期货研究报告|贵金属与有色专题报告 2025-08-26 贵金属与铜内外盘异常溢价成因回顾及展望 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 背景： 021-60827969 fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03036024 投资咨询号：Z0014660 王育武 021-60827969 wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 当下特朗普多变的关税政策使得 Comex 市场品种普遍存在一定溢价，纽铜库存仍在持 续累高，但在过往 20 年的经验中，国内品种也同样不时存在相对异常的溢价，并且均 伴随着相对特殊的历史背景。本文总结了以往内盘出现异常溢价所伴随的特定市场背 景以及市场情绪，并结合当下情况，对未来溢价波动给出观点。 发现与结论： 通常而言，高溢价通常由供需错配、配额限制、汇率预期或政策限制等因素驱动。但 自特朗普就任以来，市场的目光以及关注点似乎都聚 ...

瑞银：预计2026年6月欧元对美元将升至1.23 金十数据7月16日讯，瑞银策略师表示，对于寻求分散美元持仓的全球投资者而言，欧元将成为核心替 代货币。因此，他们上调了对欧元汇率的预期。瑞银预计，到2026年6月，欧元对美元汇率将升至 1.23，高于2025年底1.21的预期水平；而此前对这两个时间点的预期分别为1.20和1.16。他们称："对于 寻求分散美元持仓的全球投资者来说，欧元是突出的'默认'替代选择。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has consecutively lowered its inflation forecast for 2025 for six weeks, now predicting a rate of 5.18%, still above the target range of 3% ± 1.5% [1] Inflation Expectations - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down from 5.20% to 5.18% [1] - Despite the decrease, the inflation expectation remains above the upper limit of the target range, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving inflation control [1] Monetary Policy - In response to inflationary pressures, the Central Bank has raised the benchmark interest rate seven times since last year, currently standing at 15.0% [1] - The Central Bank will continue to assess the effects of monetary policy transmission and does not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes if necessary [1] Economic Growth and Currency Expectations - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised up from 2.21% to 2.23% [1] - The exchange rate expectation remains stable, with the market anticipating a USD to Brazilian Real exchange rate of 5.70 by the end of 2025 [1] - The market generally holds a cautiously optimistic view on Brazil's economic growth prospects [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold cross - market spread structure mainly comes from regional gold price differences and is also affected by exchange - rate expectation changes. Short - term fluctuations in regional gold price differences may still lead to obvious arbitrage opportunities in the gold cross - market spread, but the current opportunities from exchange - rate expectations are small. Future attention can be paid to the impact of changes in US tariff expectations on the gold cross - market spread [3][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Market Tracking - Gold, as a global asset, should theoretically have convergent prices in various markets. However, due to exchange - rate fluctuations, tariff policies, transportation costs, and market liquidity differences, cross - market spreads persist. When the COMEX gold price is higher than the SHFE price, forward arbitrage can be carried out; when the domestic price is higher than the international price, reverse arbitrage can be carried out [10] - From January to April, the Sino - US gold spread (Shanghai gold price minus the converted New York gold price) had relatively stable fluctuations with an average of about - 1 yuan/gram, providing basically no obvious arbitrage space. Since May, the spread has fluctuated significantly, with the average rising to 10.2 yuan/gram, creating many opportunities for cross - market spread arbitrage [11] 2. Gold Cross - Market Spread Structure Analysis - The gold cross - market spread is mainly composed of two variables: the price changes of Shanghai gold and New York gold, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate [5][15] - Globally, gold prices generally fluctuate in the same direction. From 2014 - 2025, after removing outliers, the change in the gold cross - market spread was mainly affected by regional gold price fluctuations, with the exchange - rate impact accounting for an average of 11.4% and the gold - price impact accounting for an average of 87.9% [16] - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is one of the factors affecting the Sino - US gold spread, but its impact is relatively smaller than that of regional gold price changes. When the RMB appreciates against the US dollar, the gold spread widens; when the RMB depreciates, the spread narrows. However, arbitrage trading makes the gold cross - market spread tend to converge, and when the exchange rate fluctuates significantly, the impact of the gold price and the exchange rate on the spread is often opposite, offsetting each other [20] 3. Spread Formation Reason Analysis - Regional gold price differences may mainly come from regional policy changes or short - term supply - demand imbalances. For example, in early 2025, the expectation of the US to impose tariffs on imported gold led to a significant widening of the COMEX - London spot gold spread. In early 2020, the COVID - 19 pandemic also caused the Sino - US and Euro - US gold price spreads to widen. In the long term, the gold cross - market spread center may slowly rise [24][25] - Although the impact of exchange - rate changes on the gold cross - market spread is small, large exchange - rate changes can cause short - term spread fluctuations. The gold cross - market spread implies the market's expectation of the exchange rate. When the market has no obvious expectation of exchange - rate changes, the exchange - rate impact on the gold cross - market spread is weak. Currently, there is no obvious deviation between the exchange rate implied by the gold price and the actual offshore exchange rate, so it has little impact on the gold spread [28][29] 4. Gold Cross - Market Spread Summary - The report analyzes the gold cross - market spread structure, formation reasons, and future development expectations. The spread structure mainly comes from regional gold price differences and exchange - rate expectation changes. Short - term regional gold price differences may bring arbitrage opportunities, while current exchange - rate expectations offer few opportunities. Future attention can be paid to US tariff expectations [32]