"用了30年的免费避孕福利要没了？2026年起买避孕套要缴13%的税"——这则政策调整消息一出，立刻戳中了年轻人 的敏感神经。从1994年起延续至今的避孕药品和用具免税政策，将随着新《中华人民共和国增值税法》的施行正式终 结，背后是国家从"控制生育"到"鼓励生育"的战略转向。 但问题来了：每月多花几块钱避孕成本，真能让年轻人改变生育决策吗？答案藏在政策细节和现实困境里。 很多人误以为"征税"就是取消所有福利，其实不然。这次政策调整有两个核心背景：一是人口形势的根本变化，2024 年我国人口自然增长率首次转负，总和生育率低至1.2，鼓励生育成为刚需；二是税制改革的规范化，30年前的免税政 策是为配合计划生育，如今避孕用品市场规模已达数百亿元，供应充足、成本透明，无需再靠免税扶持。 关键细节要理清：首先，13%是增值税税率，但企业可抵扣上游进项税，实际涨价幅度仅5?0%——一盒20元的避孕 套，加税后最多贵2元，普通家庭年均新增支出不过几十元，远不及一杯奶茶钱；其次，免费发放渠道并未取消，社 区卫生服务中心、妇幼保健院、智能发放机仍能凭身份证领取，每年免费额度足够满足基础需求，低收入群体和敏感 人群的生殖健康保障 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the end of the 30-year tax exemption on condoms and contraceptive products in China, effective January 1, 2025, due to the new VAT law, which aims to encourage childbirth amid declining birth rates [5][8][51]. - The expected price increase for consumers is limited, estimated at around 5% to 10%, which translates to a minor increase in monthly expenses for average households [6][51]. - The policy shift reflects a broader change in China's population management strategy, moving from birth control to promoting a "birth-friendly" environment [15][20][54]. Policy Changes - The new VAT law replaces the old regulations from 1993, which included tax exemptions for contraceptive products to support family planning [5][13]. - The tax rates are set at 13% for general taxpayers and 3% for small-scale taxpayers, indicating a move towards tax equity and resource allocation for child-rearing support [5][16]. - The government is also providing tax reductions for childcare and elderly care services, indicating a comprehensive approach to support families [16][17]. Market Dynamics - The contraceptive market in China is projected to exceed 22 billion yuan by 2025, suggesting a mature market that no longer requires tax incentives [5][9]. - Despite the tax exemption, the condom market has been shrinking, with a 25% decline since 2020, indicating changing consumer behaviors and attitudes towards sexual activity among younger generations [9][10]. Societal Implications - The article highlights a trend of declining sexual activity among young people, attributed to economic pressures and shifting priorities, which may further impact birth rates [10][11][40]. - The notion of a "low-desire society" is discussed, where financial anxieties overshadow personal relationships and family planning decisions [11][41]. - The article argues that the real barriers to childbirth are rooted in financial insecurity and the perception of child-rearing as a significant financial burden, rather than the cost of contraceptives [26][34][52]. Economic Context - The discussion includes the impact of real estate market fluctuations on family financial stability, emphasizing that housing costs and mortgage pressures contribute to the reluctance to have children [30][31][44]. - The article suggests that the government's focus should shift from merely adjusting tax policies to addressing the underlying economic conditions that affect family planning decisions [54][55].

秋冬气温骤降，流感病毒进入活跃期，咳嗽、发热的身影在人群中日渐增多。中国疾病预防控制中心最新监测数 据显示，全国门急诊流感样病例中流感阳性率已接近45%，流感活动整体进入中流行水平，部分省份更是达到高 流行水平，当前我国已正式迈入呼吸道传染病高发季。 流感防护的关键，在于阻断其多元传播路径。中国疾控中心明确指出，流感病毒不仅可通过飞沫传播，更能借助 门把手、手机、餐具等物体表面实现接触传播——健康人若接触被污染的物品后触摸口鼻，病毒便可能趁虚而入 引发感染。无论是一线医护人员的专业操作，还是普通家庭的日常防护，手部作为接触传播的核心环节，都需要 可靠的防护屏障。 中红医疗 作为国有控股上市公司与国内医疗防护领域的头部企业，依托全品类医用手套矩阵与 行业领先的技术标准，为流感季不同场景的健康防护筑牢"第一道防线"。从医用级丁腈手套到创新型外科防护手 套，每一款产品都承载着对安全的极致追求。 | | | 从以上品类可知， 中红医疗 全品类防护手套覆盖"专业医疗-基层防控-家庭防护"全场景，以行业国标为底线，以 创新材质与工艺为核心，为流感季构筑起全方位、多层次的手部防护体系。做好流感防护，除了选对专业工具， 科学 ...

中国橡胶工业协会说，去年国内安全套少卖了17%（规模156亿元），较2019年下滑19.2%。 我立刻有2个感想。 一个是：抱歉，给产业拖后腿了； 另一个是：如果我是该赛道的玩家，我应该怎么办？ 首先，思路要找对。 创业这件事，很多问题是不能向内求的，而应该向外求。 什么意思？假设A被B打了一顿，B有狂躁症，且就喜欢打A。 这种情况下，A怎么反思自己也没用——这是向内求。 据说避孕套产业压力很大。作为单身狗，这个话题虽然长期与我无关。 但最近，有2个新闻，让我印象深刻。一个是明星王嘉尔，接受TVB访谈时，说自己解决生理需求。"我 也是人嘛""至少不会去乱来"。 另一个是避孕套显著下滑的数据。 但A如果离开B，去一个另外的城市，立马豁然开朗——这就是向外求。 方向搞错，其他努力都是低水平的不断重复，是原地踏步。 避孕套下滑这件事，是个很好的案例。如果你是做避孕套品牌的，向内求就是走死胡同。 为什么？这是一个客观的社会现象，需求萎缩了。 在社会节奏、经济压力、房价、教育和职场竞争等因素下，越来越多人选择晚婚、不婚、丁克，"情侣 ／夫妻避孕"需求萎缩了。 王嘉尔都自己解决需求了——这能说明问题吧。 这种情况下，杜蕾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Condom Paradox," which suggested that condom sales increase during economic downturns, has failed in recent years, with significant declines in sales observed globally and in China [4][5][6]. Industry Overview - The global largest condom manufacturer, Karex Berhad, experienced a 40% drop in sales in 2020, marking its first loss since its listing, contrary to earlier optimistic predictions [5][13]. - The Chinese condom market is projected to decline from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% [5][16]. - The overall condom market in China has shrunk by 25% from 2020 to 2024, with an average annual decline of about 6% [16]. Market Dynamics - The condom industry is facing a comprehensive downturn, affecting upstream production, midstream brands, and downstream sales [8]. - Major brands like Durex have seen a drastic drop in sales, with Durex's online sales in China plummeting from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021 [14]. - Over 78,000 condom-related companies have closed between 2020 and 2024, averaging 17,300 closures per year [15]. Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a reduction in interpersonal interactions and a shift towards alternative contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, which have seen significant growth [19][20]. - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, impacting the demand for condoms in non-home settings [19]. - The economic pressures have led to a decrease in young people's willingness to invest in intimate relationships, further contributing to the decline in condom sales [23][25]. Emerging Trends - In contrast to the declining condom market, the adult products industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size surpassing 200 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market [29][31]. - The adult products market has seen a 24% growth in the past five years, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-pleasure products [29]. - The rise of female consumers in the adult products market is notable, with 70% of late-night orders coming from women, reflecting a change in attitudes towards sexual wellness and self-exploration [46][47].

Group 1 - The article discusses the decline in sexual activity and related product sales among younger generations, highlighting a significant drop in condom sales from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% [8][12] - The largest condom manufacturer, "Kang Le," reported a 40% drop in sales over two years, leading them to pivot to manufacturing rubber gloves [15][13] - Durex's sales in China fell sharply, with online sales dropping from 3.722 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021, and its market share in China reduced to 29.3% by 2024 [16][18] Group 2 - The article attributes the decline in sexual activity to high costs associated with dating, including financial, time, and emotional investments, making casual relationships less appealing [26][30] - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, contributing to decreased condom sales, as nearly half of condom usage occurs outside the home [29] - The article draws parallels with Japan's "low desire society," where similar trends have been observed, indicating a broader cultural shift [24][26] Group 3 - Despite the decline in traditional sexual products, there is a rise in alternative forms of companionship and self-fulfillment, such as pet ownership and hobbies, with the pet market expected to grow significantly [44][42] - The Chinese market for sexual wellness products is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [48][50] - The article suggests that the demand for intimacy and connection is evolving, leading to new business opportunities in various sectors, including emotional support services and single-person living arrangements [41][51]

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in sales for Durex and the broader sexual health industry, attributing it to a societal shift towards lower desire and changing consumer behaviors [2][3] - It identifies five high-growth sectors that have emerged as alternatives to traditional sexual health products, reflecting the evolving needs of consumers in a low-desire society [4][20] Group 1: Decline in Traditional Markets - Durex's sales halved in 2020, with the entire industry experiencing a 40% decline, and marriage rates dropping by 20% [2] - The overall e-commerce sales during the 618 shopping festival saw a negative growth of 7%, and the Double Eleven event has not reported results for four consecutive years [3] Group 2: Emerging Growth Sectors - The pet consumption market is projected to reach 302 billion yuan in 2024, with an average of one pet for every three young people [4] - Spending on pets has surpassed that of the maternal and infant sector, with a surge in new products such as pet delivery services and smart pet gadgets [5] - The "Endorphin Economy" has seen a rise in sports participation, with 200 million new sports enthusiasts in China over the past decade, leading to increased sales for brands like Asics and New Balance [8] - The fragrance market is growing at a rate of 10% annually, with a market size of 850 million USD in 2023, driven by brands like Aesop and Le Labo [8] - Emotional fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) are gaining traction, characterized by low prices and quick decision-making, providing immediate emotional satisfaction [11][12][14] - The "Self-Rescue Economy" is emerging, with products like probiotic cola and health teas gaining popularity, reflecting a trend of seeking comfort amid anxiety [16][19] Group 3: Consumer Needs in a Low-Desire Society - The five growth trends identified correspond to the needs of a low-desire society: companionship, control, healing, ritual, and security, which add extra value to products [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "condom paradox," where condom sales typically increase during economic downturns, but recent trends show a significant decline in sales, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and desires amidst economic pressures [3][4][12]. Group 1: Condom Market Trends - The condom industry is experiencing a comprehensive decline across the supply chain, with upstream rubber supply shrinking, midstream brand performance dropping, and downstream sales remaining sluggish, indicating a harsh industry winter [5][6]. - Karex Berhad, the world's largest condom manufacturer, saw a 40% drop in sales from 2020 to 2022, leading to a shift in production towards medical gloves [8]. - In China, the total sales revenue of condoms is projected to decrease from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17% decline [3][12]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Durex's sales in China plummeted from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021, with its market share dropping to 29.3% by 2024 [9]. - Jissbon, another major brand, has also reported declining market share and sales since 2022, with over 78,000 condom-related companies shutting down between 2020 and 2024 [11]. - The overall condom market in China has contracted by 25% from 208 billion yuan in 2020 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual decline of about 6% [11][12]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced hotel occupancy rates and the rise of alternative contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, which have seen significant growth [12][13]. - The economic pressures have led to a decrease in young people's willingness to invest in intimate relationships, as they prioritize financial stability over romantic engagements [13][14]. - The shift in consumer preferences is evident as the demand for sexual wellness products has increased, with the adult products market in China projected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market [19][20]. Group 4: Rise of Adult Products - The adult products industry has seen a remarkable growth rate of 24% over the past five years, with a market size that is over 13 times larger than that of condoms [19]. - The user base for adult products is increasingly female, with 70% of late-night orders coming from women, indicating a shift in consumer demographics and preferences [24]. - The marketing focus for adult products has transitioned from pleasing partners to self-acceptance and personal enjoyment, reflecting a broader cultural shift towards individual sexual empowerment [30].

Core Insights - The condom market is experiencing a significant decline in sales, while the sex toy market is booming, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and behaviors [2][12]. Industry Overview - Durex, a leading brand in the condom market, has seen its sales drop dramatically, with Tmall sales plummeting from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 840,000 units in 2021, a decrease of 77% [4]. - As of 2024, Durex's market share in China has shrunk to 29.3%, down from over 50% in 2019 [4]. - The overall condom industry is facing a "snowball effect" of business closures, with over 40,000 condom-related companies shutting down between 2020 and mid-2022, averaging more than 17,000 closures per year [9]. Market Dynamics - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, contributing to a decline in condom usage, which is often associated with temporary relationships [11]. - New contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, are becoming more popular, reducing the reliance on condoms [11]. Sex Toy Market Growth - The sex toy market in China surpassed 200 billion yuan in 2024, making it 13 times larger than the condom market [12]. - Online sales of sex toys are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.45% from 2022 to 2027, with a potential increase of approximately 13.4 billion USD [14]. - The repurchase rate for adult products is high, with a 38% rate reported over 90 days, and the average order frequency increasing from 2.1 times in 2021 to 5.3 times in 2024 [14]. Consumer Behavior Shift - The rise in sex toy sales reflects a broader change in consumer attitudes towards intimacy and personal pleasure, moving away from traditional relationships [16][20]. - The increasing number of single individuals in China, estimated at 297 million or 20.7% of the population, indicates a societal shift towards individualism in personal relationships [17]. - Consumers are prioritizing self-pleasure and autonomy over traditional romantic relationships, leading to a re-evaluation of intimacy and sexual experiences [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "condom paradox," which suggests that condom sales increase during economic downturns. However, recent trends show a significant decline in condom sales, contradicting this historical pattern, indicating a broader shift in consumer behavior and desires [4][5][14]. Group 1: Condom Market Decline - The condom industry is experiencing a comprehensive downturn, with upstream production, midstream brands, and downstream sales all shrinking. This indicates a significant industry-wide recession [6][10]. - Karex Berhad, the world's largest condom manufacturer, reported a 40% drop in sales from 2020 to 2022, leading to its first-ever loss since going public. The company had to pivot some production lines to medical gloves to cope with the crisis [9][12]. - In China, the total sales revenue of the condom market is projected to decline from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17% decrease [4][12]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a reduction in interpersonal interactions and a shift in sexual behavior, with many consumers opting for alternative contraceptive methods such as implants and oral pills, which have seen significant growth [13][14]. - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, which has negatively impacted the demand for condoms typically used outside the home [12]. - The rise of single-person households, with over 297 million single individuals in China, reflects a cultural shift where many choose to prioritize personal fulfillment over traditional relationships [25][28]. Group 3: Growth of Adult Products - In contrast to the declining condom market, the adult products industry is booming, with the market size expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, making it over 13 times larger than the condom market [19][20]. - The adult products sector has seen a significant increase in consumer engagement, with a 90-day repurchase rate of 38% for adult products, indicating a strong shift in consumer preferences [21][22]. - The marketing focus for adult products has shifted from pleasing partners to self-acceptance and personal enjoyment, reflecting a broader societal change in attitudes towards sexuality [34][35].