1月银行间外汇市场日均交易量2175.37亿美元，同比增长16.5%，环比增长16.77%。各市场成交放量，人民币外汇市场日均交易量为1637.43亿美元，同比增 长15.63%，环比增长13.67%；外币对市场和外币利率市场交易活跃，日均环比增速均在25%以上。 二、美元指数前高后低、整体趋弱，人民币汇率延续走升 地缘政治局势再现扰动，就业、通胀数据支撑美联储按兵不动，美元指数先升后跌、全月下行。开年以来，地缘政治紧张局势升级，美国对委内瑞拉采取军 事行动，美国失业率小幅下行且通胀数据符合预期，美元指数自98附近反弹上行，一度升至99.50附近。但随后美国在贸易与主权问题上反复无常、频繁施 压，冲击西半球安全格局，美欧围绕格陵兰岛的争端发酵，北美贸易不确定性显著加剧，引发市场"去美元化"担忧和美债抛售风波，美元资产信用风险再现 裂痕，美元指数自高位急剧下挫至97关口。此外，市场预期美日联合干预日本汇市，助推日元大幅走强，美元指数相应承压至96下方，自1月中旬高点累计 跌幅近4%。月末，美联储1月维持利率不变，且市场预期新任美联储主席沃什偏鹰派，美元获得短暂支撑。月末，美元指数收于96.99，较上月末贬值 1 ...

2026年1月，银行间外汇市场交投活跃，全市场日均成交量同比、环比均明显增长。与此同时，境 内外汇差维持正值，即期发起方基本维持净卖汇方向，各类型机构交易方向延续不变。 中国外汇交易中心（以下简称"交易中心"）发布的最新数据显示，1月银行间外汇市场日均交易量 2175.37亿美元，同比增长16.50%，环比增长16.77%。各市场成交放量，人民币外汇市场日均交易量为 1637.43亿美元，同比增长15.63%，环比增长13.67%；外币对市场和外币利率市场交易活跃，日均环比 增速均在25%以上。 境内外汇差维持正值 人民币对美元汇率延续走升，1月末升至6.95关口。 1月，各期限掉期点整体下行。1年期期限掉期点月末收于-1222个基点，较上月末下行97个基点； 其余中短期限掉期点小幅下探。从驱动因素看，根据掉期点定价公式，1年期掉期点走低97个基点，可 依次分解为利率因素、汇率因素、市场供需因素分别导致掉期点下跌76个基点、上涨9个基点、下跌30 个基点，反映出1月推动掉期点下行主要受利差走阔影响。同时，本月1年期掉期点与利率平价理论值差 值维持低位，月均值下降4个基点至208个基点附近，也反映出掉期市场买入 ...

Group 1: Forex Market Overview - The forex market transaction volume steadily increased in 2025, with a total turnover of 48.52 trillion USD and an average daily turnover of 199.66 billion USD, marking a historical high and a year-on-year growth of 6.54% [2] - The average daily turnover in the RMB forex market reached 148.75 billion USD, with significant growth in trading volumes for foreign currencies and foreign currency interest rate markets, increasing by 27.58% and 17.28% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB to USD exchange rate experienced fluctuations, ultimately strengthening, with the year-end rate at 6.9890, appreciating by 4.43% compared to the previous year, while the CFETS RMB exchange rate index ended at 97.99, down 3.43% for the year [3][5] - The RMB exchange rate faced pressure in April due to heightened trade tensions and tariffs, but rebounded later in the year as trade negotiations eased and domestic economic policies improved, leading to a significant appreciation of over 1,000 basis points by year-end [4][5] Group 3: Swap Curve and Interest Rate Dynamics - The swap curve for RMB significantly rose, with the 1Y swap point reaching a new high, influenced by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, which correlated highly with the 10-year US Treasury yield [6][7] - The 1Y swap point deviated from the interest rate parity theory, showing a positive correlation with the appreciation expectations of the RMB, with the average deviation being approximately 49 basis points, marking the first positive deviation since 2023 [7] Group 4: Offshore RMB Liquidity and Market Structure - Offshore RMB liquidity remained tight, with the People's Bank of China issuing a record 300 billion RMB in offshore central bank bills, maintaining a stable yet slightly tight liquidity environment [8] - The interest rate market for foreign currencies showed overall easing, with the domestic USD borrowing rates remaining low, while the spread between domestic and foreign rates widened, reaching a three-year low of -40 basis points by year-end [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of the US dollar to a near four-year low is attributed to multiple factors, including the erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, domestic political turmoil, and uncertainty in trade policies [2][8]. Exchange Rate Changes - The US dollar index fell to 96.219, a decrease of 0.84% in one day, with the euro rising to 1.1979 USD and the British pound to 1.3780 USD [2]. - The Japanese yen appreciated against the dollar, with 1 USD exchanging for 152.77 JPY, reflecting market speculation about potential intervention in the currency market [2]. Economic Fundamentals - The decline in the dollar's value is linked to the "confidence pricing logic" of exchange rates, where the dollar's status as a global reserve currency relies on the strength of the US economy and the independence of the Federal Reserve [3]. - Historical data shows that significant fluctuations in the dollar index are closely tied to the Federal Reserve's independence, which is currently under threat due to political pressures [4]. Trade Policies - Recent tariff increases on imports from South Korea by the Trump administration are seen as detrimental to market expectations, potentially leading to higher domestic inflation and retaliatory measures from trade partners [5]. - The unpredictability of US trade policies is causing global investors to reassess their positions in dollar-denominated assets, leading to capital outflows [5]. Political Environment - Ongoing political disputes between the Republican and Democratic parties regarding funding for the Department of Homeland Security raise concerns about a potential government shutdown, which could disrupt the release of key economic data [6]. - Historical precedents indicate that government shutdowns can negatively impact GDP growth, further eroding confidence in the dollar [6]. Currency Dynamics - The rise of the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency is influenced by expectations of intervention in the currency market, as well as Japan's status as a major trading partner of the US [7]. - The offshore Chinese yuan has also seen fluctuations, recently falling below the 6.94 mark against the dollar, influenced by the overall weakness of the dollar and the relative stability of the Chinese economy [7]. Investment Implications - The current situation suggests that investors should diversify their currency holdings rather than solely relying on dollar assets, as the dollar's dominance may be weakening [8]. - Companies, especially those involved in imports and exports, are advised to implement currency hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate volatility [8].

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of the RMB exchange rate is stable with a tendency to strengthen, with the USD/RMB remaining below the 7.0 mark. The future trajectory of the RMB is expected to exhibit a pattern of two-way fluctuations due to a combination of internal and external factors, as well as market expectations [1][10]. Group 1: Internal and External Factors - The recent RMB appreciation is driven by multiple factors, including external influences such as the significant depreciation of the USD, which has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB. The weakening of the USD is attributed to the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the dollar's credibility [3][4]. - Internally, positive shifts in China's macroeconomic narrative, proactive measures against external shocks, stable economic growth of around 5%, and progress in US-China trade negotiations have collectively rebuilt market confidence in Chinese assets, providing support for the exchange rate [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - China's external demand has shown unexpected resilience, with exports increasing by 5.4% year-on-year in the first eleven months, contributing to a growing trade surplus that supports liquidity in the foreign exchange market. Additionally, year-end corporate foreign exchange settlement demands have further bolstered RMB appreciation [3][5]. - The attractiveness of Chinese assets has improved, with the A-share market performing well, as evidenced by a 16.5% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index for the year, shifting market expectations from a "weak RMB" to a "stable and rising RMB" [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - In 2026, domestic monetary policy is expected to remain "appropriately loose," with predictions of two interest rate cuts of 20-30 basis points each, which is an increase from the 10 basis points cut in 2025. This is anticipated to have a limited impact on the RMB exchange rate [7][8]. - The central bank's focus on preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate is expected to maintain the RMB's stable foundation, with a moderate appreciation trend likely to continue. The Fed's rate-cutting cycle is also expected to support RMB appreciation [8][10]. Group 4: Future Exchange Rate Projections - The RMB exchange rate is projected to exhibit a two-way fluctuation pattern in 2026, with short-term movements influenced by domestic economic recovery, progress in trade negotiations, and USD interest rate paths. Long-term trends will fundamentally depend on the progress of domestic reforms [10][11]. - The RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around a central range of 7.0 to 7.2, with potential depreciation pressure, but supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing employment and market expectations, which could lead to GDP growth of 4.5% to 5.0% in 2026 [10][11].

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Overview - In November, the average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market decreased to $191.46 billion, a year-on-year decline of 2.57% and a month-on-month decline of 6.69% [1] - The average daily trading volume for the RMB foreign exchange market was $146.23 billion, down 5.11% year-on-year [1] - The RMB to USD exchange rate strengthened, breaking through the 7.12 to 7.08 levels, reaching a year-to-date high of 7.0794 by the end of November [1][3] Group 2: USD Index and Interest Rate Expectations - The USD index experienced fluctuations, initially maintaining a narrow range due to cautious Fed rate cut expectations, but later fell to 99.45 by the end of November, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous month [2] - The market's risk aversion increased mid-month, leading to a temporary rise in the USD index above 100 points, but it subsequently declined as Fed officials indicated support for rate cuts [2][3] Group 3: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB to USD exchange rate showed a strong upward trend, with the onshore RMB closing at 7.0794, appreciating 0.48% from the previous month, while the offshore RMB was at 7.0754, appreciating 0.58% [3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose to 97.92, reflecting a 0.32% appreciation from the previous month [3] Group 4: Derivatives Market Activity - In November, the average daily trading volume of RMB foreign exchange options was $5.44 billion, an increase of 3.93% month-on-month [4] - The implied volatility of RMB to USD options showed a downward trend initially, followed by an increase, indicating a rise in short-term appreciation expectations for the RMB [4] Group 5: Swap Market Trends - The one-year swap points decreased by 9 basis points to -1296 basis points by the end of November, influenced by market supply and demand factors [5] - The spread between onshore and offshore one-year swap points narrowed to around 50 basis points, the lowest in three months [6] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Conditions - Domestic dollar liquidity tightened slightly in November, while offshore dollar liquidity remained tight, with the SOFR rate fluctuating between 3.91% and 4.12% [7] - The overnight dollar borrowing rate in the domestic market rose to 3.87% by the end of November, reflecting a tightening trend [7] Group 7: Market Sentiment - The sentiment index for dollar borrowing funds showed increased volatility, rising from 54 points to 57 points in the first half of the month, before falling back to 46 points by the end of November [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US dollar has weakened since 2025 due to policy, funding, and fundamental factors, with potential future support for the dollar from various economic conditions [1][2][19] - Since the beginning of 2025, the dollar has depreciated significantly, dropping from around 110 to a low of 96.98, and has remained below 100 despite some recovery in the fourth quarter [2][19] - The article highlights three deviations from traditional expectations regarding the dollar's performance: the dollar's depreciation despite tariff increases, the lack of support from high interest rates, and the dollar's failure to strengthen as a safe-haven asset during market turmoil [2][5][8] Group 2 - From a policy perspective, the economic policies of the Trump administration, particularly the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs," have directly contributed to the dollar's depreciation, with significant increases in overall tariff levels [11][12] - The sustainability of the US fiscal deficit has come under scrutiny, with the deficit reaching 6.4% of GDP and government debt at 98% of GDP, raising concerns about the long-term viability of US fiscal policy [12][19] - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been challenged by external pressures from the Trump administration, which has led to increased uncertainty in monetary policy decisions [12][19] Group 3 - Changes in foreign investment structures have amplified dollar volatility, with a shift towards equity investments and a decrease in government bond holdings, leading to increased sensitivity to market fluctuations [15][17] - The proportion of private sector investors has increased significantly, which tends to react more quickly to market conditions compared to official sector investors, further contributing to dollar volatility [15][17] - The dollar's depreciation has also been influenced by private sector investors beginning to hedge against currency risk as the dollar shows signs of weakness [17][19] Group 4 - The US economy has shown signs of slowing growth, with GDP growth at 1.9% in the first half of 2025, the lowest since 2023, and inflation risks rising due to tariff impacts [18][19] - Employment data has also been weak, with significant downward revisions in non-farm payroll numbers, indicating a potential drag on consumer spending [18][19] - Despite these challenges, the dollar may not experience rapid depreciation in the short term due to relative economic resilience compared to other developed economies [19][20] Group 5 - In the short term, the dollar's exchange rate is expected to remain stable, supported by the relative strength of the US economy and a potential easing of policy uncertainty from the Trump administration [19][20] - However, the volatility of the dollar may increase due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's policies and the reliance on stock market performance to attract capital inflows [20] - Long-term challenges to the dollar's status as a global currency are emerging, with concerns about the stability of the dollar's value and the increasing sensitivity of US Treasury bonds to market risks [20][23]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its policy interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% during the meeting on December 19, 2025, with limited market impact anticipated due to prior communication and pricing adjustments [2][8][10]. Group 1: Current Economic Situation - Japan's inflation has stabilized around 3% over the past three years, with a current policy interest rate of 0.50% and a 10-year yield of approximately 1.90-2.00% [3][9]. - Compared to historical data, Japan's current inflation rate is relatively high among developed economies, indicating a departure from its previous deflationary state [3][9]. - The long-term interest rates in Japan are significantly lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, suggesting a likelihood of future interest rate increases [3][9]. Group 2: Interest Rate Hike Expectations - The BOJ's potential interest rate hike is primarily driven by the need to curb the rapid depreciation of the yen [9][10]. - Market pricing for the December rate hike is already high, with an OIS market pricing of 94% for the increase, indicating that the market has largely priced in the expected hike [10][11]. - The BOJ's communication has been clear, with Governor Ueda providing strong hints about the likelihood of a rate increase during the upcoming meeting [8][10]. Group 3: Impact of Rate Hike - The anticipated rate hike is expected to have a limited impact on the market due to prior communication and the current scale of carry trade being relatively low [10][11]. - The scale of carry trades in Japan is currently below levels seen in previous years, reducing the risk of significant market volatility following the rate hike [11][20]. - The potential for currency intervention by Japanese authorities may increase following the rate hike, especially if the yen continues to depreciate rapidly [9][10]. Group 4: Fiscal Implications - Concerns regarding the fiscal burden from rising interest rates are mitigated by the fact that the Japanese government stands to benefit from inflation, which improves its fiscal situation [23][29]. - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio is over 200%, the highest among developed nations, but the structure of its debt and the currency denomination (in yen) reduce the risk of a fiscal crisis [24][29]. - The government has seen a significant improvement in its fiscal position in recent years, with a notable decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio, attributed to rising inflation and nominal GDP growth [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of up to $4 billion in sovereign bonds by the Chinese government in Hong Kong is not merely a borrowing action but a strategic move to rewrite the rules of the financial system and test systemic pressures against the backdrop of international relations and financial dynamics [1] Group 1: Strategic Implications - The issuance represents a significant step in establishing a "China Dollar Curve," allowing for a new pricing framework for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds, which could reduce reliance on U.S. Treasury benchmarks [1] - By issuing bonds with a strong credit rating and no default history, China is positioning itself as a credible alternative in the global fixed income market, potentially altering the demand dynamics for U.S. Treasuries [1][5] Group 2: Financial Mechanics - The Chinese government holds $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves, with approximately $1 trillion in long-term U.S. Treasuries, and the issuance of short-term dollar bonds is a strategy to manage interest rate risk by introducing "negative duration" on the liability side [3] - The raised funds will be directed towards countries in need of foreign currency, creating a closed loop of "dollar assets—commodities—RMB settlement," enhancing the offshore RMB's liquidity and credit premium [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The ongoing weaponization of currencies, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led China to establish a high-credit, traceable record of transactions in the dollar system, which could serve as a reference point for international investors in extreme scenarios [4] - The issuance sends a strong signal of confidence in China's growth and currency management, contrasting with the rising fiscal deficit in the U.S., which could reshape the perception of safe assets in the long term [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to increase the balance sheet reduction to $95 billion per month has created a structural shortage of offshore dollars, making the issuance of dollar bonds a strategic move to "repatriate" offshore dollars without depleting foreign reserves [6] - This action could mitigate the risks of currency depreciation among emerging markets due to dollar shortages, reinforcing the narrative of the RMB as a regional stabilizing anchor [6]

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of USD liquidity through a three-dimensional framework focusing on the federal funds market, repo market, and offshore USD market, monitoring liquidity changes across scale, price, and policy dimensions [1][3]. Federal Funds Market - The federal funds market is identified as the cornerstone of USD liquidity, with total reserves reflecting the banking system's liquidity level. As of September 2025, total reserves reached $3.2 trillion, accounting for 12.9% of total bank assets, indicating a reasonable liquidity level [1][11]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been decreasing since June 2022, but the reverse repo tool has acted as a buffer, preventing significant reserve withdrawal [1][3]. - The discount window is underutilized due to a "stigma effect," primarily activated during market crises [15]. Repo Market - The repo market serves as a crucial hub for USD liquidity, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) being a key pricing benchmark. As of September 2025, the SOFR-ON RRP spread has increased to 16 basis points, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [2][18]. - The ratio of primary dealers' Treasury reverse repo to reserve balances was 0.88 in September 2025, showing an upward trend but still below crisis levels, suggesting that while liquidity is tightening, it is not at crisis levels [2][18]. - The standing repo facility established in 2021 provides a liquidity ceiling, supporting the market during disturbances [19]. Offshore USD Market - The offshore USD market has evolved towards "bondification" and "derivatization," with bonds replacing loans as the primary means of credit expansion. As of 2024, offshore USD bond balances have increased by 213.8% compared to 2007 [25]. - The liquidity in the offshore market is challenging to monitor through quantity indicators, with currency swap basis becoming a core observation metric. The trend of the currency swap basis has narrowed in 2025, indicating ample offshore USD liquidity [25][30]. - The Federal Reserve's central bank liquidity swaps and FIMA repo facility are essential tools for maintaining offshore market liquidity stability, especially during crises [34][39].