Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in sales of Durex, with a 50% drop in 2020 and a 40% industry-wide decline, alongside a 20% decrease in marriage rates, indicating a broader trend of reduced sexual desire in society [2][3]. Group 1: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in traditional sexual products is attributed to a "low-desire society," where consumer spending is shifting towards other areas [3]. - The overall e-commerce sales during the 618 shopping festival saw a negative growth of 7%, and the Double Eleven event has not reported results for four consecutive years [3]. Group 2: Emerging Growth Sectors - Five high-growth sectors are identified as alternatives to traditional sexual products: 1. **Pet Consumption Upgrade**: The pet market is projected to reach 302 billion in 2024, with one pet for every three young people [4]. 2. **Endorphin Economy**: An increase of 200 million new sports participants in the last decade, with a surge in outdoor activities and sports brands [8]. 3. **Aromatherapy**: The fragrance market is valued at 850 million USD in 2023, growing at a rate of 10% annually [8]. 4. **Emotional Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG)**: Products that provide immediate emotional satisfaction, such as colorful small items and emotional flower shops [11][12]. 5. **Self-Rescue Economy**: Health-focused products like probiotic cola and health teas are gaining popularity, reflecting a trend of anxiety rather than health consciousness [16][19]. Group 3: Underlying Consumer Needs - The five growth trends reflect the demands of a low-desire society, focusing on feelings of companionship, control, healing, ritual, and safety, which add extra value to products [20]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - For businesses to thrive by 2026, it is crucial to align their development with national strategies, technological trends, globalization perspectives, and user demands [21].

贵金属的通用性比较好，认可度高，更容易给人一种安全感。再加上走势确实一路凌厉向 上，挡都挡不住，势能一旦形成，就是凭惯性也要飚很久。 作者：今纶 一大早起来，发现白银又暴涨了，我心里咯噔一下：完了，我的某资产配置又要狂飙了。今天怎么有心 思上班？ 还有美联储降息25个基点，钻石跌成了鹅卵石，这么多事，必须说说。 先说白银，9日，伦敦银史上首次站上60美元/盎司重要整数关口，10日早盘，伦敦银再度刷新纪录，涨 至61美元/盎司。 今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。 我刚去看了一下，已经63了，真夸张。 为啥疯成这样？ 美联储降息意味着市场上的钱很多，而且美联储早就打开了降息通道，老川还嫌25个基点太少，那意思 是明年美联储换人之后会继续加大降息力度，懂的就懂。 此前，下任美联储主席热门人选、白宫经济顾问哈赛特就表示，他认为美联储"有充足空间"大幅降息。 如果他上台了，肯定继续放水。 ▲哈赛特 钱多了干啥？ 买买买，买贵金属是其中的一个选项，多少要配一些，白银至少是其中一个选项。 再就是白银本来就有工业用途，以下是科普时间： 白银的工业用途主要集中在光伏发电、电子制造、新能源汽车、医疗抗菌和化 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the end of the 30-year tax exemption on condoms and contraceptive products in China, effective January 1, 2025, due to the new VAT law, which aims to encourage childbirth amid declining birth rates [5][8][51]. - The expected price increase for consumers is limited, estimated at around 5% to 10%, which translates to a minor increase in monthly expenses for average households [6][51]. - The policy shift reflects a broader change in China's population management strategy, moving from birth control to promoting a "birth-friendly" environment [15][20][54]. Policy Changes - The new VAT law replaces the old regulations from 1993, which included tax exemptions for contraceptive products to support family planning [5][13]. - The tax rates are set at 13% for general taxpayers and 3% for small-scale taxpayers, indicating a move towards tax equity and resource allocation for child-rearing support [5][16]. - The government is also providing tax reductions for childcare and elderly care services, indicating a comprehensive approach to support families [16][17]. Market Dynamics - The contraceptive market in China is projected to exceed 22 billion yuan by 2025, suggesting a mature market that no longer requires tax incentives [5][9]. - Despite the tax exemption, the condom market has been shrinking, with a 25% decline since 2020, indicating changing consumer behaviors and attitudes towards sexual activity among younger generations [9][10]. Societal Implications - The article highlights a trend of declining sexual activity among young people, attributed to economic pressures and shifting priorities, which may further impact birth rates [10][11][40]. - The notion of a "low-desire society" is discussed, where financial anxieties overshadow personal relationships and family planning decisions [11][41]. - The article argues that the real barriers to childbirth are rooted in financial insecurity and the perception of child-rearing as a significant financial burden, rather than the cost of contraceptives [26][34][52]. Economic Context - The discussion includes the impact of real estate market fluctuations on family financial stability, emphasizing that housing costs and mortgage pressures contribute to the reluctance to have children [30][31][44]. - The article suggests that the government's focus should shift from merely adjusting tax policies to addressing the underlying economic conditions that affect family planning decisions [54][55].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for China [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer behavior is shifting towards different spending patterns [4]. - The article identifies "consumption upgrading" and "demand migration" as significant business opportunities in the current economic landscape [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - The second-hand economy is booming, with examples like Japan's "Daikokuya" and China's "Hongbulin" and "Panghu" seeing significant revenue increases as consumers opt for second-hand luxury goods [6][7]. - The pet economy is on the rise, with brands like "Inaba" in Japan and "Guobao" in China experiencing strong sales growth, reflecting a shift in spending towards pet care products [12][13][14]. - The adult care market is expanding, with Japan's "Unicharm" leading the adult diaper segment, which has surpassed $10 billion in market size [17][18]. - Health food and beverage sectors are thriving due to changing demographics and rising health consciousness, with brands like "Oriental Tree Leaf" and "Jianchun" gaining traction in China [21]. - The beauty economy remains robust, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices seeing high sales, indicating a persistent consumer desire for self-improvement [23][24][26]. - Outdoor leisure activities are gaining popularity, with brands like "Kailas" and "Camel" in China experiencing rapid sales growth as consumers seek outdoor experiences [29][31]. - The "lazy economy" is emerging, with increased demand for convenience foods and smart home appliances, as consumers prioritize time-saving solutions over traditional cooking [39][40][42]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The article suggests that the current economic climate presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors, highlighting the importance of recognizing and seizing these opportunities [44].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the decline in sales of Durex and the overall industry is indicative of a broader societal trend towards lower desires, rather than a complete loss of desire itself [2][3] - The article highlights a significant drop in Durex's sales, with a 50% decrease in 2020 and a 40% decline in the entire industry, alongside a 20% drop in marriage rates [2][3] - It suggests that consumer desires have shifted to new outlets, leading to the emergence of five high-growth sectors [4][8] Group 2 - The first high-growth sector identified is pet consumption, with the market expected to reach 302 billion in 2024, indicating that pet spending has surpassed that of the maternal and infant sector [4][5] - The second sector is the endorphin economy, driven by an increase of 200 million new sports participants in China over the past decade, with a surge in outdoor activities and sports brands [8] - The third sector is aromatherapy, with the fragrance market projected to grow to 850 million USD in 2023, expanding at a rate of 10% annually [8][9] - The fourth sector is emotional fast-moving consumer goods, characterized by products that provide immediate emotional satisfaction and are easy to share [11][12][14] - The fifth sector is the self-rescue economy, reflecting a trend where consumers seek comfort and security through health-oriented products amid rising anxiety levels [16][19] Group 3 - The article concludes that these five growth trends represent the needs of a low-desire society, including companionship, control, healing, ritual, and security, which add extra value to products [20] - It emphasizes the importance of aligning business development with national strategies, technological trends, globalization, and user demands to succeed in the coming years [21]

Group 1 - The article discusses the decline in sexual activity and related product sales among younger generations, highlighting a significant drop in condom sales from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% [8][12] - The largest condom manufacturer, "Kang Le," reported a 40% drop in sales over two years, leading them to pivot to manufacturing rubber gloves [15][13] - Durex's sales in China fell sharply, with online sales dropping from 3.722 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021, and its market share in China reduced to 29.3% by 2024 [16][18] Group 2 - The article attributes the decline in sexual activity to high costs associated with dating, including financial, time, and emotional investments, making casual relationships less appealing [26][30] - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, contributing to decreased condom sales, as nearly half of condom usage occurs outside the home [29] - The article draws parallels with Japan's "low desire society," where similar trends have been observed, indicating a broader cultural shift [24][26] Group 3 - Despite the decline in traditional sexual products, there is a rise in alternative forms of companionship and self-fulfillment, such as pet ownership and hobbies, with the pet market expected to grow significantly [44][42] - The Chinese market for sexual wellness products is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [48][50] - The article suggests that the demand for intimacy and connection is evolving, leading to new business opportunities in various sectors, including emotional support services and single-person living arrangements [41][51]

Core Insights - The article highlights the paradox of increasing household savings in China amidst declining interest rates, suggesting potential economic risks similar to Japan's past experiences [1][3][5] Group 1: Economic Indicators - In 2025, the one-year fixed deposit rate of major state-owned banks in China fell below 1%, reaching 0.95%, while the seven-day annualized yield of money market funds dropped below 1.2% [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that household deposits exceeded 162.02 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 10.77 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, with per capita deposits reaching 105,000 yuan, marking a historical peak of 78.02 trillion yuan in "net deposits" [1] Group 2: Historical Context - The article draws parallels between current Chinese economic conditions and Japan's economic stagnation following the bubble burst in the early 1990s, where low interest rates did not effectively stimulate consumption or investment [3][5] - Japan experienced a shift in societal mindset post-bubble, leading to a "low-desire society" where individuals prioritized saving over spending due to economic uncertainty [3][5] Group 3: Societal Implications - The shift in public sentiment in China mirrors Japan's past, with a growing cautious attitude towards spending and a focus on saving for future uncertainties [5] - The article emphasizes that the core of consumption and investment is confidence, which diminishes when economic outlooks are bleak, leading to a societal trend of "defensive saving" [5] Group 4: Recommendations - The article suggests a balanced approach to wealth management, advocating for a "dumbbell" asset allocation strategy where a majority of assets (70-80%) are placed in safe, liquid investments, while a smaller portion (20-30%) is allocated for growth opportunities [6] - Investing in personal development is highlighted as a reliable strategy for enhancing earning potential during uncertain economic times [6][7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in sales for Durex and the broader sexual health industry, attributing it to a societal shift towards lower desire and changing consumer behaviors [2][3] - It identifies five high-growth sectors that have emerged as alternatives to traditional sexual health products, reflecting the evolving needs of consumers in a low-desire society [4][20] Group 1: Decline in Traditional Markets - Durex's sales halved in 2020, with the entire industry experiencing a 40% decline, and marriage rates dropping by 20% [2] - The overall e-commerce sales during the 618 shopping festival saw a negative growth of 7%, and the Double Eleven event has not reported results for four consecutive years [3] Group 2: Emerging Growth Sectors - The pet consumption market is projected to reach 302 billion yuan in 2024, with an average of one pet for every three young people [4] - Spending on pets has surpassed that of the maternal and infant sector, with a surge in new products such as pet delivery services and smart pet gadgets [5] - The "Endorphin Economy" has seen a rise in sports participation, with 200 million new sports enthusiasts in China over the past decade, leading to increased sales for brands like Asics and New Balance [8] - The fragrance market is growing at a rate of 10% annually, with a market size of 850 million USD in 2023, driven by brands like Aesop and Le Labo [8] - Emotional fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) are gaining traction, characterized by low prices and quick decision-making, providing immediate emotional satisfaction [11][12][14] - The "Self-Rescue Economy" is emerging, with products like probiotic cola and health teas gaining popularity, reflecting a trend of seeking comfort amid anxiety [16][19] Group 3: Consumer Needs in a Low-Desire Society - The five growth trends identified correspond to the needs of a low-desire society: companionship, control, healing, ritual, and security, which add extra value to products [20]

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant shift in consumer behavior among young people, highlighting a global trend of "consumption fracture" where spending capabilities and willingness diverge across different demographics [1][6][23] Group 1: Consumer Behavior Changes - Young consumers are increasingly cautious with their spending, opting for home-cooked meals over expensive takeout options, reflecting a broader trend of financial prudence [1][4] - Chipotle's Q1 2025 report indicates a 6.4% increase in net sales, but a 0.4% decline in same-store sales, primarily due to reduced patronage from the 25-35 age group, which previously contributed significantly to sales [1][3] - The low-income demographic, accounting for 40% of sales, is also tightening their budgets, indicating a widespread shift in spending habits [3][4] Group 2: Economic Pressures - Young people face substantial financial burdens, such as high housing prices and student loan debt, which limit their disposable income and affect their consumption choices [4][5][9] - In the U.S., the median home price has reached $435,000, with a significant portion of young adults unable to afford homeownership, leading to a decline in consumer spending [5][9] - In China, young professionals are struggling with high living costs, with many relying on family support to make ends meet, further constraining their spending power [5][6] Group 3: Global Trends - The consumption fracture is not limited to the U.S. but is a global phenomenon affecting young people in various countries, including Japan and Malaysia, where rising prices and stagnant wages create similar economic challenges [10][11] - The article draws parallels between today's youth and Japan's "Heisei generation," who faced economic stagnation and low consumer desire due to similar wage-price dynamics [10][11] Group 4: Shifts in Consumption Attitudes - Generation Z is characterized by a more rational approach to spending, prioritizing quality and value over brand loyalty, which is reshaping market dynamics [13][14] - Social media plays a significant role in influencing young consumers, leading to heightened awareness of economic disparities and cautious spending behavior [14][15] Group 5: Strategies for Adaptation - Companies must adapt to the changing landscape by focusing on value-driven offerings and addressing the real needs of consumers, as exemplified by Aldi's success in providing affordable options [19][21] - Young consumers are encouraged to reassess their financial priorities, distinguishing between needs and wants, and exploring alternative income sources to enhance financial resilience [21][22][23]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the deep-rooted issues stemming from Japan's "lost two decades," particularly the detrimental effects of stigmatizing real estate as a pillar of the economy [1][6] - It highlights the need for a balanced approach to real estate policy, avoiding both extreme bubbles and the complete denial of its economic significance [7] Group 1: Economic Policy and Structural Issues - Ikeda Nobuo's work "The Lost Two Decades" critiques Japan's economic policy failures, particularly the rigid industrial structure and repeated mistakes in housing policy, leading to a vicious cycle of risk aversion, investment suppression, and demand shrinkage [2] - The call for "creative destruction" is presented as a crucial reminder for China to avoid similar pitfalls in its economic development [2] Group 2: Social Impacts of Real Estate Collapse - The transition from an "olive-shaped society" to an "M-shaped society" illustrates the decline of the middle class in Japan, with significant implications for social stability [3] - The concept of a "downstream society" reflects not only income decline but also a broader deterioration in communication skills, work motivation, and consumer drive among the youth [3] Group 3: Psychological Effects of Economic Stagnation - The notion of a "low-desire society" indicates that prolonged real estate stagnation has led to a general apathy among young people, who are increasingly disengaged from traditional life milestones [4] - The idea of society as an "unbeatable game" highlights the despair felt by youth in the face of limited upward mobility, leading to extreme views such as advocating for the legalization of euthanasia [4] Group 4: Consequences of Real Estate Stigmatization - "The Age of Negative Real Estate" focuses on the micro-level consequences of real estate collapse, including the transformation of assets into liabilities and the generational conflicts exacerbated by aging and declining birth rates [5] - The book warns that extreme real estate policies not only destroy economic momentum but also undermine family foundations and social stability [5] Group 5: Lessons for China - The article suggests that China should learn from Japan's experiences by maintaining a healthy real estate market and avoiding the stigmatization of the sector [7] - Emphasis is placed on addressing the employment and living conditions of the youth to prevent a repeat of Japan's "downstream society" [7] - The need for innovative policy frameworks to drive economic growth and avoid stagnation is highlighted, echoing Ikeda Nobuo's call for institutional innovation [7]