Core Viewpoint - The "Condom Paradox," which suggested that condom sales increase during economic downturns, has failed in recent years, with significant declines in sales observed globally and in China [4][5][6]. Industry Overview - The global largest condom manufacturer, Karex Berhad, experienced a 40% drop in sales in 2020, marking its first loss since its listing, contrary to earlier optimistic predictions [5][13]. - The Chinese condom market is projected to decline from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% [5][16]. - The overall condom market in China has shrunk by 25% from 2020 to 2024, with an average annual decline of about 6% [16]. Market Dynamics - The condom industry is facing a comprehensive downturn, affecting upstream production, midstream brands, and downstream sales [8]. - Major brands like Durex have seen a drastic drop in sales, with Durex's online sales in China plummeting from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021 [14]. - Over 78,000 condom-related companies have closed between 2020 and 2024, averaging 17,300 closures per year [15]. Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a reduction in interpersonal interactions and a shift towards alternative contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, which have seen significant growth [19][20]. - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, impacting the demand for condoms in non-home settings [19]. - The economic pressures have led to a decrease in young people's willingness to invest in intimate relationships, further contributing to the decline in condom sales [23][25]. Emerging Trends - In contrast to the declining condom market, the adult products industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size surpassing 200 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market [29][31]. - The adult products market has seen a 24% growth in the past five years, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-pleasure products [29]. - The rise of female consumers in the adult products market is notable, with 70% of late-night orders coming from women, reflecting a change in attitudes towards sexual wellness and self-exploration [46][47].

Group 1 - The article discusses the decline in sexual activity and related product sales among younger generations, highlighting a significant drop in condom sales from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% [8][12] - The largest condom manufacturer, "Kang Le," reported a 40% drop in sales over two years, leading them to pivot to manufacturing rubber gloves [15][13] - Durex's sales in China fell sharply, with online sales dropping from 3.722 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021, and its market share in China reduced to 29.3% by 2024 [16][18] Group 2 - The article attributes the decline in sexual activity to high costs associated with dating, including financial, time, and emotional investments, making casual relationships less appealing [26][30] - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, contributing to decreased condom sales, as nearly half of condom usage occurs outside the home [29] - The article draws parallels with Japan's "low desire society," where similar trends have been observed, indicating a broader cultural shift [24][26] Group 3 - Despite the decline in traditional sexual products, there is a rise in alternative forms of companionship and self-fulfillment, such as pet ownership and hobbies, with the pet market expected to grow significantly [44][42] - The Chinese market for sexual wellness products is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [48][50] - The article suggests that the demand for intimacy and connection is evolving, leading to new business opportunities in various sectors, including emotional support services and single-person living arrangements [41][51]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "condom paradox," where condom sales typically increase during economic downturns, but recent trends show a significant decline in sales, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and desires amidst economic pressures [3][4][12]. Group 1: Condom Market Trends - The condom industry is experiencing a comprehensive decline across the supply chain, with upstream rubber supply shrinking, midstream brand performance dropping, and downstream sales remaining sluggish, indicating a harsh industry winter [5][6]. - Karex Berhad, the world's largest condom manufacturer, saw a 40% drop in sales from 2020 to 2022, leading to a shift in production towards medical gloves [8]. - In China, the total sales revenue of condoms is projected to decrease from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17% decline [3][12]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Durex's sales in China plummeted from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021, with its market share dropping to 29.3% by 2024 [9]. - Jissbon, another major brand, has also reported declining market share and sales since 2022, with over 78,000 condom-related companies shutting down between 2020 and 2024 [11]. - The overall condom market in China has contracted by 25% from 208 billion yuan in 2020 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual decline of about 6% [11][12]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced hotel occupancy rates and the rise of alternative contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, which have seen significant growth [12][13]. - The economic pressures have led to a decrease in young people's willingness to invest in intimate relationships, as they prioritize financial stability over romantic engagements [13][14]. - The shift in consumer preferences is evident as the demand for sexual wellness products has increased, with the adult products market in China projected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market [19][20]. Group 4: Rise of Adult Products - The adult products industry has seen a remarkable growth rate of 24% over the past five years, with a market size that is over 13 times larger than that of condoms [19]. - The user base for adult products is increasingly female, with 70% of late-night orders coming from women, indicating a shift in consumer demographics and preferences [24]. - The marketing focus for adult products has transitioned from pleasing partners to self-acceptance and personal enjoyment, reflecting a broader cultural shift towards individual sexual empowerment [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "condom paradox," which suggests that condom sales increase during economic downturns. However, recent trends show a significant decline in condom sales, contradicting this historical pattern, indicating a broader shift in consumer behavior and desires [4][5][14]. Group 1: Condom Market Decline - The condom industry is experiencing a comprehensive downturn, with upstream production, midstream brands, and downstream sales all shrinking. This indicates a significant industry-wide recession [6][10]. - Karex Berhad, the world's largest condom manufacturer, reported a 40% drop in sales from 2020 to 2022, leading to its first-ever loss since going public. The company had to pivot some production lines to medical gloves to cope with the crisis [9][12]. - In China, the total sales revenue of the condom market is projected to decline from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17% decrease [4][12]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a reduction in interpersonal interactions and a shift in sexual behavior, with many consumers opting for alternative contraceptive methods such as implants and oral pills, which have seen significant growth [13][14]. - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, which has negatively impacted the demand for condoms typically used outside the home [12]. - The rise of single-person households, with over 297 million single individuals in China, reflects a cultural shift where many choose to prioritize personal fulfillment over traditional relationships [25][28]. Group 3: Growth of Adult Products - In contrast to the declining condom market, the adult products industry is booming, with the market size expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, making it over 13 times larger than the condom market [19][20]. - The adult products sector has seen a significant increase in consumer engagement, with a 90-day repurchase rate of 38% for adult products, indicating a strong shift in consumer preferences [21][22]. - The marketing focus for adult products has shifted from pleasing partners to self-acceptance and personal enjoyment, reflecting a broader societal change in attitudes towards sexuality [34][35].

Core Insights - The condom industry in China is experiencing a shift from "incremental competition" to "stock competition," with overall production declining after years of rapid growth [3][9] - China is the largest producer and consumer of condoms globally, with a significant market size [3][11] Industry Overview - Condoms are a common barrier contraceptive method, also preventing the transmission of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) [2][3] - The market size for condoms in China is projected to be 16.848 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.636 billion yuan from 2023 [3] Production and Demand Statistics - In 2024, China's condom production is expected to be 7.846 billion units, a reduction of 949 million units from 2023 [3] - The demand for condoms in 2024 is projected to be 7.264 billion units, down by 945 million units from the previous year [3] Market Trends - The online sales channel for condoms is dominant, accounting for 71.2% of the market in 2024, with an expected increase to 71.76% in 2025 [7] - The industry is expected to see gradual improvement in 2025, with production estimated at 8.074 billion units and a market size of approximately 17.562 billion yuan [3] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese condom market is highly competitive, with significant market concentration among international brands like Durex and Okamoto, which dominate the high-end segment [9] - Local brands, such as Jissbon, also hold substantial market share, contributing to a multi-tiered competitive environment [9] Industry Development Trends - The future direction of the condom industry includes a focus on smart personalization and sustainable practices, driven by increasing health awareness and consumption upgrades [11]