburbanization [35] Group 5 - Japan also experienced a wave of satellite city development post-World War II, with Tokyo implementing new city planning laws to alleviate urban pressures [36][38] - The three types of new cities in Japan included "sleeping cities," industrial cities, and sub-center cities, each serving different functions [40][41] - Economic downturns in the 1990s led to a decline in many satellite cities, prompting a reevaluation of urban development strategies and a return to central urban areas [46][49] Group 6 - The global trend shows a slowdown in population growth and urban expansion, particularly in developed countries, leading to a focus on revitalizing existing urban centers [57][58] - High costs associated with building new satellite cities and the need for continuous population and business inflow challenge the sustainability of these developments [59] - The shift towards high-end service industries necessitates a focus on densely populated urban centers rather than sparsely populated satellite cities [60][62]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current employment landscape in Japan and its implications for young workers, drawing parallels with the situation in China, particularly regarding job stability and the pursuit of government jobs as a preferred career path [5][12][15]. Group 1: Employment Trends - The article highlights a significant shift in young people's career aspirations, with many now favoring stable government positions over private sector jobs due to job insecurity and potential layoffs in the corporate world [7][8]. - The number of applicants for government jobs has surged, with 2023 seeing 2.6 million candidates vying for 37,000 positions, and projections for 2024 indicating over 3 million applicants for even fewer roles [12][13]. Group 2: Economic Context - Japan's economy has been recovering from decades of stagnation, which has influenced the job market and the attitudes of young workers [5][6]. - The article references Japan's historical economic policies, such as large-scale public infrastructure projects initiated in the 1990s to combat unemployment, drawing a parallel to current strategies in China [16][19]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The discussion includes the financial sustainability of government-funded projects, questioning where the funding comes from and the long-term viability of such economic strategies [23][24]. - The article warns that reliance on government subsidies for high salaries, as seen in Shenzhen's education sector, may not be sustainable in the long run [27][28]. Group 4: Lessons from Japan - The article suggests that the experiences of Japanese workers during economic downturns serve as a cautionary tale for current and future job seekers, emphasizing the risks of following government-led career paths without considering broader economic conditions [6][15][43]. - It concludes that while pursuing popular career paths may seem safe, it does not guarantee future stability, as evidenced by Japan's past economic challenges [44].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer behavior is shifting towards different spending patterns [4]. - The phenomenon of consumption upgrading and demand migration is identified as the largest business opportunity [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a significant revenue increase. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7]. - **Pet Economy**: Despite declining birth rates, spending on pets is increasing, with brands like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China seeing strong sales [10][11]. The pet healthcare sector is also expanding rapidly [12][13]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a substantial growth potential for similar products in China [14][15][16]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness are driving the growth of sugar-free beverages and functional foods in both Japan and China [19][20]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, such as collagen supplements and home beauty devices, remains strong, indicating that beauty is both an economic and therapeutic necessity [22]. - **Outdoor and Leisure**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands in China experiencing rapid sales growth, reflecting a desire for leisure activities despite economic constraints [22]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and unique consumer goods, are gaining popularity [23][24]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience foods and smart home appliances is rising as younger generations seek to save time in cooking and household chores [27][28]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The article suggests that while many perceive the current market as a "cold winter," the true winners are those who can identify and invest in counter-cyclical opportunities [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the social and economic challenges faced by contemporary Japanese society, particularly focusing on the increasing alienation in interpersonal relationships among the youth, driven by prolonged economic stagnation and changing societal norms. Group 1: Interpersonal Relationships - The drama "We Can't Become Beasts" reflects the emotional struggles of a 30-year-old working woman in Tokyo, highlighting the theme of emotional expression as a luxury in a society marked by economic stagnation [1][4] - A 2022 survey revealed that over 40% of individuals aged 20-34 reported having "almost no friends to confide in," a 10% increase from a decade ago, indicating a significant decline in interpersonal connections [4] - The phenomenon of "loneliness" is not merely a personal choice but a survival strategy imposed by the economic environment, leading to a retraction into personal shells [28] Group 2: Generational Conflict - The increasing sentiment of "disliking the elderly" was first noted in a 2014 government report, with 41% of young people viewing older individuals as societal burdens [5] - The ratio of working-age individuals supporting the elderly has drastically decreased from 5.8 in 1990 to 2.1 in 2022, projected to drop to 1.3 by 2050, exacerbating generational tensions [6] - Economic stagnation has led to a disparity in expectations between generations, with younger individuals facing precarious employment and diminished trust in intergenerational contracts [7][11] Group 3: Workplace Relationships - The traditional model of lifetime employment has shifted, with the percentage of formal employees dropping from 81% in 1990 to 63% in 2021, leading to more transactional workplace relationships [13] - The rise of "silent resignation," where employees only fulfill basic job responsibilities without engaging in workplace socialization, reflects a growing detachment from workplace culture [18][19] - The documentary "No Connection Society" illustrates the emotional detachment of temporary workers, highlighting the lack of concern for colleagues' well-being [14] Group 4: Intimate Relationships - A 2022 survey indicated that 70% of unmarried men and 60% of unmarried women aged 18-34 have no romantic partners, with many expressing a lack of interest in dating [20] - Economic pressures have led to a reevaluation of the value of intimate relationships, resulting in a rise in single-person consumption and services catering to loneliness [23][24] - The phenomenon of "single parasitism," where young individuals live with parents without genuine emotional connection, is becoming more common [28] Group 5: Societal Reflection - The article emphasizes that the changes in interpersonal dynamics are not merely individual choices but a reflection of broader societal adjustments to prolonged economic challenges [26][27] - The need for maintaining basic social connections amidst these changes is highlighted as a long-term challenge for Japan and similar societies facing economic difficulties [29]