冉学东 7月份物价指数的轻微上涨，浇灭了国债市场做多的热情，国债利率连续两日大涨，12日，十几年期国债利率上涨 1.113%到1.726%，30年期国债收益率上涨1.668%到2.011%，国债期货也是连续两天大跌，原因主要是周末出台的 CPI和PPI物价指数。这一次，尤其是核心物价的持续回升，对于物价趋势预期发生了重大影响。 8月9日，国家统计局发布了2025年7月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）。数据显 示，2025年7月CPI同比0.0%，前值0.1%，而预期是下降0.1%；核心CPI同比0.8%，前月0.7%。PPI同比-3.6%，预 期下降3.4%，前值-3.6%。 但是，反内卷政策的持续贯彻，必然会改善竞争秩序，我们看统计局解读最为权威，"全国统一大市场建设纵深推 进，煤炭、钢材、光伏、水泥和锂电等行业市场竞争秩序持续优化，煤炭开采和洗选业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加 工业、光伏设备及元器件制造、水泥制造、锂离子电池制造价格环比降幅比上月分别收窄1.9个、1.5个、0.8个、 0.3个和0.1个百分点，合计对PPI环比的下拉影响比上月减少0.14个百分点。" 核心CPI的上 ...

Core Insights - The core result of the July CPI data shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, aligning with market expectations, while the year-on-year increase is 2.7%, slightly below the anticipated 2.8% [1] - The core CPI has risen to 3.1% year-on-year, marking the highest level since February, primarily driven by a broad increase in service prices [1][3] Inflation Details - Specific sectors such as medical services, airfare, entertainment, household goods, and used cars have all seen price increases, with airfare experiencing a notable 4% rise in July, the largest monthly increase in three years [3] - Housing-related costs, including owners' equivalent rent and rent index, increased by 0.3%, while hotel accommodation prices decreased by 1% [3] - The "super core CPI," which excludes housing prices, rose by 0.55% month-on-month and 3.59% year-on-year, both reaching new highs since February, driven by transportation and medical service price increases [3] Market Reactions - The market interpreted the CPI report as a signal for potential interest rate cuts in September, with analysts suggesting that the overall inflation remains manageable despite some pressures in specific sectors [5] - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock futures surged, with the Nasdaq futures up 0.41%, S&P 500 futures up 0.36%, and Dow futures up 0.44% [7] - The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 95%, indicating strong market confidence in this outcome [7] Future Considerations - The focus will be on whether inflation can remain moderate and if the job market continues to cool, as these factors will influence the Federal Reserve's future actions [7]