2025 年 9 月 26 日 基准情形下（逆周期政策托底经济），美元兑人民币汇率年末将趋近于 7.0； 乐观情形下（超常规逆周期政策刺激经济，或美国对来自中国的进口商品关税 税率在现有水平的基础上再调降 20 个百分点），我们根据模型测算美元兑人 民币汇率的新均衡位置在 6.7 附近。 "强汇率+弱基本面"的组合下，货币宽松可能无法延缓升值，反而加剧 升值。本轮的人民币升值并非来自经济基本面的推动，而是从汇率预期→外汇 供求关系→升值→汇率预期的逻辑链条，即汇率预期与预期的自我实现形成 向上螺旋。因此未来人民币汇率的主导逻辑也不是简单的降息交易，而是基于 汇率预期和中美博弈。假设美联储四季度货币宽松符合市场预期，我们对于人 民银行未来的降息幅度分两种情形进行讨论： 基准情形：逆周期政策托底经济，人民银行四季度降息 10-20BP，财政政策 适度加力，货币政策、财政政策将共同主导汇率变动 本轮人 民币的 升值并 非伴 随 中国经 济的强 势回升 ，事实上目前 的汇率 定价已 计入经 济增长 可能再 次面 临 压力的 未来现 实。但 是目 前 市场对 于四季 度降息 落地并未形成一致预期，因此目前的汇率水平并没 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23% as of April 29, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Weir Shares up 4.58% and Wuxi AppTec up 4.39% [3] - The Politburo meeting highlighted three key signals regarding the economic situation: a recognition of external economic challenges, a focus on stabilizing employment and market expectations, and an acceleration of policy implementation, particularly in technology, consumption, and foreign trade [3] - The government plans to enhance policy measures to support key sectors and ensure employment stability as a primary goal [3] Group 2 - According to Dongwu Securities, the "national team" has shifted its investment strategy from individual stocks to passive index tools, with over 100 billion yuan allocated to ETFs tracking the Shanghai 50 Index by the end of last year [4] - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 50 Index accounted for 49.84% of the index, with Kweichow Moutai, China Ping An, and China Merchants Bank being the top three [4] - The Shanghai 50 ETF closely tracks the Shanghai 50 Index, with significant holdings in major blue-chip companies [4]