2025 年 9 月 26 日 基准情形下（逆周期政策托底经济），美元兑人民币汇率年末将趋近于 7.0； 乐观情形下（超常规逆周期政策刺激经济，或美国对来自中国的进口商品关税 税率在现有水平的基础上再调降 20 个百分点），我们根据模型测算美元兑人 民币汇率的新均衡位置在 6.7 附近。 "强汇率+弱基本面"的组合下，货币宽松可能无法延缓升值，反而加剧 升值。本轮的人民币升值并非来自经济基本面的推动，而是从汇率预期→外汇 供求关系→升值→汇率预期的逻辑链条，即汇率预期与预期的自我实现形成 向上螺旋。因此未来人民币汇率的主导逻辑也不是简单的降息交易，而是基于 汇率预期和中美博弈。假设美联储四季度货币宽松符合市场预期，我们对于人 民银行未来的降息幅度分两种情形进行讨论： 基准情形：逆周期政策托底经济，人民银行四季度降息 10-20BP，财政政策 适度加力，货币政策、财政政策将共同主导汇率变动 本轮人 民币的 升值并 非伴 随 中国经 济的强 势回升 ，事实上目前 的汇率 定价已 计入经 济增长 可能再 次面 临 压力的 未来现 实。但 是目 前 市场对 于四季 度降息 落地并未形成一致预期，因此目前的汇率水平并没 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - High premiums are usually driven by factors such as supply - demand mismatches, quota restrictions, exchange - rate expectations, or policy limitations. Since Trump took office, his changing tariff policies have overshadowed other factors. After China's exchange - rate reform and policy transition, the large - scale fluctuations in the premiums of non - ferrous sector commodities caused by exchange - rate and "financing copper" issues may decrease in the future. Current premium fluctuations are mainly due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic - foreign supply - demand mismatches. Trump's changing policies may keep the premiums of New York market commodities high, which is not conducive to the outflow of Comex market inventory, and the short - term pressure on copper prices from the return of Comex copper inventory may not occur immediately [5]. - For gold, due to its strategic importance and role in the financial market, the state may introduce policies on gold purchases or quotas in the future, which may cause fluctuations in the domestic - foreign gold premium and make cross - market arbitrage difficult [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Background - Since Trump took office, his changing tariff policies have led to continuous premiums in the prices of non - ferrous metals and precious metals in the New York market. Although the expected 50% tariff on refined copper did not materialize, the Comex copper premium dropped significantly. The abnormal changes in the domestic - foreign premium have occurred frequently in the past, and this report summarizes the background and market sentiment of previous abnormal domestic premiums and provides views on future premium fluctuations [12]. Past 20 - year Premium Abnormalities Review Sub - prime Crisis Forced Adjustment of China's Gold Import Quota Policy - In 2008, the international gold price first reached a peak of $1000 per ounce in March and then dropped to $680 in October due to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. With the implementation of the Fed's quantitative easing policy, the gold price rebounded to over $1200 in 2009. In China, due to inflation and limited investment channels, the demand for physical gold soared. The central bank increased its gold reserves from 600 tons to 1054 tons, strengthening market bullish expectations. However, due to strict import quota management, only a few state - owned commercial banks could import gold, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance and a significant difference between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the London market. In the first half of 2009, the domestic market changed from a discount to a premium, and the premium returned to a reasonable range in the second half of the year after the import quota was gradually relaxed [13][14]. International Gold Price Fluctuations from 2011 to 2013 Led to a Rise in Domestic Premium - From 2011 to 2013, the international gold price reached a high in 2011 and then dropped sharply in 2013, and the domestic gold price premium increased abnormally. In August 2011, due to the European and American debt crises and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the international gold price soared, while the domestic supply could not meet the sudden increase in demand due to quota management, capital account restrictions, and exchange - rate expectations, resulting in a premium of about 20 - 30 yuan per gram. In early 2012, during the Chinese New Year gold consumption season, the domestic supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and the premium also reached over 20 yuan per gram. In 2013, the international gold price dropped sharply due to the Cyprus debt crisis and the Fed's plan to reduce bond purchases. Chinese consumers launched a gold - buying spree, and the central bank tightened the import channels, resulting in a premium of over 30 yuan per gram at the peak [24][25][26]. The "Financing Copper" Effect Pushed up the Domestic Copper Premium around the 8.11 Exchange - rate Reform - Around the 8.11 exchange - rate reform in 2015, the domestic copper premium increased significantly. The premium logic of the copper market is more complex, involving the dual game of "financing demand" and "depreciation arbitrage". The expectation of RMB depreciation led enterprises to conduct cross - border arbitrage through copper trade, causing the bonded - area copper inventory to exceed 600,000 tons and the domestic copper price to have a premium of up to 1,700 yuan per ton compared with the LME price. In early 2016, the supply - side reform led to expectations of copper smelter production cuts, further expanding the premium. The regulatory authorities took measures in the third quarter of 2016 to reduce the price difference, and the domestic premium peak in 2016 was about 2,000 yuan per ton [36]. The COVID - 19 Pandemic Caused Significant Premiums in Domestic Copper and Silver - In 2020, due to the different economic recovery paces between China and the rest of the world during the COVID - 19 pandemic, there were significant price premiums in the domestic silver and copper markets. The domestic silver price premium exceeded 200 yuan per kilogram in the second quarter, and the copper price premium reached 1,500 yuan per ton in May. The silver premium was driven by the booming photovoltaic industry, blocked import channels, and increased investment demand. The copper premium was due to China's infrastructure stimulus plan, a sharp decrease in scrap copper imports, and exchange - rate - related hedging behavior. The regulatory authorities took measures such as increasing import quotas and releasing state - reserve copper, and by the fourth quarter of 2020, the premiums returned to normal levels [41][42][43]. The Adjustment of the Gold Import Quota Led to a Rise in the Domestic Premium from 2023 to 2024 - From 2023 to 2024, the domestic - foreign gold price difference was inverted due to the central bank's quota control on gold imports. Geopolitical risks and the downturn in the domestic real estate market increased investors' demand for gold. Some enterprises and investors found ways to bypass the quota policy through financial innovation, which weakened the policy's effectiveness and increased the complexity and volatility of the domestic gold pricing system. As the bank's gold import quota was gradually relaxed, the premium gradually returned [47]. Summary - High premiums are usually driven by factors such as supply - demand mismatches, quota restrictions, exchange - rate expectations, or policy limitations. After Trump took office, his tariff policies overshadowed other factors. After China's exchange - rate reform and policy transition, the large - scale fluctuations in the premiums of non - ferrous sector commodities caused by exchange - rate and "financing copper" issues may decrease in the future. Current premium fluctuations are mainly due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic - foreign supply - demand mismatches. Trump's changing policies may keep the premiums of New York market commodities high, which is not conducive to the outflow of Comex market inventory, and the short - term pressure on copper prices from the return of Comex copper inventory may not occur immediately. For gold, the state may introduce policies on gold purchases or quotas in the future, which may cause fluctuations in the domestic - foreign gold premium and make cross - market arbitrage difficult [51].

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects the euro to rise against the US dollar, predicting it will reach 1.23 by June 2026, up from a previous forecast of 1.20 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Currency Forecast** - UBS has raised its euro to dollar exchange rate forecast for June 2026 to 1.23, an increase from the previous expectation of 1.20 [1] - The forecast for the end of 2025 has also been adjusted upward to 1.21 from an earlier prediction of 1.16 [1] - **Investment Strategy** - The firm highlights the euro as a key alternative currency for global investors looking to diversify away from the US dollar [1] - UBS describes the euro as the "default" alternative choice for these investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has consecutively lowered its inflation forecast for 2025 for six weeks, now predicting a rate of 5.18%, still above the target range of 3% ± 1.5% [1] Inflation Expectations - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down from 5.20% to 5.18% [1] - Despite the decrease, the inflation expectation remains above the upper limit of the target range, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving inflation control [1] Monetary Policy - In response to inflationary pressures, the Central Bank has raised the benchmark interest rate seven times since last year, currently standing at 15.0% [1] - The Central Bank will continue to assess the effects of monetary policy transmission and does not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes if necessary [1] Economic Growth and Currency Expectations - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised up from 2.21% to 2.23% [1] - The exchange rate expectation remains stable, with the market anticipating a USD to Brazilian Real exchange rate of 5.70 by the end of 2025 [1] - The market generally holds a cautiously optimistic view on Brazil's economic growth prospects [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold cross - market spread structure mainly comes from regional gold price differences and is also affected by exchange - rate expectation changes. Short - term fluctuations in regional gold price differences may still lead to obvious arbitrage opportunities in the gold cross - market spread, but the current opportunities from exchange - rate expectations are small. Future attention can be paid to the impact of changes in US tariff expectations on the gold cross - market spread [3][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Market Tracking - Gold, as a global asset, should theoretically have convergent prices in various markets. However, due to exchange - rate fluctuations, tariff policies, transportation costs, and market liquidity differences, cross - market spreads persist. When the COMEX gold price is higher than the SHFE price, forward arbitrage can be carried out; when the domestic price is higher than the international price, reverse arbitrage can be carried out [10] - From January to April, the Sino - US gold spread (Shanghai gold price minus the converted New York gold price) had relatively stable fluctuations with an average of about - 1 yuan/gram, providing basically no obvious arbitrage space. Since May, the spread has fluctuated significantly, with the average rising to 10.2 yuan/gram, creating many opportunities for cross - market spread arbitrage [11] 2. Gold Cross - Market Spread Structure Analysis - The gold cross - market spread is mainly composed of two variables: the price changes of Shanghai gold and New York gold, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate [5][15] - Globally, gold prices generally fluctuate in the same direction. From 2014 - 2025, after removing outliers, the change in the gold cross - market spread was mainly affected by regional gold price fluctuations, with the exchange - rate impact accounting for an average of 11.4% and the gold - price impact accounting for an average of 87.9% [16] - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is one of the factors affecting the Sino - US gold spread, but its impact is relatively smaller than that of regional gold price changes. When the RMB appreciates against the US dollar, the gold spread widens; when the RMB depreciates, the spread narrows. However, arbitrage trading makes the gold cross - market spread tend to converge, and when the exchange rate fluctuates significantly, the impact of the gold price and the exchange rate on the spread is often opposite, offsetting each other [20] 3. Spread Formation Reason Analysis - Regional gold price differences may mainly come from regional policy changes or short - term supply - demand imbalances. For example, in early 2025, the expectation of the US to impose tariffs on imported gold led to a significant widening of the COMEX - London spot gold spread. In early 2020, the COVID - 19 pandemic also caused the Sino - US and Euro - US gold price spreads to widen. In the long term, the gold cross - market spread center may slowly rise [24][25] - Although the impact of exchange - rate changes on the gold cross - market spread is small, large exchange - rate changes can cause short - term spread fluctuations. The gold cross - market spread implies the market's expectation of the exchange rate. When the market has no obvious expectation of exchange - rate changes, the exchange - rate impact on the gold cross - market spread is weak. Currently, there is no obvious deviation between the exchange rate implied by the gold price and the actual offshore exchange rate, so it has little impact on the gold spread [28][29] 4. Gold Cross - Market Spread Summary - The report analyzes the gold cross - market spread structure, formation reasons, and future development expectations. The spread structure mainly comes from regional gold price differences and exchange - rate expectation changes. Short - term regional gold price differences may bring arbitrage opportunities, while current exchange - rate expectations offer few opportunities. Future attention can be paid to US tariff expectations [32]