1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The linkage between exchange rates and interest rates is the result of policy - goal trade - offs under the "Impossible Trinity". When the domestic fundamentals are resilient, policies block the interest - rate parity transmission through foreign - exchange management tools, and exchange rates and interest rates mainly reflect internal equilibrium. When fundamentals are under pressure and there are external shocks, policies allow exchange - rate flexibility, and the interest - rate parity mechanism dominates cross - border capital flows [4]. - The future scope for interest - rate cuts depends not only on the narrowing of the China - US interest - rate spread but also on whether broad - credit policies can stimulate domestic demand and whether trade transformation can strengthen exchange - rate resilience [4][11]. - The core contradiction in the current linkage between interest rates and exchange rates lies in the dynamic balance between external constraints and internal policy space. Policy frameworks need to reshape the transmission path of interest - rate spreads and exchange - rate differentials through tool innovation and expectation management [101]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest and Exchange Rate Correlation - Interest rates and exchange rates represent the internal and external prices of currencies respectively, with a high correlation. The exchange rate has a stronger correlation with long - term interest rates that reflect fundamental expectations and with the interest - rate spread that reflects China - US relative changes [7][19]. - The relationship between exchange rates and interest rates is complex, being affected by common factors and possibly being causal to each other. Under the "Impossible Trinity", policies need to make dynamic trade - offs among exchange - rate stability, capital flow, and monetary - policy independence [7]. 3.2 Linkage between Exchange Rates and Interest Rates under the "Impossible Trinity" 3.2.1 Stages Driven by Common Factors - When external shocks occur and domestic fundamentals are strong, policies prioritize "exchange - rate stability" and "monetary - policy independence" while weakening capital free flow. The ability of domestic fundamentals to "absorb" shocks determines whether exchange rates and interest rates are affected by external factors [8][32]. - Examples include the 2018 - 2019 China - US trade friction period and the 2020 - 2021 global public - health event period. In these periods, China maintained monetary - policy independence, and the correlation between interest - rate spreads and exchange rates decreased [40][44]. 3.2.2 Stages of Mutual Causality - When domestic and overseas monetary - policy cycles diverge and domestic fundamentals are under pressure, policies tolerate exchange - rate fluctuations to enhance monetary - policy autonomy. Capital flows affect exchange rates through the interest - rate parity mechanism, forming a self - reinforcing cycle [51]. - Examples are the period from August 2015 to 2016 and the 2022 - 2024 period. In these periods, the two - way causal relationship between interest - rate spreads and exchange rates was significant, and the explanatory power of the interest - rate parity theory increased [52][56]. 3.3 Application of Exchange - Rate and Interest - Rate Linkage in Bond - Market Investment 3.3.1 Arbitrage Calculation under the Covered Interest - Rate Parity (CIP) Theory - International investors calculate the comprehensive return of the China - US interest - rate spread and hedging costs when allocating RMB bonds. The balance between hedging costs and interest - rate spreads drives short - term bond - allocation preferences [9]. - The CIP theory provides a pricing benchmark for cross - border capital flows. When there are differences in comprehensive returns between domestic and foreign investments, investors will engage in arbitrage until the returns are equal [68][69]. 3.3.2 Impact of Central - Bank Exchange - Rate Stabilization Operations on Foreign Bond Purchases - Central - bank exchange - rate stabilization tools can reset arbitrage costs. For example, the counter - cyclical factor can reduce the forward - premium rate, while offshore - liquidity regulation can increase arbitrage friction costs, and macro - prudential tools can have a structural constraint on capital flows [86][91][92]. - Different types of foreign investors have different responses to central - bank policies. Short - term trading funds are more sensitive to arbitrage - friction costs, while long - term allocation funds may turn to holding medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds when the costs exceed a certain threshold [97]. 3.4 Future Outlook on the Linkage between Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The core contradiction in the current linkage between interest rates and exchange rates is the dynamic balance between external constraints and internal policy space. The Fed's policy - turning rhythm and China's growth - stabilization needs are important factors influencing the linkage between interest - rate spreads and exchange rates [101][102]. - Policy frameworks need to reshape the transmission path of interest - rate spreads and exchange - rate differentials through tool innovation and expectation management to achieve a dynamic balance between "self - orientation" and "internal - external equilibrium" [101].

意见领袖 | 李庚南 正值市场各方纷纷猜测央行提前降准降息的概率有多大的时候，降准降息的"靴子"咣地一声落地了！ 5月7日上午，在国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在会上宣布，为贯彻 落实4月25日中央政治局会议精神，进一步实施好宽松的货币政策，将加大宏观调控的力度，推出数量 型政策、价格型政策、结构型政策等三大类十项政策组合拳，其中包括降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供 长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点。 实际上，自去年末中央经济工作会议提出要实施适度宽松的货币政策、适时降准降息以来，降准降息就 成为市场心心念念的信息；而择机降准降息则成为央行一以贯之的表态。"五一"节前关于央妈可能提前 启动降准降息的传闻颇多，市场对降准降息的预期不断增强。4月28日，央行在国新办新闻发布会上再 次表示，将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕。央行的表态， 以及内外部经济形势的变化，进一步增强了市场对提前降准降息的预期。降准降息呼之欲出！ 作为央行货币政策最常规也是最核心的工具，存款准备金率与利率一向被市场视为货币调控的"猛药"， 而降准降息则是释放市场流 ...

央行政策对外汇价格的影响 央行政策是外汇市场中最重要的驱动因素之一，通过货币政策工具直接影响货币供需、市场预期和经济 基本面，进而推动汇率波动。以下从政策工具、传导机制、实际案例及交易策略四个维度解析其影响： 央行通过调整基准利率（如美联储的联邦基金利率、欧洲央行的再融资利率）改变货币的借贷成本，进 而影响利差。 · 加息：吸引外资流入（追求高收益），推升本币汇率。 · 降息：降低本币吸引力，资金外流导致贬值。 案例：2022 年美联储激进加息，美元指数飙升近 20%，创 20 年新高。 利差交易（Carry Trade）： 投资者借入低息货币（如日元、瑞郎），投资高息货币（如澳元、新兴市场货币），长期利差扩大推高 高息货币汇率。 2. 量化宽松（QE）与缩表（QT） QE（扩大资产负债表）： 一、央行核心政策工具与外汇市场的关联 1. 利率政策 直接作用： 央行购买国债等资产向市场注入流动性，导致货币供应量增加，本币贬值压力上升。 案例：2020 年疫情期间，美联储启动无限 QE，美元指数下跌 12%。 QT（缩表）： 减少资产持有规模，回收流动性，支撑本币汇率。 风险：过快缩表可能引发市场流动性危机（如 ...

文/曹萌 3月20日，中国、美国和日本均在当周公布了新一期的货币政策，其中从利率角度观察，三国均维持 当前利率水平不变。 但值得一提的是，据美联储3月议息会议公布的点阵图显示，虽然预测利率中值与上次相比不变，可 降息预期整体有所减弱，反映出美联储对特朗普关税政策可能推升通胀上行风险的担忧。 此外，美联储主席鲍威尔在议息会议之后的新闻发布会上重申美联储不急于调整货币政策，要等待特 朗普关税政策对经济影响更加明确。 虽说美联储表面上不急于降息，但其在3月议息会议中宣布从4月开始放缓缩表，而放缓缩表可以实 现部分降息效果。这一决定也助力了美股迎来久违的反弹，以及国际金价冲破3050美元/盎司。 纵观国内货币政策，3月20日上午，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，贷款市场报价 利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上LPR为3.6%，为连续第5个月维持不变。 对于此前《政府工作报告》重申的"适时降准降息"，部分机构预测， 今年二季度降息窗口将会打 开。 01 "表里不一"的美联储 3 月 20 日 凌 晨 ， 备 受 瞩 目 的 美 联 储 3 月 议 息 会 议 尘 埃 落 定 ， 联 邦 基 ...